CMI Working Paper 84

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions

The version of CMI_2015 Model published on 28 September 2015 contained an invalid default value for the user input in cell G21 on the ‘Inputs’ tab. This has no effect if the ‘Core’ parameter level is selected for the ‘Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement’ and will cause error messages to be generated if the ‘Advanced’ parameter level is selected.

The version of the model released on 7 October 2015 contains the appropriate default value. Alternatively, the original version of the model can be used provided cell G21 on the Inputs tab is amended to 01/01/2012 (not 01/01/2011).

CMI Working paper 84 accompanies the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2015, and is issued alongside the Model and an updated User Guide.

The structure of CMI_2015 is identical to that of the previous versions; however the default parameters contained in the Model have been updated to reflect England & Wales population mortality data for calendar year 2014, and for the first seven months of 2015.

The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement in CMI_2015 are lower than those published in CMI_2014 for almost all ages for both males and females. This means that Core Projections generated by CMI_2015 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2014 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.

CMI Working Paper 83 analyses recent mortality in England & Wales and provides background for the calibration of CMI_2015.

Documents

• CMI Working Paper 84
• User guide accompanying CMI_2015
• The updated Model, CMI_2015 (Reissued on 07/10/2015 with cell G21 on the Inputs tab amended to an appropriate default value – affects the Advanced Parameters version only)
• Age-period-cohort model - males
• Age-period-cohort model - females
• Exposure and deaths dataset used in the preparation of CMI_2015 (Reissued on 06/10/2015 to incorporate additional data and minor formatting updates)
• Estimates of exposure at age 90+