CMI Working Paper 186

CMI Working Paper 186 was published in February 2024.

The paper describes the experience of pension annuities in payment in 2022, including some comparisons to experience in 2016-2019, 2020 and 2021. Values underlying charts, datasheets, and a Tableau workbook, allowing interactive exploration of selected charts are available as accompanying outputs. 

The analyses show that:

• For males, experience in 2022 is generally heavier than the projected “16” Series tables, with a downward shape by age band, on both a lives-weighted basis and, to a lesser extent, on amounts basis. Experience is 8% heavier than the projected tables at age band 65-69 and falling to be 1% heavier than the projected “16” Series tables for age band 90-94.
• For females, lives-weighted experience in 2022 is heavier than the projected “16” Series tables overall but lighter on amounts basis. Experience for females is 9% heavier in the 70-74 age band and falls to 2% lighter than the projected “16” Series tables in the 90-94 age band.
• Average mortality improvements over 2015-2019 are lower in the annuities dataset than improvements in the population for males, when experience is expressed as Standardised Mortality Rates (SMRs). For females, average mortality improvements over 2015-2019 are higher than for the population.
• For both males and females, mortality improvements in 2020 and 2021 are higher in the annuities dataset than the population, but in 2022 they have been lower. There is, however, greater uncertainty in the results for 2022, primarily due to uplifts made to allow for late reporting of deaths.
   

Outputs

There are three outputs that accompany this paper:

• A spreadsheet that includes the values underlying the charts in the working paper.
• Datasheets for 2021 and 2022, containing the detailed data, for example by individual age and product type.
• A Tableau Workbook, allowing interactive exploration of selected charts in the working paper. Note that this requires access to Tableau Reader; this is free to download at: https://www.tableau.com/products/reader.

The paper and accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.