CMI Working Paper 63 accompanies the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2012, and is issued alongside the model and an updated user guide

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions

The structure of the CMI_2012 model is identical to that of the previous versions. However, the default parameters contained in the model have been updated to reflect the latest England and Wales population mortality dataset. On this occasion there are two elements to updating the dataset:

  • The first element is to incorporate a set of revised population estimates for England and Wales for mid-2002 to mid-2010. The revised estimates were released by the ONS following the 2011 Census and provide a consistent time-series of population estimates to mid-2011.
  • The second element is to extend the dataset to include population mortality rates for 2011.

CMI Working Paper 63 illustrates the impact of both these elements.

The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement are significantly lower than those published in CMI_2011 at the oldest ages, particularly for males. In contrast, at the youngest ages the default rates are higher than those published in CMI_2011, for both males and females.

The comparison is more complex between ages 40 and 85 with estimates higher at some ages and lower at others. The revised population estimates have led to some quite significant shape changes by age, particularly for males where we have seen the near-removal of the peak and trough previously apparent in the dataset around ages 85 to 90.

Heading: Core projections generated by the CMI_2012 model produce expectations of life which are generally lower than those produced by CMI_2011 (with other parameters held constant)

At most ages the reductions are small (less than 1%). However, there are more significant reductions for males at ages 80+, driven by the revisions to population estimates.

A modified version of CMI_2011 (incorporating the revised population estimates referred to above) was produced to help the CMI Mortality Projections Committee understand the progression of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, from CMI_2011 to CMI_2012.

If you would like to see the modified version of CMI_2011 please email projections@cmilimited.co.uk. The CMI does not endorse its use for any particular purpose nor does it accept any liability for its use.

Related documents

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

Filter or search events

Start date
E.g., 23/09/2020
End date
E.g., 23/09/2020

Events calendar

  • Asia Conference Webinar Series

    Webinars
    7 September 2020 - 25 September 2020

    Spaces available

    There will be a prestigious line-up of international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia.  The conference will take place throughout September via an online platform. The webinars consist of plenary speaking sessions and a series of workshop sessions including Life, GI, Data Science, Sustainability, Risk Management and Investment.

    This will be the perfect opportunity for you to discover,ask questions and be at the forefront of current and developing actuarial/financial topics and trends in Asia.

     

  • Spaces available

    This free 90 minute webinar is designed to support the IFoA CPD Co-ordinators, and others, involved in supporting our members to achieve their CPD requirements. 

    The programme will include an overview of the new CPD Scheme; specifically sharing with you key messages to support you implement and embrace the new CPD Scheme for our members within your organisation and regional community; how to arrange a reflective practice discussion; and an interactive reflective practice discussion learning exercise.  In addition, delegates will gain information about accessing, and making the most of the IFoA event Toolkits which you can make use of to run your own in-house events and events for regional communities. 

  • Spaces available

    16.00-17.00 GMT+8

    Consumer expectations are changing Insurance. The Royal Commission in Australia, Design Obligations in the UK, the insurtech ecosystem, and digital-first consumers demanding personalised solutions will all revolutionise how insurance looks like in the future.

  • Spaces available

    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presenter / panel workshop hybrid will be anchored by two presentations examining the socioeconomic, medical and technological factors that will have a significant impact on mortality and our pricing over the next 20 years and beyond. It will also discuss whether significant mortality improvement will continue in Asia or whether varying experience of low improvements or deterioration. 

  • Spaces available

    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presentation aims to provides an overview of the reformation of current Chinese regulatory solvency regime, how industry coping with the new normal after pandemic time and how the reformation of the regulation could help the insurance industry gets back on its feet as well as coming back to the “protection” core value for the policyholders. The presentation would include:

  • Spaces available

    16.00-17.00 (GMT+8) | 09.00-10.00 (BST)

    The basic data of China’s 2nd Critical Illness Mortality Table covers 2000+ products in Chinese market, including about 340 million insurance policies and 5.1 million claimants. Presenter will give the audience a general understanding including but not limited to the following contents:

  • Autumn Lecture 2020: Professor Elroy Dimson

    Online webinar
    14 October 2020

    Spaces available

    Many individuals and institutions have a long-term focus, and invest funds for the benefit of future generations. Their strategy should reflect their long horizon. University endowments are one of the oldest classes of institutional investor, and I will present the first study of the management of these endowments over the very long term.

  • GIRO Conference 2020 Webinar Series

    Available to watch globally in November.
    02-13 November 2020
    Spaces available

    This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.

  • Spaces available

    Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.

  • Spaces available

    The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report.