CMI Working Paper 189 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2023.
A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2023 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2023. The exceptional nature of mortality during the pandemic means that “business as usual” updates to the Model would have shown larger falls in projected mortality improvements and cohort life expectancy than most users of the Model would have considered reasonable. Because of this, we modified the calibration process for CMI_2020 so that users could choose to place more or less weight on data for individual years. We have retained this feature for later versions, including CMI_2023. For the Core version of CMI_2023, we use a weight of 0% for 2020 and 2021 data, a weight of 15% for 2022 and 2023 data, and weights of 100% for other years.
Core projections generated by CMI_2023 produce lower cohort life expectancies than those produced by CMI_2022 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages.
Working Paper 189 contains numerical results from CMI_2023 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:
- Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2023 dataset for males and females.
- A spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the results working paper.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk
We have also released Working Paper 188 which summarises responses to the consultation on CMI_2023 issued in February 2024.
The Committee will host a meeting on 15 May 2024, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss the outlook for future mortality improvements. Further details are available from the SIAS website.
Documents:
- CMI Working Paper 189
- Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- CMI_2023 methods
- CMI_2023 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2023
- Derivation of the CMI_2023 male dataset
- Derivation of the CMI_2023 female dataset
- Spreadsheet of values used in charts in Working Paper 189
These outputs are available to Authorised Users only.
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed here.
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