This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.
Chaired by Vicky Gardner, IFoA Health and Care Research Sub-committee Deputy Chair, there will be ample time for discussion and debate during the evening.
Josephine Robertson: Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes
Undertaking quantitative analysis on secondary UK linked care data, the initial plan is to assess transitions through states of type II diabetes including pre-diabetic, new and established diabetic and respective cost profiles of well managed or less so. An area of initial interest would be to assess the pace of transition by risk strata and the profile of those with a high-cost profile compared to others in the same state. Therefore, can a risk profile of those who are Impactable be created; potential to regress through diabetic states and potential to impact via early preventative intervention for those less able to regress. This type of impactability modelling could be helpful in attributing research to health needs assessments, the efficacy of treatment, and potential preventative measures such as targeted social prescribing. This research could spark discussion within the H&C area on better understanding risk profiles, underwriting and product design for a prevalent NCD and open a dialogue on the PHMWP work within impactability modelling.
Mary Hall, Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016
Influenza activity increases in the winter with resulting increases in morbidity and mortality rates, particularly at older ages. As the population ages, it becomes increasingly important to understand seasonal differences in mortality. This paper investigates seasonal mortality in England & Wales for ages 65-94 over the period 1993-2016 for all causes of death combined and by major cause of death (circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, neoplasms and all other causes of death combined). Government initiatives (fuel payments, cold weather payments, national influenza vaccination programme) aimed at reducing excess winter mortality are also discussed. Mortality improvements differed between the seasons with the winter experiencing greater improvements over the period compared with the summer. Analysis by cause of death showed a reduction over the period in the gap between winter and summer mortality for circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases while neoplasms and other causes of death showed little seasonal variation. However, mental and behavioural disorders (including Alzheimer’s and dementia) which are an increasingly important cause of death at older ages showed an increasing gap between summer and winter mortality. Seasonal mortality in England and Wales remains important and should be considered when considering the implications of an ageing population.
|17.00 - 19.30||The meeting will take place in Staple Inn Hall|
|17.00 – 17.30||Registration and refreshments|
|17.30 – 17.35||Chair’s welcome (Vicky Gardner, SCOR)|
|17.35 – 18.05||Josephine Robertson: Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes|
|18.05 – 18.15||Q&A|
|18.15 – 18.45||Mary Hall, Dublin City University: Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016|
|18.45 – 18.55||Q&A|
|18.55 – 19.00||Chair summarises discussion and evening, and closes the night|
|19.00 – 19.30||Networking and Drinks|
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
Nearest Public Transport
Chancery Lane Station