Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions
The version of CMI_2015 Model published on 28 September 2015 contained an invalid default value for the user input in cell G21 on the ‘Inputs’ tab. This has no effect if the ‘Core’ parameter level is selected for the ‘Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement’ and will cause error messages to be generated if the ‘Advanced’ parameter level is selected.
The version of the model released on 7 October 2015 contains the appropriate default value. Alternatively, the original version of the model can be used provided cell G21 on the Inputs tab is amended to 01/01/2012 (not 01/01/2011).
CMI Working paper 84 accompanies the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2015, and is issued alongside the Model and an updated User Guide.
The structure of CMI_2015 is identical to that of the previous versions; however the default parameters contained in the Model have been updated to reflect England & Wales population mortality data for calendar year 2014, and for the first seven months of 2015.
The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement in CMI_2015 are lower than those published in CMI_2014 for almost all ages for both males and females. This means that Core Projections generated by CMI_2015 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2014 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.
CMI Working Paper 83 analyses recent mortality in England & Wales and provides background for the calibration of CMI_2015.
Documents
- CMI Working Paper 84
- User guide accompanying CMI_2015
- The updated Model, CMI_2015 (Reissued on 07/10/2015 with cell G21 on the Inputs tab amended to an appropriate default value – affects the Advanced Parameters version only)
- Age-period-cohort model - males
- Age-period-cohort model - females
- Exposure and deaths dataset used in the preparation of CMI_2015 (Reissued on 06/10/2015 to incorporate additional data and minor formatting updates)
- Estimates of exposure at age 90+
Contact Details
If you have any questions about the CMI please email
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The Gender Pension Gap
16 May 2022We’ve all heard about the gender pay gap. Sadly, the gap doesn’t just exist with base pay.
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Sessional Meeting: Pension Decumulation Pathways
17 May 2022At retirement, it has become very popular for those with Defined Contribution (DC) pensions to choose drawdown rather than an annuity, but drawing a sustainable lifetime income in this way is an impossible challenge for most people. We consider a Decumulation Pathway for the typical consumer, where a small part of the DC fund is set aside for any flexible access and legacy requirements. The bulk is then used to provide a lifetime income, utilising the pooling or insuring of longevity risk.
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CILA 2022
23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.
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Annual General Meeting 2022
15 June 2022In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.
The Business of the AGM
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IFoA Presidential Address 2022
16 June 2022Join newly inaugurated IFoA President, Matt Saker, for his Presidential Address.
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The IFoA Conference 2022
133 Liverpool St, London EC3A 7BX and Online22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.
