The CMI produces a number of tools for modelling future mortality improvements, together with supporting research papers

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2018, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 119 in March 2019. CMI_2018 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018.

Important note: An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to correct a potential error that could have affected users in a specific circumstance, described on the Working Paper 119 webpage.

Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:

Monitoring England & Wales population mortality

We publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018. 

Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.

CMI library of mortality projections

The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014.  Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only. 

The CMI is no longer updating the library.  However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library.  Corresponding life expectancies are here.

Previous versions:

  • Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
  • Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
  • Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
  • Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
  • Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.

Earlier projections

Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.

The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • KSS event – The Future of the Actuarial Profession with Alan Watson (Glasgow)

    Mercer, 5 George Square, Glasgow G2 1AR
    17 September 2019

    Fully booked.

    This event is now fully booked 

    This KSS talk will explore how the Actuarial Profession is changing by looking at the past, the current and the future; considering what will be the key issues impacting the Profession over the next 20 years and why this will be different from today. Why will areas like data science be important?  What does the future hold for reserved roles? What impact will the Profession have on other professionals?  And much more!

  • KSS event – The Future of the Actuarial Profession with Alan Watson

    Willis Towers Watson 2 Lochrin Square, 96 Fountainbridge, Edinburgh EH3 9QA
    23 September 2019

    Spaces available

    This KSS talk will explore how the Actuarial Profession is changing by looking at the past, the current and the future; considering what will be the key issues impacting the Profession over the next 20 years and why this will be different from today. Why will areas like data science be important?  What does the future hold for reserved roles? What impact will the Profession have on other professionals?  And much more!

  • GIRO Conference 2019

    EICC, The Exchange, 150 Morrison St, Edinburgh EH3 8EE
    24-26 September 2019
    Spaces available

    GRIO 2019

  • The Future of the Actuarial Profession

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    3 October 2019

    Fully booked.

     

    Three actuaries – and CEOs – discuss their views on how the business world is changing and what that might mean for actuaries in the future.

  • Spaces available

    Have you ever thought about working in wider fields? Would you like to play a role in the fight against climate change to make the planet better? 

    It can be difficult to do this - but seeing an example you can follow can make it more realistic. In this ‘green’ case study a template is outlined to show how actuaries can apply their skills more broadly - and in doing so, to make a difference.

  • RSS/IFoA Data Science Ethics: the role of practitioners

    Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX
    7 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the Royal Statistical Society have worked together to develop joint ethics guidance on data science. This is the culmination of an 18 month programme of practitioner led work. 
     
    Join us for the launch of this new guidance, with a high-level panel discussion which will explore the role of data science practitioners and professional bodies in data ethics. 

  • SIAS Event: AGM and talk on a Monetary Approach to Economics

    Staple Inn Hall. High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    8 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The SIAS Annual General Meeting will commence at 5.45pm and be followed by a talk given by the well known economist and author, Steve Keen, at 6pm. A live webinar will be available. 

  • Career Event - Count Me In

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    10 October 2019

    Spaces available

    This event is aimed at school age young people to encourage then into the profession

    Join us and leading actuarial employers at our free Count Me In STEM careers event in London.  Find out more about a range of rewarding careers in actuarial science and how we are supporting and promoting diversity in the profession.

  • KSS Event – GAD: the 100 year life (Edinburgh)

    KPMG  Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG
    22 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.

  • KSS Event – Equity Release Mortgages: The Irish Experience

    Room CM S.01 (Second floor, Colin Maclaurin Building, building 22 on the campus map.) Campus maps can be found at https://www.hw.ac.uk/uk/edinburgh/map.htm
    23 October 2019

    Spaces available

    This is a co-branded KSS/Heriot-Watt University event.  Equity release mortgages (ERMs), also called lifetime mortgages, have played an increasing role in generating income for retired home-owners.  As new liquidity rules have reduced the supply of bank lending, so insurers have stepped in, encouraged by generous regulatory treatment for annuity writers.

  • KSS event – GAD: the 100 year life (Glasgow)

    Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
    24 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.

  • Sessional Meeting - Autonomous Vehicles and impacts on the wider insurance industry

    Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ         
    28 October 2019

    Spaces available

    The Sessional Meeting is now fully booked.

    Please click here to register on the waiting list.

     

    The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October.  The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters. 

  • ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    30 October 2019

    Spaces available

    ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.

    This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.

  • Hot Topics in Health and Care: Networking and Drinks

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
    4 November 2019

    Spaces available

    This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.

  • SIAS Event: Introduction to the Mortality Research Steering Committee (MRSC)

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    5 November 2019

    Spaces available

    The MRSC is responsible for guiding the profession’s research in the areas of longevity, mortality and morbidity such that it is recognised as a thought leader in this area. It has recently been reviewing what the priorities and have identified 6 areas that we believe are the most important areas of research that should be the current focus and these are:

  • IFoA CPD Co-ordinators' Briefing

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ
    7 November 2019

    Spaces available

    The theme of this year’s annual briefing is: Lifelong Learning – providing continuous development for our members.

    This event is primarily for volunteer CPD Co-ordinators, who attend to represent their organisation. CPD Co-ordinators play a key role in effective engagement between organisations who employ our members and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA).

  • The challenges for AI in Autonomous driving – Professor Andrew Blake

    Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 11 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ
    11 November 2019

    Spaces available

    In conjunction with the Scottish Board and supporting the IFoA’s focus on data science.

    The IFoA’s Scottish Board have arranged for UK pioneer in Computer Vision and Machine Intelligence, Professor Andrew Blake to speak to delegates on the subject of AI in Autonomous driving. This lecture will focus on safety-critical operation and the computation of risk.  

  • Autumn Pension Seminar

    Grand Connaught Rooms, 61-65 Great Queen St, Holborn, London WC2B 5DA
    13 November 2019

    Spaces available

    Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.

  • KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?

    Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ
    14 November 2019

    Spaces available

    The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:

    • population statistics
    • life expectancy
    • changes in age structure
    • birth and death rates, including causes of death statistics.
  • Life Conference 2019

    The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1
    20-22 November 2019
    Spaces available

    The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance.  Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.

  • ARC Workshop: Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in English Mortality

    Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ
    2 December 2019

    Spaces available

    Purpose
    The workshop will give participants detailed insights into how a large and detailed dataset can be used to assess levels of mortality inequality in England, using a number of novel statistical methods. We will also address the question: are regional variations in mortality real or imaginary?

  • Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP

    Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL
    2 December 2019

    Fully booked.

    The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker.  Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.

  • Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming

    Webinar 
    2 December 2019

    Spaces available

    Watch the live stream of this year's Autumn Lecture with guest speaker Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP. 

  • Behavioural Finance Research Launch- 14 January 2020

    Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR
    14 January 2020

    Fully booked.

    We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday 14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.

    This event is now full. Please register for the waiting list.

  • Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party

    Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ
    24 February 2020

    Spaces available

    This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality.