Actuarial practitioners have traditionally utilised conventional economic theory to identify the approach to adopt in economic and financial issues. For example, using the Black-Scholes formula to value options held by their client companies, or relying upon the Efficient Markets Hypothesis to explain and validate the valuation of shareholdings.
The experience of the 2008 economic and financial crisis challenged conventional economic tools, with other schools of economic thought brought into sharp focus. This has opened up a number of questions that the IFoA would like to explore through a research programme focused on economic modelling.
Project Summary
Dr Iain Clacher of Leeds University Business School was engaged in June 2017 to undertake the first phase of the research; a survey of the economic theories used, both explicitly and implicitly, by firms which employ actuaries in the UK. Dr Clacher undertook a series of detailed interviews with a range of experts, both internal and external to the Profession, looking at economic theories in common use in actuarial practice. Dr Clacher's initial findings were discussed at a recent Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) event with senior actuaries and experts, looking at how the Profession could improve economic understanding in areas that inform actuarial work. Following these thought-provoking discussions, ARC and IFoA actuarial volunteers will be progressing further research and stakeholder discussion to ensure the profession is contributing to, and learning from, this important debate. Dr Clacher's report - summarising his research findings - will be published soon.
Research Methodology
Face to face interviews with relevant individuals working in firms including, but not limited to, insurance companies, consultancies, banks and pension funds. The research will be carried out in two phases to allow for a round table event at which preliminary results can be used to guide the second phase of research.
Expected Outputs
The expected initial output of this research is a report summarising Dr Clacher's findings as well as presentations at relevant IFoA events.
ARC Launch Event, May 2018: The economic modelling programme hosted a round table launch event on 29 May 2018 at Staple Inn Hall, to share thinking so far, following a series of confidential interviews of leading actuarial thinkers in a wide range of roles. An introduction to the ARC's Economic Modelling programme was given by Professor Mark Cross (Chair of the IFoA's Research and Thought Leadership Board). Dr Iain Clacher and Professor Steve Keen also presented at this event. A report summarising Dr Clacher's findings will be available in due course.
View Dr Iain Clacher's presentation
View Professor Steve Keen's presentation
IFoA Life Conference, November 2017: Dr Iain Clacher (Leeds University Business School) delivered a workshop on "Economic Theory and Actuarial Practice". Following this, the economic modelling programme will host a round table event to share thinking and look at how the Profession could improve economic thought in actuarial practice.
View Dr Iain Clacher's presentation
In the News
'Animal spirits' vs the efficient market hypothesis. Alex Waite asks whether actuaries are evolving to remain relevant in their economic predictions. Read the full article in The Actuary.
In a letter to The Actuary Mr W John Bishop, FIA responds to the article.
| Principal researcher: | Dr Iain Clacher |
|---|---|
| Lead institution: | Leeds University Business School |
| Start date: | 01 November 2016 |
| End date: | tbc |
Contact Details
If you want more information about our research programmes please contact the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre:
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Events calendar
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KSS Event - Data Visualisation as a Powerful Means of Communication – Examples from the IFoA Working Party
Prudential Craigforth FK9 4UE23 April 2019Data Visualisation helps to communicate information clearly and effectively through graphical means. This talk will showcase some visualisations that the working party has found useful for common actuarial situations. To book you place please contact jane.hamilton@prudential.co.uk
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TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE25-26 April 2019
This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas. -
KSS event – Data Visualisation as a Powerful Means of Communication – Examples from the IFoA Working Party (Glasgow)
Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow G2 2JJ25 April 2019Data Visualisation helps to communicate information clearly and effectively through graphical means. This talk will showcase some visualisations that the working party has found useful for common actuarial situations. To register, please email Ji-Hyang.Lee@Barnett-Waddingham.co.uk
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NOCA event – Technological Developments and the Future of Insurance
N/A25 April 2019Presented by Yossi Sirote
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Task force on climate related financial disclosures (TCFD) - introduction and perspectives for our professions
Online webinar25 April 2019In collaboration with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, IEMA is delighted to host this important Webinar. This is an opportunity to hear first-hand from Steve Waygood, an industry leader and member of the TCFD, and from two leading practitioners from the environmental sustainability and actuarial professions.
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KSS events – Data Visualisation as a Powerful Means of Communication – Examples from the IFoA Working Party (Edinburgh)
Standard Life 30 Lothian Rd, Edinburgh EH1 2DH25 April 2019Data Visualisation helps to communicate information clearly and effectively through graphical means. This talk will showcase some visualisations that the working party has found useful for common actuarial situations. The event is now full, however if you would like to join a waiting list, please email Barry_shannon@standardlife.com
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (30 April 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA30 April 2019 -
Francophone Actuaries Meeting 2019
Aviva, Saint Helen's, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ, UK2 May 2019L'Institut des Actuaires and French actuaries in the UK, partnered with Aviva, are delighted to be hosting their annual "l'afterwork" event for French speaking actuaries in the UK. The event will mix French and English interventions.
Register via this link to be added to the guest list: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/rencontre-annuelle-des-actuaires-francophones-londres-tickets-59758941603
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The CMI SAPS Mortality Committee and Mortality Projections Committee will be holding a joint webinar, aimed primarily at pension scheme trustees, describing considerations relating to setting longevity assumptions in 2019.
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SIAS EVENT - Hurricane Clustering: A New Reality?
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ7 May 2019The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record. We saw multiple hurricanes coming close together causing significant damage and human loss. The talk discusses whether 2017 was an exceptional year or indicative of what we expect to see in the near future, and the implications for (re)insurers.
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Professional Skills Webinar: Speaking Up, Whistleblowing – What do we Mean? Is there a Difference?AM
This event is a webinar9 May 2019
Do you know when, how, and to whom, you are required to Speak Up?
What do we mean by “Misconduct” under the IFoA’s Disciplinary and Capacity for Membership Schemes?
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IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu
Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu09-10 May 2019Offering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts. -
Professional Skills Webinar: Speaking Up, Whistleblowing – What do we Mean? Is there a Difference?PM
the event is a webinar9 May 2019
Do you know when, how, and to whom, you are required to Speak Up?
What do we mean by “Misconduct” under the IFoA’s Disciplinary and Capacity for Membership Schemes?
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DAG event - Can we overcome unconscious bias?
KPMG LLP Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh EH1 2EG9 May 2019
This session will examine our biases, look at what it feels like to be an outsider and give attendees practical tools and actions we can all take to support and grow diversity and inclusion, within the profession. This session is also designed to meet the objectives of the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training for experienced members. -
KSS event – GMP Equalisation - where are we now? Glasgow
KPMG 319 St Vincent Plaza Glasgow G2 5AS13 May 2019This talk will discuss the various methods available for equalising GMP, key considerations and actions for both Trustees and Companies, and a discussion of some of the associated legal issues. To register, please email Sarah.Dawes@KPMG.co.uk
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Welsh Actuarial Society event – The Annual Funding Statement 2019
Quantum Advisory’s Cardiff Office, Cypress House, Pascal Cl, St. Mellons CF3 0LW13 May 2019Join us as Neil Bull from the Pensions Regulator presents on “The Annual Funding Statement 2019”. His presentation will include a discussion on the key messages of the AFS 2019 including the Long Term Funding Target, maturity, what tPR expects of Trustees / Employers and the new regulatory approach.
RSVP
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KSS event – IQ+EQ = Future Success
Royal London, 1 Thistle Street, Edinburgh14 May 2019In this interactive session, our facilitators, Russell Borland and Thomas Chalmers, Partners of UK-based coaching consulting firm, Leading Figures, will explore how we can enhance our EQ to make the most of our IQ. They will introduce an Emotional Intelligence framework developed by psychologist Daniel Goleman and provide participants with an opportunity to personally assess their own Emotional Intelligence. To register please email Caitlin.stronach@royallondon.com
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CILA 2019
30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB14 May 2019CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe. -
Joint CIA, IFoA, SOA Webcast: Measuring Pension Plan Risk from an Economic Capital Perspective
WEBCAST15 May 2019Jointly sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Society of Actuaries, and CIA, this webcast will present research that compares the risk profiles of pension plans in the UK, the US, and Canada.
This webinar is eligible for CPD
At the end of this session, attendees will be able to:
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KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update
Willis Towers Watson 2 Lochrin Square, 96 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9QA15 May 2019This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond. The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. Please note this event is now full, however, if you wish to join a waiting list, please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (15 May 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA15 May 2019
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KSS event – Bulk Annuity Market Update
Willis Towers Watson 2 West Regent Street Glasgow G2 1RW16 May 2019This KSS talk will give a bulk annuity market update over 2018 and for 2019 and beyond. The presenters will also consider bulk annuity options as part of pension scheme de-risking strategies, and how pension schemes can best prepare when requesting a quote in order to achieve a favourable outcome. To book a place please email Dawn.Neil@willistowerswatson.com
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How to protect SMEs from Cyber Attacks
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ.16 May 2019The aim of this interdisciplinary symposium is to gain understanding and awareness of UK private SMEs about their insurance need as a part of cyber risk management and mitigation strategies.
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 May 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ16 May 2019 -
Risk and Investment Conference 2019
Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX20-21 May 2019This year's event begins with a Professional Skills Training plenary to help build your CPD, followed by a formal drinks reception and dinner on the evening of 20 May. The following day will then be a programme full of topical plenaries and workshops covering the latest trends and topical issues in the risk and investment sector with plenty of opportunities to network with colleagues and build your CPD. -
LMS Invited Lectures 2019
ICMS, The Bayes Centre, 47 Potterrow, Edinburgh EH8 9BT20 May 2019 - 24 May 2019On May 20-24 2019, Prof Søren Asmussen (Aarhus University) will deliver a course on lectures on advanced topics in life insurance mathematics. This will be held at the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh, and will be accompanied by supporting lectures from Prof Corina Constantinescu (University of Liverpool) and Prof Andrew Cairns (Heriot-Watt University). To register, please visit https://www.icms.org.uk/LMSAsmussen.php.
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Sessional Research Event - Saving for Retirement: Rules of Thumb
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ20 May 2019This event is fully booked. To join the waiting list plase click here. -
KSS events – GMP Equalisation - where are we now? Edinburgh
KPMG Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG23 May 2019This talk will discuss the various methods available for equalising GMP, key considerations and actions for both Trustees and Companies, and a discussion of some of the associated legal issues. To register please email Sarah.Dawes@KPMG.co.uk
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NoCA event – Optimising Copula Structures for Risk Management
N/A24 May 2019Presented by Richard Schneider
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Mortality and Longevity Symposium 2019
ICC Birmingham, Broad St, Birmingham B1 2EA04-05 June 2019The Mortality and Longevity Symposium aims to expand delegates’ horizons by giving a better view of the scope of current mortality research in a wide variety of relevant disciplines, and by providing a forum to discuss the implications for actuarial practice and it will be of interest to all actuaries concerned with setting or reviewing mortality and longevity assumptions, underwriters, demographers, epidemiologists, policy- -
Protection, Health and Care Conference 2019
ICC Birmingham Broad St, Birmingham B1 2EA04-06 June 2019The Protection, Health and Care Conference is an annual conference aimed at all insurance professionals with a passion for harnessing insurance risk in their organisations. The conference uses a combination of workshops by individuals who work at the coalface and ‘big name’ experts to explore how innovation, technological/medical advances, the political landscape and other market development will impact the Protection, Health and Care markets. -
Professional Skills Training - London (12 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ12 June 2019
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NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ18 June 2019Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals. In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood. -
Pensions Conference 2019
Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD18-19 June 2019Covering current topics and industry trends, the conference also includes a pre-conference evening dinner (18 June) giving you the opportunity to develop your network. -
KSS event – FinTech and The Actuarial Profession
EY, Atria One, 144 Morrison Street, Edinburgh19 June 2019This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.
To book your place, please email Barry_Shannon@standardlife.com
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Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019
Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ19 June 2019CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics. The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. -
KSS Event: How to Stop Bad Data Driving out the Good (In an Age of Misuse, Misleadingness and Misinformation)
Edinburgh Hymans Robertson, 1 Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh EH3 8BL20 June 2019Fake news, post truth, mistrust of experts... a familiar roll call of anxieties – or perhaps clichés – about our data rich world. They point to an underlying fear that in this data abundant age the bad data drives out the good and we are left with a broken public discourse.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (20 June 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA20 June 2019 -
Sessional: Why the Pensions Dashboard is more than a data collection exercise
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 June 2019The pensions dashboard has been talked about across the industry for a long time and now nears implementation with DWP’s consultation ending in January 2019. -
Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ25 June 2019 -
AGM and Presidential Address 2019
The Hub Castlehill Edinburgh EH1 2NE26 June 2019
Notice is hereby given that the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the INSTITUTE AND FACULTY OF ACTUARIES will be held at The Hub, Edinburgh on Wednesday 26 June 2019 at 16.30 (Preceded by tea from 16.00) and followed by a PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS given by John Taylor.
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SIAS: The Impact of Air Pollution on Health and Life Expectancy
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 July 2019Air pollution has gained increasing attention lately. Nicola Oliver, head of longevity and mortality research for Medical Intelligence, will discuss not only the impacts of air pollution on health and life expectancy but also how as an industry we should be addressing it.
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GIRO Conference 2019
EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE24-26 September 2019GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year.