Sessional Research Event: GBJ Working Party: Bias Guess and Expert Judgement in Actuarial Work

In October 2015 at the IFoA’s GIRO Conference, the Getting Better Judgement working party was awarded the  Brian Hey prize for their research paper ‘Bias Guess and Expert Judgement in Actuarial Work’ (available to download here).  Focussing on the process of judgement formation, this seminal paper applies insights gained from behavioural theory to the actuarial setting and explores the extent to which the judgements of actuaries and other insurance practitioners may be subject to bias. Further the paper examines the variable nature of expert judgements, provides tools for the practitioners to distinguish between judgements of high and low quality and explores methods to best elicit judgements from others in a way that reduces the potential for cognitive biases.

Aimed at all stakeholders in working in GI, with the underlying principles applicable to other fields, this event is suitable for those at the most junior levels right up to board members. Providing excellent insight and discussion, it will help practitioners and management to improve the robustness of their judgements.