CMI Working Paper 119 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2018. An updated version of Working Paper 119 was released in April 2019 to correct text on pages 26 and 37.

Important note: An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to address an issue with the user interface that may lead to incorrect results.

The issue is that if a user:

  • opted to use the Advanced parameters and specified any non-zero value for the constant additions to mortality improvements by age, and
  • reselected the Core parameters,

Then

  • the resulting projection used the values from the Advanced parameters, not the Core value of nil at all ages, and
  • the output from the Model in this scenario would state invalidly that it is from the Core version.

We have also corrected a separate issue that would have prevented the Model from running if the user chose to enable automatic adjustment of smoothing parameters for other populations.

We have released CMI_2018 v3 “beta”, which makes a number of enhancements to the interface to the software since CMI_2018 v2, which do not affect the calculations. The key change, in response to requests from Subscribers, is to allow the initial addition to mortality improvements (“A”) to be used alongside Advanced parameters, rather than only as an Extended parameter, as in CMI_2018 v2.

We are making CMI_2018 v3 available as a “beta” version. Assuming that no issues emerge, we intend to include the new features in CMI_2019. The software, and the updated user guide, which describes the various changes, can be obtained using the links. Please note that beta versions of CMI Model software are provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. Should you encounter any bugs, glitches, lack of functionality or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

A Briefing note on CMI_2018 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides an overview of the latest version of the Model and is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018. The calibration dataset is constructed in a similar way to the CMI_2017 dataset, but estimates of populations at high ages now incorporate the method proposed in Working Paper 106.

Following a proposal published in Working Paper 114 and confirmed, following consultation, in Working Paper 116, the Core value of the period smoothing parameter, Sk, has been reduced from 7.5 in CMI_2016 and CMI_2017 to 7 in CMI_2018. A new Extended parameter, the “initial addition to mortality improvements”, has been added to the Model software. This allows users to adjust the age-period component of initial mortality improvements more easily to reflect their views on appropriate improvements for specific populations. 

Core Projections generated by CMI_2018 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2017 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 119 contains numerical results from CMI_2018 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. These are updated versions of the methods paper and user guide published alongside Working Paper 105 for CMI_2017. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2018 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee will host a meeting at Staple Inn on 2 April 2019, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss mortality improvements.

  • The CMI will briefly summarise CMI_2018, recent mortality, and how the Model can be adapted to reflect different populations using the new Extended parameter A.
  • The main focus of the meeting will be longer-term mortality improvements. Joseph Lu (Legal & General) and Tim Crayford (Just) will present their differing views on how mortality rates may develop in the long term, followed by debate from the floor.

Documents

CMI_2018 v3 “beta” allows for the use of the initial addition to mortality improvements as an Advanced parameter. As noted above, this is provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.:

View the previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model

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Events calendar

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Hong Kong

    Club@28, Crowne Plaza Hong Kong Causeway Bay, Causeway Bay, No.8 Leighton Road (Chinese address :香港铜锣湾皇冠假日酒店28层Club@28, 香港铜锣湾礼顿道8号 )
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Shenzen

    Shenzhen:  GlassHammer Bar, L1-131-133, Futiam Shopping Mall, Shenzhen. (Chinese address: 玻璃锤精酿啤酒屋(原Taps),深圳市福田区购物公园1楼商铺131-133)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Shanghai

    Shanghai: Bluefrog (next to Super Grand Mall), No. 12-14 Fucheng Road, Shanghai. (Chinese address: Bluefrog蓝蛙正大店,富城路12-14号,正大广场对面)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception in Beijing

    Beijing: Jazz.ya APM,L621-623, Sun Dong An Plaza Plaza, No. 138 Wangfujing Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing (Chinese address: 北京市东城区王府井大街138号新东安广场L621-623商铺)
    17 January 2020

    Spaces available

    The IFoA Beijing Office invite all of our members to join the New Year Member Event and Volunteer Reception. We would like to thank all our members and volunteers, to congratulate all the new qualifiers in the September exam session, and to celebrate the New Year 2020 and the Spring Festival together!

    This social event is free and open to all IFoA members.

    Save the date and join us!

  • Sessional Meeting - Operational Risk Dependencies

    Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh 9 Queen St Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    20 January 2020

    Fully booked.

    The Operational Risk Working Party aims to assist actuaries and others in the modelling and management of operational risk. One of the key challenges in modelling operational risk is the modelling of dependencies between operational risks, and between operational and non-operational risks such as market, credit and insurance risk.

  • KSS event in Glasgow: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson, Glasgow 20 Waterloo St, Glasgow
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Stirling: Public Sector Pensions

    M&G Prudential, Stirling Craigforth Campus, Stirling
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • KSS event in Edinburgh: Public Sector Pensions

    Hymans Robertson 1, Exchange Place, Semple St, Edinburgh
    30 January 2020

    Spaces available

    – the unappreciated key assumption, the resulting unsustainable promises, the unmanaged risk and the unrecognised debt? 

    Speaker: Allan Martin will present this talk on 30 January in Glasgow, Stirling and Edinburgh. If you wish to register for another location please return to the Events Calendar.

  • The Great Risk Transfer – Breakfast briefing and launch event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    31 January 2020

    Fully booked.

     

    Launch of the IFoA’s 2020 thought leadership campaign The Great Risk Transfer. The campaign will examine the trend of the transfer of risk from institutions to individuals, and how people can be better equipped to manage the financial risks they now face. At this breakfast event the IFoA will launch a call for evidence on this topic.

  • Joint IFoA and SOAT Professional Skills Training event - Bangkok

    Thai Life Insurance PCL, 13th Floor, Meeting Room 13/2, 123 Ratchadaphisek Road, Din Daeng, Bangkok 10400, Thailand  
    7 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This session is jointly organised by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Society of Actuaries of Thailand (SOAT).

    Video case studies will be selected from the IFoA’s 2019/2020 online content which covers a range of topics under an overarching theme of “A Trusted Profession”. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Life, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.

     

  • Cyber Risk Event

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    10 February 2020

    Spaces available

    What do good cyber practices look like and, to what extent, can we as an industry implement these operationally and recognise these for underwriting?

  • KSS event: Where now for pensions?

    Royal London Group, 1 Thistle Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1DG
    18 February 2020

    Spaces available

    With a single party government at Westminster holding a comfortable majority, and with the first phase of Brexit complete, the potential for radical reforms of the pensions landscape is increased. 

    Former Pensions Minister Steve Webb discusses what changes we can expect to see in pensions including in state pensions, pension tax relief, automatic enrolment and the workplace pension landscape.

  • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    24 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. Note: Registration is from 17.30 in time for the sessional to begin at 18.00.

  • KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?

    New Register House, 3 West Register Street, Edinburgh
    5 March 2020

    Spaces available

    The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:

  • Board agenda: Why Responsible Investing, ESG, and Climate Change matters to Pension Funds, Companies

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London. WC1V 6DR, UK
    19 March 2020

    Spaces available

    Recent years have seen ESG, Climate Change, and Responsible Investing thrust onto the corporate agenda in every boardroom. The same also be said for pension funds. Expectations of how companies should respond are high and NEDs on Boards are expected to adapt and adjust their guidance to companies accordingly. What does this mean for Actuaries serving as NEDs and Trustees?

  • KSS event: A Cashless Society- Benefits, Risks, Issues and Developments

    Deloitte, 4th Floor, Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace
    19 March 2020

    Spaces available

    Speaker: Iain Collier, Chair of the CSWP

    The talk will look to cover the following: Progression towards a Cashless Society • Developments home and overseas • Benefits, Risks and Issues • Crypto Currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies.

    There will be an extended Q&A session at the end of the event.

  • Spring Lecture 2020, Edinburgh - Vicky Pryce

    Assembly Rooms, 54 George St, Edinburgh EH2 2LR
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy? Please join us for our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

  • Spring Lecture 2020: Live Streaming

    Webinar
    25 March 2020

    Spaces available

    What next in Economic Policy? Please join us on 25 March 2020 for the live stream of our annual Spring Lecture presented by Vicky Pryce in Edinburgh. Vicky is Chief Economic Adviser and a board member at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

  • SIAS Event: CMI Update

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    1 April 2020

    Spaces available

    Following the release of the updated CMI Mortality Projection Model, CMI_2019, the CMI Mortality Projections Committee will lead a discussion on future mortality improvements.

  • IFoA Asia Conference 2020, Kuala Lumpur

    CCEC Nexus, 7, Jalan Kerinchi, Bangsar South, 59200 Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    24-25 June 2020
    Spaces available

    Join us at the IFoA Asia Conference 2020 at CCEC Nexus, Kuala Lumpur where intellectual thought leaders, senior industry players, opinion formers, academics, actuaries and non-actuaries from across Asia and beyond are expected to attend. This year's landmark conference promises to an exciting one as our first Asian President-elect, Tan Suee Chieh will, as newly appointed president of the IFoA, use his presidential address to highlight the two key pillars of the IFoA’s emerging strategy:

    • the reinvention of the profession in terms of its skillsets and mind-sets so that we can thrive in an increasing range of domains in a digital age;
    • the widening application of actuarial science in achieving social impact and sustainability goals.

    We are also delighted to announce that the Honourable Mr. Lim Guan Eng, Minister of Finance, Malaysia, will be the guest of honour at this year's conference.

    Should you be interested in presenting and sharing your expertise with international industry players, opinion formers, peers, and academics, please submit your proposal by 20 January.

    Early bird registration is now open until 1 March.  10% group discounts are offered to a minimum of six IFoA members booking in a single transaction.  Limited spaces are available, so please sign-up early to avoid disappointment.