We released the latest version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2023, on 18 April 2024, accompanied by Working Paper 189.
We issued Working Paper 183 in February 2024 which consulted on our proposed method for CMI_2023:
- updating the period of calibration data by one year as usual, to 1983-2023 for CMI_2023; and
- setting a weight of 10% for data in 2022 and 2023.
Working Paper 188 summarises the responses to the consultation, our decisions for CMI_2023, and our initial thoughts on later versions of the Model.
While respondents to the consultation have a range of views, the responses as a whole are broadly supportive of using weight parameters in CMI_2023, and in particular the use of a single weight for data for 2022 and 2023.
The range of respondent views on the value for the weight for 2022 and 2023 was broadly evenly split between those agreeing with 10% for 2022 and 2023 data and those preferring a higher weight, similar to the views of the members of the Mortality Projections Committee. We have used weights of 15% for 2022 and 2023 data in CMI_2023, rather than 10% as proposed in Working Paper 183. The choice of 15% reflects a small change in the balance of views within the Mortality Projections Committee in light of the consultation responses.
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