The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs
The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2020, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 147 in March 2021. CMI_2020 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2020.
Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:
- CMI_2019 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 129 in March 2020
- CMI_2018 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 119 in March 2019
- CMI_2017 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 105 in March 2018
- CMI_2016 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 97 in March 2017
- CMI_2015 was published alongside CMI Working paper 84 in September 2015
- CMI_2014 was published alongside CMI Working paper 74 in November 2014
- CMI_2013 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 69 in September 2013
- CMI_2012 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 63 in February 2013
- CMI_2011 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 55 in September 2011
- CMI_2010 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 49 in November 2010
- CMI_2009 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 41 in November 2009; This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.
Monitoring England & Wales population mortality
We publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). While mortality is abnormal during the coronavirus pandemic, we have published more frequent pandemic mortality monitors.
CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018.
Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.
CMI library of mortality projections
The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014. Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only.
The CMI is no longer updating the library. However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library. Corresponding life expectancies are here.
Previous versions:
- Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
- Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
- Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
- Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
- Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.
Earlier projections
Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.
The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.
Related documents
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CMI Report 17. Whole volume
30 June 1999
Contact Details
If you have any questions about the CMI please email
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Professional Skills Training Webinar - 21 April 2021
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Available to watch globally in May.10-12 May 2021
This year's Finance and Investment Virtual Conference takes on the timely theme of ‘resilience’, something we have all learnt a lot more about in the last year! Our diverse range of talks will explore the theme of resilience in a variety of ways including in building robust investment portfolios, in the incorporation of ESG factors, in govern -
Central and Eastern Europe Town Hall
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Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list. -
CILA 2021
Available to watch globally in May.19-21 May 2021
We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards.
Wicked Problems, Clumsy Solutions and Leading Change
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called '
Climate-Related Risk - This free to view webinar on Climate-Related Risk is the first in a series focusing on some of the ‘Hotspots’ identified in the 
Join us for this brand new IFoA webinar weries comprising of a fortnight of webinars, panel sessions and a 
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity.
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list.