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Continuous Mortality Investigation mortality projections

CMI Mortality Projections Model

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2013, was published alongside CMI Working paper 69 in September 2013.

Previous versions:

 

CMI library of mortality projections

The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the "92" series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.4, was released in April 2013. Note: this version of the Library is available to Authorised Users only.

Previous versions:

  • Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
  • Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
  • Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
  • Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.

 

Earlier projections

Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the “92” Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the "cohort projections") was later published in CMI Working paper 1 in December 2002.

The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request. For more information please click here.