The CMI produces a number of tools for modelling future mortality improvements, together with supporting research papers

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2016, was published alongside CMI Working Papers 97, 98 and 99 in March 2017.

An updated version of the CMI_2016 software, v02, with enhanced functionality was released in November 2017. These changes do not affect the CMI_2016 projections. A new version of the user guide (Working Paper 99) has been published to reflect these changes. Working Paper 103 describes the updates made to the software. An updated version of Working Paper 97 was also released in November 2017 to correct an error in Table A2.1.

CMI_2016 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2016. Its method differs in a number of respects from earlier versions, following the consultation described in Working Papers 90, 91 and 93.

Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:

This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.

To provide increased transparency the data used to calibrate these models has been made available to Subscribers.

Note that the data used to calibrate CMI_2016 is included within the Excel spreadsheet.

CMI Working Paper 80 sets out the Committee's intentions for the release dates of future updates to the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The paper includes responses to the consultation on this subject issued as CMI Working Paper 79.

CMI library of mortality projections

The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014.  Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only. 

The CMI is no longer updating the library.  However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library.  Corresponding life expectancies are here.

Previous versions:

  • Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
  • Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
  • Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
  • Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
  • Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.

Earlier projections

Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.

The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.

ONS weekly death data

The CMI Mortality Projections Committee is considering how weekly death data, provided by the ONS, might help in forming a view on emerging mortality trends. At this stage the CMI is simply making available consolidated data. It later intends to publish an analysis of the data and is currently considering what would be useful to Subscribers and to the CMI itself.

There are two forms of data, both contained in the same weekly death data file:

  • The first contains detailed data split by sex and broad age bands. This is available from the start of 2010 and will be updated by the CMI quarterly. This is essentially the same as that available from the ONS website, but covers a longer historical period and has been consolidated into a single file for ease of use. Please note the comment in the related guidance (contained within the file) about the calculation of totals in the file.
  • The second is weekly death data from 2005, made available by the ONS at the CMI’s request. However this only provides total deaths and is not split by sex or age.

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