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The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available on our website.

CMI Working Paper 160 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021.

Note: Version 2 beta of the CMI_2021 software was released in November 2022 so that the “live link” to the Human Mortality Database (HMD) will work after changes to the HMD website. The “beta” status reflects the possibility that the live link will not work for all users, depending on their IT setups.  

Assuming that no issues emerge, we intend to include the updated HMD functionality in CMI_2022. The software, and the updated user guide, which describes the various changes, can be obtained using the links below. Please note that beta versions of CMI Model software are provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. Should you encounter any bugs, glitches, lack of functionality or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2021 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2021. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality in 2020 and 2021 was significantly higher than mortality in years before the start of the pandemic. In light of this exceptional experience the Core version of CMI_2021 places no weight on data for 2020 or 2021, and 100% weight on all other years. This is consistent with the approach taken in CMI_2020 for data in 2020.

Core projections generated by CMI_2021 produce slightly lower cohort life expectancies than those produced by CMI_2020 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages. Increasing the 2021 weight parameter above the Core value leads to further falls in life expectancy compared to CMI_2020.

Working Paper 160 contains numerical results from CMI_2021 and commentary. It also contains an analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:

  • Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2021 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet. 
  • A spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the results working paper. 

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however, you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software then please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 5 April 2022, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss how Covid-19, social care, and climate change may affect future mortality. The slides and recording are now available. For the recording, please use the passcode: 4KP5=+s.

Documents

Note: The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the mortality projections page.

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