CMI_2023 consultation

The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2023, in April 2024 subject to responses to the consultation.

For CMI_2023 we propose the following:

  • updating the period of calibration data by one year as usual, to 1983-2023 for CMI_2023;
  • setting a weight of 10% for data in 2022 and in 2023;
  • adopt a unified weight that applies to data for both 2022 and 2023 within the Extended parameters of the model, with other weights for individual calendar years able to be set in the Advanced parameters.

This paper seeks views of users of the Model on our proposal for CMI_2023. We would like to receive comments by 11 March 2024, and we aim to provide an update on our plans for CMI_2023 by the end of March 2024 ahead of an April release.

We intend to hold a webinar on 26 February 2024 which will cover this consultation and other aspects of our recent work. Details of how to register are available in the webinar registration document below.

We have issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation. This incorporates our proposed Core parameterisation, and an illustrative dataset for CMI_2023, consistent with Working Paper 183. The software is intended to allow users to better understand the implications of our proposals and assist them in responding to the consultation

Please note that:

  • The illustrative software is provided as a “beta” version on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.
  • Results from CMI_2023 may differ from those of the illustrative software.

While this paper focusses on the impact of the pandemic and its aftermath on the Model’s parameters, Working Paper 184 released alongside this paper, considers the Model’s parameters more broadly.

Documents:

The paper, its accompanying spreadsheets and webinar registration are available to Authorised Users only.

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