Updated 30 March 2023: The CMI_2022 consultation described in Working Paper 168 closed on 28 February 2023 and the results of the consultation were published in Working Paper 173.
The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2022, by the end of June 2023.
Mortality in 2020 and early-2021 was volatile, making it difficult to assess the longer-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality. Over the last eighteen months, mortality has been less volatile than earlier in the pandemic. Mortality has been persistently higher than in 2019 for much of that period, with excess mortality being higher than COVID-19 mortality in recent months. This suggests that mortality in 2022 may be indicative of future mortality to some extent. Given that, we intend to make some allowance for the mortality experience of 2022 when calibrating CMI_2022.
For CMI_2022 we propose to retain the same structure and Core parameters as for CMI_2020 and CMI_2021, except for:
- updating the period of calibration data by one year as usual, to 1982-2022 for CMI_2022; and
- setting a weight of 25% for data in 2022.
Our intention is that the Core parameter for the weight should then increase for subsequent years until it reaches 100% for data in or around 2025. However, we are not committing to future weights at this time, and we will review the weights each year.
This paper seeks views of users of the Model on our proposal for CMI_2022. We would like to receive comments by 28 February 2023, and we aim to confirm our plans for CMI_2022 by the end of March 2023.
The Mortality Projections Committee held a webinar on 21 February 2023 which covered: recent mortality experience in the general population; the CMI_2022 consultation; and other recent outputs from the Committee. The webinar was presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Piero Cocevar (Committee member of the Mortality Projections Committee). Details on how to view a recording of the webinar are contained within this downloadable PDF (124, KB).
We have issued a spreadsheet containing further results of the scenario analysis described in the paper.
We have also issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation. This incorporates our proposed Core parameterisation, and an illustrative dataset for 2022, consistent with Working Paper 168. The software is intended to allow users to better understand the implications of our proposals and assist them in responding to the consultation.
Please note that:
- The illustrative software is provided as a “beta” version on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.
- Results from CMI_2022 will differ from those of the illustrative software.
Documents:
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