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Mortality Projections

Working Paper 137 CMI_2020 consultation (Issue date: 21/09/2020)
Working Paper 135 Results of the Subscriber survey and the Committee’s future plans (Issue date: 27/07/2020)
Working Paper 129 CMI Mortality Projections Model: CMI_2019 (Issue date: 02/03/2020)
Working Paper 127 Working Paper 127 CMI Mortality Projections Model – Interim update (v01 issue date: 13/12/2019, v02 issue date: 28/01/2020)
Working Paper 119 CMI Mortality Projections Model: CMI_2018 (v01 issue date: 07/03/2019; v02 issue date: 02/04/2019)
Working Paper 116 The value of the period smoothing parameter, Sk1, in CMI_2018 (Issue date: 01/02/2019)
Working Paper 115

CMI Mortality Projections Model – Interim update (v01 issue date: 19/12/2018; v02 issue date 07/03/2019

Working Paper 114

Consultation on the value of the period smoothing parameter, Sk (Issue date: 07/12/2018; response date: 18/01/2019)
Working Paper 111 Regular monitoring of England & Wales population mortality (Issue date: 23/10/2018; response date: 30/11/2018)
Working Paper 105 CMI Mortality Projections Model: CMI_2017 (v01 issue date: 01/03/2018; v02 issue date: 08/05/2018)
Working Paper 103

CMI Mortality Projections Model – Mid-year update (Issue date: 08/11/2017)

Working paper 99

CMI Mortality Projections Model: Software user guide (v01 issue date: 27/03/2017; v02 issue date: 08/11/2017)

Working paper 98 CMI Mortality Projections Model: Methods (Issue date: 27/03/2017)
Working paper 97

CMI Mortality Projections Model: CMI_2016 (v01 issue date: 27/03/2017; v02 issue date: 08/11/2017)

Working paper 93 CMI Mortality Projections Model: Consultation responses and plans for CMI_2016 (Issue date 29/11/2016; Reissued 02/12/2016)
Working paper 91 CMI Mortality Projections Model consultation - technical paper.  (Issues date 31/08/2016)
Working paper 90 CMI Mortality Projections Model consultation. (Issue date 22/06/2016; Reissued 31/08/2016; Response date 30/09/2016 )
Working paper 85 Initial report on the features of high age mortality.  (Issue date 16/10/2015)

Working paper 84

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2015. (Issue date 28/09/2015)

Working paper 83

Recent mortality in England and Wales. (Issue date 28/09/2015. Reissued 06/10/2015)

Working paper 82

The CMI format for heatmaps of mortality improvements. (Issue date 28/09/2015)

Working paper 80

The release dates of future updates to the CMI Mortality Projections Model (issue date: 26/06/2015)

Working paper 79

Consultation on the release date of future updates to the CMI Mortality Projections Model.  (Issue date: 16/03/2015; Response date: 16/04/2015)

Working paper 77

Report of the Graduation and Modelling Working Party (Issue date 06/03/2015)

Working paper 74

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2014 (Issue date: 24/11/2014; Response date: N/A)
Working paper 69 The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2013, and feedback on the consultation on the future of the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. (Issue date: 13/09/2013; Response date: N/A)

Working paper 64

Consultation on the future of the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and the CMI Mortality Projections Model (Issue date: 12/4/2013; Response date: 31/05/2013)

Working paper 63

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2012 (Issue date: 08/02/2013; Response date: N/A)

Working paper 55

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2011 (Issue date: 16/09/2011)

Working paper 54

Advancing the release date of the CMI Mortality Projections Model (Issue date: 04/08/2011; Response date: 09/09/2011)

Working paper 49

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, 'CMI_2010' (Issue date: 23/11/2010; Response date: n/a)

Working paper 41

CMI Mortality Projections Model - feedback on consultation and issue of 'CMI_2009' (Issue date: 25/11/2009)

Working paper 39

A prototype mortality projections model: Part two - a detailed analysis (Issue date: 7/07/2009)

Working paper 38

A prototype mortality projections model: Part one - an outline of the proposed approach (Issue date: 19/06/2009)

Working paper 37

Version 1.1 of the CMI library of mortality projections (Issue date: 13/03/2009)
Working paper 30 and the Library of mortality projections The CMI Library of mortality projections (Issue date: 23/11/2007)

Working paper 27

The "library" of mortality projections (Issue date: 11/07/2007)

Working paper 25

Stochastic projection methodologies: Lee-Carter model features, example results and implications (Issue date: 03/04/2007)

Working paper 20

Stochastic projection methodologies: further progress and P-Spline model features, example results and implication (Issue date: 05/04/2006)

Working paper 15

Projecting future mortality: towards a proposal for a stochastic methodology (Issue date: 20/07/2005)

Working paper 10

The mortality of impaired assured lives, 1991-2002 (Issue date: 08/11/2004)

Working paper 8

Considerations for the graduation of the 1999-2002 mortality experience (Issue date: 20/08/2004)

Working paper 3

Projecting future mortality: a discussion paper (Issue date: 12/03/2004)

Working paper 2

Responses to the draft report entitled A proposed interim basis for adjusting the 92 series mortality projections for cohort effects and further commentary thereon. (Issue date: 10/12/2002)

Working paper 1

An interim basis for adjusting the 92 series mortality projections for cohort effects. (Issue date: 10/12/2002)


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Events calendar

  • Asia Conference Webinar Series

    7 September 2020 - 25 September 2020

    Spaces available

    There will be a prestigious line-up of international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia.  The conference will take place throughout September via an online platform. The webinars consist of plenary speaking sessions and a series of workshop sessions including Life, GI, Data Science, Sustainability, Risk Management and Investment.

    This will be the perfect opportunity for you to discover,ask questions and be at the forefront of current and developing actuarial/financial topics and trends in Asia.


  • Spaces available

    This free 90 minute webinar is designed to support the IFoA CPD Co-ordinators, and others, involved in supporting our members to achieve their CPD requirements. 

    The programme will include an overview of the new CPD Scheme; specifically sharing with you key messages to support you implement and embrace the new CPD Scheme for our members within your organisation and regional community; how to arrange a reflective practice discussion; and an interactive reflective practice discussion learning exercise.  In addition, delegates will gain information about accessing, and making the most of the IFoA event Toolkits which you can make use of to run your own in-house events and events for regional communities. 

  • Spaces available

    16.00-17.00 GMT+8

    Consumer expectations are changing Insurance. The Royal Commission in Australia, Design Obligations in the UK, the insurtech ecosystem, and digital-first consumers demanding personalised solutions will all revolutionise how insurance looks like in the future.

  • Spaces available

    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presenter / panel workshop hybrid will be anchored by two presentations examining the socioeconomic, medical and technological factors that will have a significant impact on mortality and our pricing over the next 20 years and beyond. It will also discuss whether significant mortality improvement will continue in Asia or whether varying experience of low improvements or deterioration. 

  • Spaces available

    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presentation aims to provides an overview of the reformation of current Chinese regulatory solvency regime, how industry coping with the new normal after pandemic time and how the reformation of the regulation could help the insurance industry gets back on its feet as well as coming back to the “protection” core value for the policyholders. The presentation would include:

  • Spaces available

    16.00-17.00 (GMT+8) | 09.00-10.00 (BST)

    The basic data of China’s 2nd Critical Illness Mortality Table covers 2000+ products in Chinese market, including about 340 million insurance policies and 5.1 million claimants. Presenter will give the audience a general understanding including but not limited to the following contents:

  • Autumn Lecture 2020: Professor Elroy Dimson

    Online webinar
    14 October 2020

    Spaces available

    Many individuals and institutions have a long-term focus, and invest funds for the benefit of future generations. Their strategy should reflect their long horizon. University endowments are one of the oldest classes of institutional investor, and I will present the first study of the management of these endowments over the very long term.

  • GIRO Conference 2020 Webinar Series

    Available to watch globally in November.
    02-13 November 2020
    Spaces available

    This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.

  • Spaces available

    Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.

  • Spaces available

    The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report.