The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021

CMI Working Paper 160 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2021 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2021. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality in 2020 and 2021 was significantly higher than mortality in years before the start of the pandemic. In light of this exceptional experience the Core version of CMI_2021 places no weight on data for 2020 or 2021, and 100% weight on all other years. This is consistent with the approach taken in CMI_2020 for data in 2020.

Core projections generated by CMI_2021 produce slightly lower cohort life expectancies than those produced by CMI_2020 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages. Increasing the 2021 weight parameter above the Core value leads to further falls in life expectancy compared to CMI_2020.

Working Paper 160 contains numerical results from CMI_2021 and commentary. It also contains an analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:

  • Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2021 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet. 
  • A spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the results working paper. 

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however, you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software then please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 5 April 2022, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss how Covid-19, social care, and climate change may affect future mortality. The slides and recording are now available. For the recording, please use the passcode: 4KP5=+s.

Documents

Note: The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the mortality projections page.

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Events calendar

  • CILA 2022

    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

  • Spaces available

    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

    The Business of the AGM

  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Houndsditch, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
    Spaces available

    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.

     

  • Spaces available

    This webinar will cover:

    • Some background on the risks of misselling in an ESG context, including the DWS case

    • Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities

    • This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership

    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

  • Spaces available

    This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on  the expected future changes. Through examining  the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial  expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.