The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs
The CMI Mortality Projections Model is a deterministic model driven by user inputs. The model is based on the assumption that current rates of mortality improvement converge to a single long-term rate. The latest version of the Model, CMI_2020, was published alongside CMI Working Paper 147 in March 2021. CMI_2020 is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2020.
Previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model:
- CMI_2019 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 129 in March 2020
- CMI_2018 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 119 in March 2019
- CMI_2017 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 105 in March 2018
- CMI_2016 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 97 in March 2017
- CMI_2015 was published alongside CMI Working paper 84 in September 2015
- CMI_2014 was published alongside CMI Working paper 74 in November 2014
- CMI_2013 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 69 in September 2013
- CMI_2012 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 63 in February 2013
- CMI_2011 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 55 in September 2011
- CMI_2010 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 49 in November 2010
- CMI_2009 was published alongside CMI Working Paper 41 in November 2009; This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the prototype model, CPMv0.0, which was published alongside CMI Working Papers 38 and 39 in June 2009.
Monitoring England & Wales population mortality
We publish an “England & Wales population mortality update” every quarter, analysing recent mortality using provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). While mortality is abnormal during the coronavirus pandemic, we have published more frequent pandemic mortality monitors.
CMI Working Paper 111 describes the data and our method and includes the provisional first analysis, dated October 2018.
Future updates will be available from the mortality monitor page.
CMI library of mortality projections
The CMI publishes a library of mortality projections contained in a series of spreadsheets, including sample projections from the ‘92’ series, interim cohort projections, P-Spline and Lee Carter models, the National Population Projections, and the CMI Mortality Projections Model. The latest version of the library, version 1.5, was released in August 2014. Note: this version (and version 1.4) of the Library are available to Authorised Users only.
The CMI is no longer updating the library. However, given interest in the National Population Projections, we have requested details of the 2014-based projections from the ONS in the form contained in the library. Corresponding life expectancies are here.
- Version 1.4 was released in April 2013
- Version 1.3 was released in November 2011
- Version 1.2 was released in June 2011
- Version 1.1 was released in March 2009 alongside CMI Working paper 37
- Version 1.0 was released in November 2007 alongside CMI Working paper 30. This paper also summarises the feedback on the consultation on the draft library, which was published alongside CMI Working paper 27 in July 2007.
Earlier mortality projections were integrated into many CMI published mortality tables. For example the ‘92’ Series mortality projections are specified in CMI Report 17. An interim basis for adjusting these projections for cohort effects (the ‘cohort projections’) was later published in CMI Working Paper 1 in December 2002.
The CMI has researched a number of stochastic projection methodologies, culminating in CMI Working Paper 20 (focusing on P-Splines) and CMI Working Paper 25 (focusing on Lee Carter). The illustrative software used for the research is available on request.
- 30 June 1999
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We have made it through 2020 but the COVID-19 crisis continues to have a significant impact on individuals, societies, businesses and the wider economy across the globe. Navigating the world post COVID-19 in an uncertain and highly unstable time brings along many uncertainties, challenges and exciting opportunities. Hence the theme of this year’s IFoA Asia Conference Webinar Series is “Risk. Adapt. Thrive.”
In April 2021, the CMI Income Protection Committee published Working Paper 149, which detailed the changes to analysis methodology for the Income Protection Investigation and the impact of past data issues. This webinar will provide an overview of the changes in the analysis approach and discuss the adjustments to the IP11 claim inceptions graduations.
Louise Pryor, IFoA President, will chair this free-to-view session, in which Alex Darsley, TPR, Actuarial Regulatory Policy, will be discussing the regulator’s Climate Change Guidance Consultation, which is seeking views on new guidance designed to help trustees meet tougher standards of governance in relation to climate change ri
Internal audit is often the Cinderella of the audit world. It’s a regulatory requirement for insurance companies to have an internal audit function, so why not make it as useful as possible? This session will look at how to link an internal audit plan to the risk register, and how that helps audit committees and boards to spot problems and fix them.
Climate change is one of the greatest risks facing our world today. Addressing it will require multi-faceted solutions. Through this panel session, we will explore the different levers that can be used to meet net-zero targets including climate science and data, government engagement, and mobilising green finance.