CMI Working Paper 169

CMI Working Paper 169 was published in February 2023. The working paper presents an analysis of the mortality experience of data received by 30 June 2022, covering the period 2014 to 2021. Much of the paper is in a similar format to recent annual experience analyses. However, it includes more detailed analysis of mortality in 2020 and 2021 in light of the pandemic, including monthly analysis and comparison to the general population. It also includes analysis by sector, as there have been material changes to the public sector dataset.

The paper compares the mortality experience for this dataset against the unadjusted "S3" Series tables and the "S3" Series tables projected with the CMI Mortality Projections Model (CMI_2021). Results are provided for the various pensioner categories, by calendar year and split into pension amount bands.

The analysis shows that:

• Mortality in the 2014-2021 dataset is slightly lighter than the unadjusted “S3” Series tables on a lives-weighted basis, but heavier than the “S3” tables on an amounts-weighted basis.
• For most groups, mortality tended to become lighter over the period to 2019 but was heavier in 2020 and 2021.
• Mortality shows sharp peaks in April 2020 and January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the increase in mortality between 2019 and 2020 appears to be lower for the SAPS dataset than in the general population. The volume of data for 2020 and 2021 is lower than earlier years, due to the triennial nature of data submissions. This means that care should be taken when looking at figures presented for this year in isolation, particularly when broken down (for example, by calendar month).

Summary files of the data

Files used in the analysis are available below. Please note that these files have been made available on the understanding that:

• although the CMI has made reasonable attempts to validate the data, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed and the CMI accepts no liability for its use; and
• any published comment or analysis should acknowledge the CMI as the source of the data.

There are three outputs that accompany this paper:

• A Tableau Workbook, allowing interactive exploration of selected charts in the working paper. Note that this requires access to Tableau Reader; this is free to download at: https://www.tableau.com/products/reader
• A spreadsheet that includes the data for the tables and charts in the report: “CMI WP169 Chart values v01 2023-02-14.xlsx”.
• A spreadsheet that includes exposed to risk and death data by individual age and year for Pensioners and Dependants: “CMI WP169 Dataset v01 2023-02-14.xlsx”.

Working Paper 169 is available to Authorised Users only.