Working Party Presentations
Working party updates have been pre-recorded and are now available to purchase. Please see the below list of those on offer at this years GIRO.
Third Party Working Party
Analysis includes trends in frequency, severity and burning cost for third party bodily injury claims (split by claim size); total third party property damage; and total own damage claims compared and contrasted with environmental and legislative changes. The aim this year will be to update the working party’s traditional analysis based on industry data up to 31 December 2019 and then consider emerging trends during 2020, that will, no doubt, be dominated by COVID-19, and what they might mean for reserving, pricing and possibly even capital.
Introduction to the working party
Eleventh iteration of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Third Party Working Party for Private Car Comprehensive experience. In addition to the working party’s traditional analysis of trends in frequency, severity and burning cost for:
- third party bodily injury claims;
- total third party property damage; and
- total own damage claims
compared and contrasted with environmental and legislative changes, they have also considered the significant impact the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Speakers: Simon Black and Robert Treen
IFRS17 Working Party update
The IFRS 17 for GI working party would like to provide an update including the newly published final standard and deep diving into a couple of implementation hot topics.
We have also been developing a series of component reports including measuring the illiquidity premium, PAA eligibility, reinsurance, communicating uncertainty in an IFRS 17 world - which we would love to summarise and share to support actuaries actively involved in IFRS 17 implementations.
Speakers: Alice Boreman
Developments in the Insurtech Scene
The IFoA GI Insurtech Working Party has been carrying out research focused on the four main technologies driving innovation in insurance: IoT devices and sensors; video, image and audio processing; blockchain and parametric solutions; AI, big data and robotic process automation.
We would like to present the findings to GIRO, including:
- An overview of each technology
- The applications to insurance
- Data and analytics
- The impact on actuarial work and opportunity
- Examples of actual use cases
Speakers: Ed Plowman, Cherry Chan, Hugo Clugston, Raghav Ohri and Harjit Saini
PPO Working Party Quantitative Survey Update
This session will cover:
- An overview of the most recent PPO data analysis (year end 2019).
- There will be a focus on PPO Propensity trends but we will also pick out key differences/trends we see.
- We will also compare the quantitative results with what we heard from our contributors as part of the qualitative survey carried out over the year end 2019.
Speakers: Patrick Tingay, Chris Francis and Peter Towers
Machine Learning in Reserving
The aim of the General Insurance Machine Learning in Reserving Working Party (MLR WP) is to help develop the use of machine learning (ML) techniques in reserving. The session will include:
- Sarah MacDonnell and Jacque Friedland presenting survey findings showing how ML is currently being used in reserving in the UK and Canada,
- Grainne McGuire from Taylor Fry introducing the materials the working party is publishing to help actuaries learn how to apply ML in reserving,
- Nigel Carpenter from RSA walking us through the Baudry model on individual claims,
- and Kevin Kuo from R Studio discussing papers that have applied Neural Networks to reserving.
More information can be found here.
Speakers: Sarah MacDonnell, Grainne Maguire, James Tanser, Kevin Kuo, Nigel Carpenter and Jacque Friedland
Solvency II Practical Review Working Party Update
Has Solvency II remained resilient amidst the pandemic? Has it achieved its objectives? Will there be change in (re)insurer behaviour following Covid 19?
(Re)insurers have been impacted differently, from those facing minimal impact, such as motor insurers, against those facing lawsuits, such as commercial insurers exposed to business interruption. The industry has already started seeing changes in behaviour such as reviewing policy wording. Are there other changes to look out for?
To answer these questions, the working party has gathered views via market surveys and analysis of publicly available data, the results of which will be presented during this talk.
Speakers: Amrita Pattni, Amo Grewal, Nina Ndebele, Yuming Mei, Madhuri Kumar, Avtar Singh and Shan Hirani
How has COVID-19 impacted your SII processes?
Have your say by taking part in our survey. The survey closes 20 November 2020 and takes less than 5 minutes to complete.
Can We Trust Reserving? Reserving Process Validation under Covid-19
Experiences from London market, personal and commercial lines actuaries & explores the impact of Covid-19 on Reserving Process Validation.
This will explore the impact on validation processes and look at the slow reaction of AvE and business planning processes, inadequate leading-edge data and reaction to potential second waves/vaccines.
The key is to equip actuaries for validation in a world under stress with a robust validation framework.
This needs to be achieved whilst reserving actuaries struggle with time and resource.
This session will look at the lived experiences of reserving actuaries and reserving process validation through the pandemic.
Speakers: William Diffey, Laura Hobern, Ed Harrison and Malcolm Cleugh
A Practitioner’s Introduction to Stochastic Reserving: The 1 Year View
An overview of the Pragmatic Stochastic Reserving Working Party's recent paper "A Practitioner’s Introduction to Stochastic Reserving: The One year view" which can be downloaded from the working party's page on the IFoA website here
The talk will be introductory. I will describe and discuss three commonly use methods for calculating one-year reserve risk: the Merz-Wüthrich formula, the Actuary-in-the-Box, and Emergence Patterns. I will avoid technical details as far as possible, and attempt to give an intuitive description of the methods, and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
Speaker: Robert Scarth
A Practical Guide to Better Reserving in the Wake of Covid-19
"What should (reserving/ pricing/ capital) actuaries do different in light of Covid (to BSRCH). And a practical guide on how to do it"
- How to see and assess the process:
- Open system thinking
- Insurance factory analogy
- Engineering analogy
- Control charts
- How to work out what is most important for you:
- Go through Company Business Model and ask questions
- Group answers into common themes
- Prioritise themes and items within them on expected importance/ impact
- Strategies for exploiting the identified opportunities (your deficiencies!)
- Looking for data that informs on the changes
- Could use ideas from Tim Harford https://timharford.com/books/adapt/, which I find useful
Speakers: Chris Smerald and Ian Thomas
Opening Up a Good Actuarial Report
The Good Actuarial Report Working Party have been thinking about how ideas from outside the actuarial profession – like Systems Science – can help us think more carefully about our communication challenges.
In addition we will share some tips from our own experience on how to enable a revolution, not just gradual evolution, in your actuarial reporting templates.
Join us for a brief presentation followed by an opportunity to share your own report writing challenges and discuss ideas, tips and techniques to help you delight your readers and get great feedback.
Speakers: Chris Smerald and Matt Byrne
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