CMI Working Paper 41

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions

CMI Working Paper 41 accompanied the launch of the first live version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model and was issued alongside the model, a user guide and a set of parameter sensitivity test results

This followed the CMI’s publication in June 2009 of a prototype mortality projections model (CPMv0.0). The prototype model was issued for consultation and was accompanied by its user guide and two CMI working papers. CMI Working Paper 38 provided an overview of the model and set out specific questions for the consultation. CMI Working Paper 39 detailed further analysis to help inform the setting of parameter values for the model. 

Consultation meetings were held in Edinburgh and London in July 2009 and over 30 written responses to the consultation were received. The CMI is grateful to all those who contributed.

CMI Working Paper 41 summarises the responses to each of the consultation questions posed in CMI Working Paper 38, together with the Working Party’s comments and details of the actions taken to develop the first live version of the model

The structure of the model has been left broadly unchanged from the prototype version. However, the default parameters contained in the model have been updated to reflect the publication of England and Wales population data for calendar year 2008.

As a result, default initial rates of mortality improvement have slightly reduced in general from those published in the prototype version and accordingly core projections generated by the new version of the model produce life expectancies and annuity values which are marginally lower than those produced by the prototype model (with other parameters held constant).

In addition, the naming convention has been revised: this first live version of the model will be referred to as CMI_2009 rather than ‘CPMv1.0’.