CMI Working Paper 175

CMI Working Paper 175 was published in May 2023 and contains analysis of historical mortality improvements and information on projecting mortality improvements to assist Subscribers in setting the projection parameters in the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The paper includes:

• Analysis of “structure-free” long-term mortality improvements for England & Wales using data available from the Human Mortality Database, including heatmaps and average improvements.
• Analysis of mortality improvements in England & Wales by socio-economic status, including Index of Multiple Deprivation (2001 to 2020) and National Statistics Socio-economic Classification (1982 to 2016).
• Analysis of “structure-free” long-term mortality improvements for 7 international territories with data since 1850 and 18 international territories with data since 1947 using data available from the Human Mortality Database.
• A summary of the projection and convergence parameters in the Model, including the methods used to set these parameters.
• A discussion of mortality projections models used by other organisations, including the ONS, Society of Actuaries in USA, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association and the Society of Actuaries in Ireland.

This paper does not provide a CMI view of the long-term rate of mortality improvements. As a matter of policy, the CMI requires users to form their own views.

The outputs that accompany this paper are:

• CMI Working Paper 175
• Spreadsheet of values used in charts in Working Paper 175.
• A Tableau Workbook allowing interactive exploration of selected charts in the working paper. Note that this requires access to Tableau Reader; this is free to download at: https://www.tableau.com/products/reader.

These outputs are available to Authorised Users only.