This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.
Chaired by Ewen Tweedie, PwC, member of the Health and Care Research Sub-committee, there will be ample time for discussion and debate during the evening.
Josephine Robertson: Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes
The background motivation for Impactibility modelling is summarised in terms of how it contributes to population health management and a learning health system. This understanding is leveraged to develop a impactibility modelling proof of concept using multi-state modelling. Quantitative analysis on secondary UK linked care data is undertaken to assess transition rates for Type II Diabetes Mellitus and tested for variation by IMD. The ability to transition to or maintain healthier BMI or controlled HbA1c could be considered as creating an impact. This proof of concept shows how the design of impactibility modelling can be directly and indirectly related to optimisation criteria for improving health under constraints. This type of modelling could be helpful in attributing research to health needs assessments, the effectiveness of treatment, and targeted preventative interventions. Impactibility modelling could spark discussion within the H&C area on better understanding risk profiles, underwriting and product design for a prevalent chronic condition.
Mary Hall, Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016
The UK experiences higher deaths in the winter relative to the other seasons with the seasonal differences in mortality increasing with age. As the population ages it becomes increasingly important to understand seasonal mortality trends and the implications for an aging population. This paper investigates seasonal mortality in England & Wales for ages 65-94 for all causes of death combined over the period 1993-2016 and by each major cause of death over the period 2001-2015. The reasons for higher deaths in winter are complex but influenza and cold/poor housing are recognised as major contributing factors. Government initiatives aimed at reducing the higher winter death rate are discussed. Females are more affected by seasonal differences in mortality than males experiencing a greater gap between summer and winter mortality rates than males. Mortality improvements differed between the seasons with the winter experiencing greater improvements over the period compared with the summer for both males and females. All the major causes of death, with the exception of Neoplasms, continue to exhibit seasonal differences in mortality. Seasonal differences in mortality in England & Wales, therefore, remain important and should be considered when analysing and modelling mortality at older ages.
|17.00 - 19.30||The meeting will take place in Staple Inn Hall|
|17.00 – 17.30||Registration and refreshments|
|17.30 – 17.35||Chair’s welcome (Ewen Tweedie, PwC)|
|17.35 – 18.05||Josephine Robertson: Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes|
|18.05 – 18.15||Q&A|
|18.15 – 18.45||Mary Hall, Dublin City University: Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016|
|18.45 – 18.55||Q&A|
|18.55 – 19.00||Chair summarises discussion and evening, and closes the night|
|19.00 – 19.30||Networking and Drinks|
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
Nearest Public Transport
Chancery Lane Station