Actuarial practitioners have traditionally utilised conventional economic theory to identify the approach to adopt in economic and financial issues. For example, using the Black-Scholes formula to value options held by their client companies, or relying upon the Efficient Markets Hypothesis to explain and validate the valuation of shareholdings.
The experience of the 2008 economic and financial crisis challenged conventional economic tools, with other schools of economic thought brought into sharp focus. This has opened up a number of questions that the IFoA would like to explore through a research programme focused on economic modelling.
Project Summary
Dr Iain Clacher of Leeds University Business School was engaged in June 2017 to undertake the first phase of the research; a survey of the economic theories used, both explicitly and implicitly, by firms which employ actuaries in the UK. Dr Clacher undertook a series of detailed interviews with a range of experts, both internal and external to the Profession, looking at economic theories in common use in actuarial practice. Dr Clacher's initial findings were discussed at a recent Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) event with senior actuaries and experts, looking at how the Profession could improve economic understanding in areas that inform actuarial work. Following these thought-provoking discussions, ARC and IFoA actuarial volunteers will be progressing further research and stakeholder discussion to ensure the profession is contributing to, and learning from, this important debate. Dr Clacher's report - summarising his research findings - will be published soon.
Research Methodology
Face to face interviews with relevant individuals working in firms including, but not limited to, insurance companies, consultancies, banks and pension funds. The research will be carried out in two phases to allow for a round table event at which preliminary results can be used to guide the second phase of research.
Expected Outputs
The expected initial output of this research is a report summarising Dr Clacher's findings as well as presentations at relevant IFoA events.
ARC Launch Event, May 2018: The economic modelling programme hosted a round table launch event on 29 May 2018 at Staple Inn Hall, to share thinking so far, following a series of confidential interviews of leading actuarial thinkers in a wide range of roles. An introduction to the ARC's Economic Modelling programme was given by Professor Mark Cross (Chair of the IFoA's Research and Thought Leadership Board). Dr Iain Clacher and Professor Steve Keen also presented at this event. A report summarising Dr Clacher's findings will be available in due course.
View Dr Iain Clacher's presentation
View Professor Steve Keen's presentation
IFoA Life Conference, November 2017: Dr Iain Clacher (Leeds University Business School) delivered a workshop on "Economic Theory and Actuarial Practice". Following this, the economic modelling programme will host a round table event to share thinking and look at how the Profession could improve economic thought in actuarial practice.
View Dr Iain Clacher's presentation
In the News
'Animal spirits' vs the efficient market hypothesis. Alex Waite asks whether actuaries are evolving to remain relevant in their economic predictions. Read the full article in The Actuary.
In a letter to The Actuary Mr W John Bishop, FIA responds to the article.
| Principal researcher: | Dr Iain Clacher |
|---|---|
| Lead institution: | Leeds University Business School |
| Start date: | 01 November 2016 |
| End date: | tbc |
Contact Details
If you want more information about our research programmes please contact the IFoA Actuarial Research Centre:
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Events calendar
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ARC Event on Periodical Payment Orders
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ20 February 2019The IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre (ARC) is convening a research event on the subject of Periodical Payment Orders (PPOs) in late February 2019.
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IFRS17 Workshop, 21 February
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ21 February 2019
The Life Board and Life Lifelong Learning Sub-committee are running this half-day workshop on IFRS 17.They will provide a detailed understanding of the key concepts of the standard, as well as discuss how implementation will impact people, process and systems. They will also share views on how the new standard will change the way insurers are viewed in the market, and share perspectives from within and outside of the profession.
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NoCA UK Teleconference–A Risk Management perspective on Artificial Intelligence and FinTech
N/A22 February 2019This teleconference will be presented by Isaac Alfon
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Sessional Event: Antibiotic Resistance Working Party
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 9 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ25 February 2019The IFoA Antibiotic Resistance Working Party has studied the rise of Antibiotic resistance (‘ABR’) and how it has become an increasing concern to the medical professions, health services and governments of the world’s major economies. -
Data Science: Opportunities for Actuaries
The IFoA's first virtual event26 February 2019 - 28 February 2019The IFoA are launching their first virtual conference on the topic of Data Science, that is free to attend. This is an exciting and forward thinking move to reach members all over the world and to share knowledge and discuss developments and techniques within data science. -
Professional Skills Training - London (26 February 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ26 February 2019 -
Leicester Actuarial Science Society presents the 5th Annual Worshipful Company of Actuaries Lecture
The University of Leicester, Ken Edwards Lecture Theatre 3 (see map and directions)27 February 2019IFoA President-Elect, John Taylor will discuss his work on 'robo advice' and the implications of technology for the future of the profession, but also his thoughts about the immediate priorities for the actuarial profession based on his first year with the Presidential Team.
The Worshipful Company of Actuaries will also be explaining their work and presenting two prizes: one each to the best performing 2nd year and 3rd year BSc Mathematics and Actuarial Science student at the University during the session.
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ARC: ERM Results Launch Event
Staple inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ28 February 2019This event is now full. We do operate a waiting system for this event should there become availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
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SIAS Event: Challenges and Opportunities for Actuaries Working in Data Science
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ4 March 2019This talk will present examples of the use of data science in the General Insurance and Health and Care practice areas. It will highlight some of the opportunities and challenges for actuaries in using the latest data science techniques in these fields.
- Lisa Balboa will present on using predictive analytics to improve health care forecasting.
- Alexander Hanks will present a practical example of training a neural network to fit curves to general insurance claims data.
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Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - London
Ect Venues, 200 Aldersgate, St. Pauls, London EC1A 4HD5 March 2019This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018. Book now to ensure your place. -
Life and F&I One Day Workshop
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ11 March 2019This cross-practice event for Life actuaries and those in finance and investments roles offers high-quality CPD with a series of thought-provoking presentations covering economics and financial markets, responsible investment, CMA review outcome, FCA requirements, asset analytics, and much more. -
Spring Lecture 2019, Edinburgh - Sir John Curtice
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board. The Edinburgh and London venues are now full. However, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world.
We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend.
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Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at the Lloyds Building - Professor Sir John Curtice
The Old Library, Lloyds, One Lime Street, London, EC3M 7HA13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board.Following the popularity of this year’s Spring Lecture, delivered by Professor Sir John Curtice, an additional venue has been sourced for those wishing to attend a London Livestream event.
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Spring Lecture 2019, Live stream at Staple Inn - Professor Sir John Curtice
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ13 March 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board. Following the popularity of this year’s Spring Lecture, delivered by Professor Sir John Curtice, an additional venue has been sourced for Members to attend a London Livestream event at the Lloyd's building. Please register here. Alternatively, you can still register here to view the event live online, allowing those who cannot attend in person to stream the lecture to their computer, laptop, tablet, and phones wherever they are in the world. -
Sessional Meeting: Investment risk for long term investors - risk measurement approaches
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ18 March 2019The term ‘investment risk’ is often used loosely, and frequently confused with the notion of short term price volatility, particularly for equity instruments. For the long term investor, however, what is most apposite is the ability to meet future real cash flows as they become due. -
Highlights of the Life Conference 2018 - Edinburgh
Apex Grassmarket Hotel, 31-35 Grassmarket, Edinburgh EH1 2HS19 March 2019This event will cover the highlights from the Life Conference 2018 held in Liverpool. The Conference Committee has reviewed session feedback and has put together a high-quality technical programme featuring the best sessions from the Life Conference 2018. Book now to ensure your place. -
Professional Skills Training - London (19 March 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ19 March 2019 -
KSS event - FinTech and The Actuarial Profession
Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ20 March 2019This KSS talk from FinTech Scotland's CEO will explore the mission to create an integrated Fintech ecosystem through provision of funding, support, infrastructure and talent that recognises and responds to the needs of all stakeholders - and the overarching aim for Scotland to be one of the top 5 Fintech global leaders by 2020.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (26 March 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA26 March 2019
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event – To Omega and beyond: the evolution of longevity
N/A29 March 2019Presented by Stuart McDonald
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Sessional Meeting: Improving understanding and transparency around the assessment of the inflations
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ15 April 2019This event is now fully booked. We do operate a waiting system for each of the Edinburgh and London venues should there be availability, which you can register for here and be added to the waitlist. We will email everyone on the waiting list nearer the time to confirm whether there is availability for them to attend. -
Professional Skills Training - London (16 April 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ16 April 2019Please register here to join the wait list
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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TIGI 2019 (Technical Issues in General Insurance)
Royal College of Physicians, 11 St Andrews Place, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4LE25-26 April 2019This General Insurance CPD offering has been changed from former years of individual one day seminars to include individual sessions for IFRS 17, Pricing, Capital Modelling and Reserving over a two-day event packaged as Technical Issues in General Insurance, providing attendees with a varied program . The event is suitable for anyone who works, or are interested, in these areas. -
NOCA event – Technological Developments and the Future of Insurance
N/A25 April 2019Presented by Yossi Sirote
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (30 April 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA30 April 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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IFoA Asia Conference 2019, Chengdu
Crowne Plaza Chengdu Panda Garden, Poly Park 198, No. 1980 ShuLong Avenue,Xindu District, Chengdu09-10 May 2019Offering a diverse selection of plenary sessions and cross-practice workshops, the annual Asia Conference is the perfect opportunity to discover and discuss current and developing actuarial topics in Asia, whilst providing excellent opportunity to grow your network of contacts. -
CILA 2019
30 Euston Square, London NW1 2FB14 May 2019CILA is one of the pre-eminent events in the annual Life calendar. It is aimed at practicing life actuaries from life offices, consulting firms and other employers of actuaries. It will also be of interest to all those who work in or advise on, the life assurance market in the UK and Europe. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (15 May 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA15 May 2019
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 May 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ16 May 2019 -
Risk and Investment one day Conference 2019
Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, Strand, London WC2N 5HX20-21 May 2019This year's Risk and Investment Conference will be taking place at Amba Hotel, Charing Cross, London.To book your place click here.
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Sessional Research Event - Saving for Retirement: Rules of Thumb
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ20 May 2019How much does the average person need to save over a full working life to provide a decent retirement income? We call this the Lifetime Pension Contribution (LPC) and have attempted to quantify it. -
NoCA event – Optimising Copula Structures for Risk Management
N/A24 May 2019Presented by Richard Schneider
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Professional Skills Training - London (12 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ12 June 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NED Event: Behavioural Finance and Boards
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ18 June 2019Substantial work has been undertaken in the field of behavioural finance to explore the psychological factors affecting investment decisions made by individuals. In contrast, “behavioural” factors (such as politics or human psychology) affecting decisions and actions made by institutional investors, such as insurers or pension schemes, are less understood. -
Pensions Conference 2019
Bristol Marriott Hotel City Centre, 2 Lower Castle Street, Old Market, Bristol, BS1 3AD18-19 June 2019This year's Pensions Conference will be taking place at the Bristol Marriott City Centre. -
Current Issues in General Insurance (CIGI) 2019
Inmarsat, 99 City Road, London, EC1Y 1BJ19 June 2019CIGI will provide an excellent and diverse line-up of speakers, each providing their insight and knowledge on a range of topics. The programme will be broad in nature, so will be of most value to those with some experience in the industry. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (20 June 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA20 June 2019 -
Sessional: Why the Pensions Dashboard is more than a data collection exercise
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 June 2019The pensions dashboard has been talked about across the industry for a long time and now nears implementation with DWP’s consultation ending in January 2019. -
Professional Skills Training - London (25 June 19)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ25 June 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2018/2019. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.