You are here

CMI Working Papers 38 and 39

CMI Working Paper 38 (June 2009) introduced the prototype mortality projections model, gave an overview of the Working Party’s research into the latest mortality experience trends, and illustrated some sample projections produced by the prototype model

CMI Working Paper 39 (July 2009) provided further detail on the Working Party’s research and analysis.

The CMI had become concerned about the continuing widespread use of the ‘interim cohort’ mortality projections. These projections do not take account of experience data published for years after 1999 and - as a result - have become increasingly out-of-date.

The Working Party was established to develop a projection model which:

  • reflects the latest experience on trends in mortality;
  • is relatively straightforward to understand and describe;
  • allows users the flexibility to modify projections to suit their own views and purpose;
  • can be regularly updated over time to reflect emerging experience.

The structure of the prototype mortality projection model is based on the projection of annual rates of mortality improvement, and assumes that ‘current’ rates of change will blend over time into a ‘long-term’ rate of improvement specified by the user

The model produces a single, deterministic, mortality projection for each set of user inputs and may be operated at different levels of complexity, reflecting the needs and resources of different users and uses.

The prototype model was published for consultation, along with a number of specific questions included in CMI Working Paper 38. The consultation period closed on 31 August 2009 and the Working Party produced CMI Working Paper 41 setting out a summary of the responses to the consultation, together with the Working Party’s comments and details of the actions taken. This was published on 23 November 2009 alongside the first live version of the model, CMI_2009.

Please email info@cmilimited.co.uk if you want a copy of the prototype model, CPMv0.0, its user guide or set of parameter sensitivity test results which were published alongside Working Papers 38 and 39.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

Filter or search events

Start date
E.g., 26/01/2021
End date
E.g., 26/01/2021

Events calendar

  • Spaces available

    Drawing from his most recent book “The New Long Life” and his longevity research Andrew J Scott will outline how longer lives and new technologies will fundamentally reshape how we structure our lives and transform the economy. As well as looking at the agenda this will set governments and corporates he will focus on the implications for you and how you prepare your future career.

  • India Town Hall

    Webinar
    28 January 2021

    Spaces available

    IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual India Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Member Mahidhara Davangere and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. 

  • Spaces available

    What are the options for the world economy looking ahead?

    In this Thought Leadership Lecture, Economist, Vicky Pryce, will be discussing world economic trends, including the differences in geographical performance and how output is recovering and where.

  • Spaces available

    Trust and Leadership for Actuaries

    Led by Dr. Jim Baxter, University of Leeds, this webinar introduces some key ideas in the ethics of trust, with a particular focus on those in, or on the path to, leadership roles. Dr Baxter is joined by a panel of experienced leaders who will give their personal perspectives on how they understand the value of trust and how they seek to promote and inspire trust, drawing on their experiences of leadership. The panel includes:

  • Health and Care Hot Topics webinar

    Online webinar
    10 February 2021

    Spaces available

    In this webinar, we have two presentations showing the latest research on the implications for life and health insurers of two key issues: genomics and pandemic risk.

    Dr Peter Joshi and Paul Timmers will share their research on how well-established underwriting processes can allow for genomics in predicting expected mortality and morbidity. They will then discuss the potential for stratified screening and personalised medicine to improve health and reduce claim costs.

  • Spaces available

    As the world’s attention begins to turn to COP26 later this year in Glasgow, Sarah Gordon (Chief Executive, Impact Investing Institute) will share her vision for how the financial services industry can deliver for people and the planet, as well as how to encourage more investment with the intention to generate positive, measurable social and environmental impact alongside a financial return.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa Town Hall

    26 February 2021

    Spaces available

    IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual SSA Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Mukami Njeru, Prosper Matiashe and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.

  • MENAP Town Hall

    2 March 2021

    Spaces available

    IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual MENAP Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.