Sessional Meeting: Evolution of Economic Scenario Generators, by the Extreme Events Working Party

“Some UK insurers have been using real-world economic scenarios for more than thirty years. Popular approaches have included random walks, time-series models, arbitrage-free models with added risk premiums or one-year distribution fits. Based on interviews with experienced practitioners, this workshop traces historical model evolution in the UK and abroad. We examine the possible catalysts for changes in modelling practice with a particular emphasis on regulatory and socio-cultural influences. We apply past lessons to provide a non-technical perspective on the direction in which firms may develop real world multi-period economic scenario generators in future.” - Extreme Events Working Party