Mortality projections

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2017, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 105 in March 2018.

An updated version of the CMI_2017 software, v02, was released in August 2018 to allow the "live link" to continue to work following changes to the Human Mortality Database website.  A further version, v03, was released in December 2018 to allow the smoothing parameters to be adjusted for populations of different sizes, as described in Working Paper 115. Neither change affects the CMI_2017 projections.

CMI_2017 is calibrated to England and Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2017.

Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:

• CMI_2016 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 97 in March 2017
   
• CMI_2015 was published alongside CMI Working paper 84 in September 2015
   
• CMI_2014 was published alongside CMI Working paper 74 in November 2014
   
• CMI_2013 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 69 in September 2013
   
• CMI_2012 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 63 in February 2013
   
• CMI_2011 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 55 in September 2011
   
• CMI_2010 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 49 in November 2010
   
• CMI_2009 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 41 in November 2009; This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.

Monitoring England & Wales population mortality

We intend to publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our proposed method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018. The next release is due in late January 2019.

Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.

CMI library of mortality projections

The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014.  Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only. 

The CMI is no longer updating the library.  However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library.  Corresponding life expectancies are here.

Previous versions:

• Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
• Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
• Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
• Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
• Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.

Earlier projections

Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.

The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.