The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs
The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2018, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 119 in March 2019. CMI_2018 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2018.
Important note: An updated version of the CMI_2018 software, v02, was released in April 2019 to correct a potential error that could have affected users in a specific circumstance, described on the Working Paper 119 webpage.
Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:
- CMI_2017 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 105 in March 2018
- CMI_2016 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 97 in March 2017
- CMI_2015 was published alongside CMI Working paper 84 in September 2015
- CMI_2014 was published alongside CMI Working paper 74 in November 2014
- CMI_2013 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 69 in September 2013
- CMI_2012 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 63 in February 2013
- CMI_2011 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 55 in September 2011
- CMI_2010 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 49 in November 2010
- CMI_2009 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 41 in November 2009; This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.
Monitoring England & Wales population mortality
We publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018.
Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.
CMI library of mortality projections
The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014. Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only.
The CMI is no longer updating the library. However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library. Corresponding life expectancies are here.
- Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
- Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
- Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
- Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
- Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.
Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.
The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.
- 30 June 1999
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The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) recently published an Exposure Draft (ED) of limited changes to its insurance contracts standard IFRS 17, effective date 2022.
The IFoA hosts regular roundtable meetings with the PRA on best practice in insurance investment and the application of the Prudent Person Principle, which governs insurance investment under Solvency II.
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The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October. The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters.
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.
The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker. Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.
Watch the live stream of this year's Autumn Lecture with guest speaker Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP.