CMI Working Paper 119 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2018. An updated version of Working Paper 119 was released in April 2019 to correct text on pages 26 and 37.

More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available on the mortality projections page.

Important note: updated version of CMI_2018 software

Version 4 of the CMI_2018 software was released in February 2022 to address an issue with the interface of the CMI_2018 software. The previous version could lead to misleading results in a specific set of circumstances. 
 
The issue in version 3 of CMI_2018 occurs if a user:

  • opts to use Advanced projection parameters (on the main tab);
  • selects the Advanced option for the initial addition parameters within the advanced projection parameters tab, which allows users to set age-specific initial addition parameters;
  • specifies a non-zero value for one or more initial addition parameters; and
  • reselects the Core option for the initial addition parameters (on the advanced projection parameters tab) while retaining the Advanced option for projection parameters generally (on the main tab).

In that case:

  • the resulting projection uses the values of the age-specific initial addition parameters previously specified as advanced parameters, not the Core value of nil at all ages.

Earlier versions of the CMI_2018 software

There have been a number of versions of the CMI_2018 software:

  • Version 1 was the original version, released alongside Working Paper 119 in March 2019.
  • Version 2 was released in April 2019, to address an issue with the user interface that may have led to incorrect results regarding the constant addition parameter in a specific set of circumstances.
  • Version 3 made a number of enhancements to the software, which did not affect the calculations. These included allowing the initial addition to mortality improvements (“A”) to be used alongside Advanced parameters, rather than only as an Extended parameter, as in versions 1 and 2. Version 3 was issued as a “beta” version in November 2019, and as a non-beta version in March 2020.

A Briefing note on CMI_2018 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides an overview of the latest version of the Model and is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018. The calibration dataset is constructed in a similar way to the CMI_2017 dataset, but estimates of populations at high ages now incorporate the method proposed in Working Paper 106.

Following a proposal published in Working Paper 114 and confirmed, following consultation, in Working Paper 116, the Core value of the period smoothing parameter, Sk, has been reduced from 7.5 in CMI_2016 and CMI_2017 to 7 in CMI_2018. A new Extended parameter, the “initial addition to mortality improvements”, has been added to the Model software. This allows users to adjust the age-period component of initial mortality improvements more easily to reflect their views on appropriate improvements for specific populations. 

Core Projections generated by CMI_2018 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2017 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 119 contains numerical results from CMI_2018 and commentary. It also contains the analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. These are updated versions of the methods paper and user guide published alongside Working Paper 105 for CMI_2017. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2018 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however, you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software then please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Documents

View the previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model

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