The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs
The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2019, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 129 in March 2020. CMI_2019 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.
Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:
- CMI_2018 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 119 in March 2019
- CMI_2017 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 105 in March 2018
- CMI_2016 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 97 in March 2017
- CMI_2015 was published alongside CMI Working paper 84 in September 2015
- CMI_2014 was published alongside CMI Working paper 74 in November 2014
- CMI_2013 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 69 in September 2013
- CMI_2012 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 63 in February 2013
- CMI_2011 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 55 in September 2011
- CMI_2010 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 49 in November 2010
- CMI_2009 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 41 in November 2009; This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.
Monitoring England & Wales population mortality
We publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018.
Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.
CMI library of mortality projections
The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014. Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only.
The CMI is no longer updating the library. However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library. Corresponding life expectancies are here.
Previous versions:
- Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
- Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
- Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
- Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
- Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.
Earlier projections
Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.
The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.
Related documents
-
CMI Report 17. Whole volume
30 June 1999
Contact Details
If you have any questions about the CMI please email
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
Pensions: Actuarial Factors used to Calculate Benefits in UK Pension Schemes
Webinar28 January 2021The IFoA’s Actuarial Review Team has published its first thematic review, which looked at the actuarial advice given by scheme actuaries to UK pension scheme trustees on setting transfer values and commutation rates.
-
India Town Hall
Webinar28 January 2021IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual India Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Member Mahidhara Davangere and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.
-
Winter Thought Leadership Lecture with Vicky Pryce
Webinar3 February 2021What are the options for the world economy looking ahead?
In this Thought Leadership Lecture, Economist, Vicky Pryce, will be discussing world economic trends, including the differences in geographical performance and how output is recovering and where.
-
Professional Skills Training Webinar - 9 February 2021
Webinar9 February 2021Trust and Leadership for Actuaries
Led by Dr. Jim Baxter, University of Leeds, this webinar introduces some key ideas in the ethics of trust, with a particular focus on those in, or on the path to, leadership roles. Dr Baxter is joined by a panel of experienced leaders who will give their personal perspectives on how they understand the value of trust and how they seek to promote and inspire trust, drawing on their experiences of leadership. The panel includes:
-
Health and Care Hot Topics webinar
Online webinar10 February 2021In this webinar, we have two presentations showing the latest research on the implications for life and health insurers of two key issues: genomics and pandemic risk.
Dr Peter Joshi and Paul Timmers will share their research on how well-established underwriting processes can allow for genomics in predicting expected mortality and morbidity. They will then discuss the potential for stratified screening and personalised medicine to improve health and reduce claim costs.
-
As the world’s attention begins to turn to COP26 later this year in Glasgow, Sarah Gordon (Chief Executive, Impact Investing Institute) will share her vision for how the financial services industry can deliver for people and the planet, as well as how to encourage more investment with the intention to generate positive, measurable social and environmental impact alongside a financial return.
-
Sub-Saharan Africa Town Hall
26 February 2021IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual SSA Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Mukami Njeru, Prosper Matiashe and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.
-
MENAP Town Hall
2 March 2021IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual MENAP Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.