The structure of the CMI_2013 Model is identical to that of the previous versions and is accompanied by an updated User Guide. However, the default parameters contained in the model have been updated to reflect the publication of England and Wales population mortality data for calendar year 2012. This Working paper illustrates the impact of incorporating data for 2012.
CMI Working Paper 69 also summarises the responses to the recent consultation on the future of the Model and the CMI Library of Mortality Projections and outlines the Committee’s reaction and planned next steps
The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement are higher than those published in CMI_2012 at the youngest ages, for both males and females, however they are lower at older ages, again for both males and female. These reductions at older ages mean that Core Projections generated by CMI_2013 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2012 (with other parameters held constant) for both males and females.
Age-period-cohort spreadsheets have been issued in response to the consultation because there were requests for increased transparency of the derivation of the Age/Period and Cohort Components of the initial rates of improvement.
Download the latest version of the Model, CMI_2016.
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can be accessed as follows:
- CMI_2012 and its User Guide can be accessed via CMI Working Paper 63
- CMI_2011 and its User Guide can be accessed via CMI Working Paper 55
- CMI_2010 and its User Guide can be accessed alongside via CMI Working Paper 49
- CMI_2009, its User Guide and an Excel spreadsheet containing additional results for the parameter sensitivity tests, as described in the User Guide, can be accessed via CMI Working Paper 41
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