Important note: We have issued CMI_2017 v4 in order to correct an issue with CMI_2017 v3.
The issue in CMI_2017 v3 is that if a user:
- selects the “Extended” option for initial improvements; and
- selects a value for the period smoothing parameter, Sk, which is not one of the pre-calculated values (6.5, 6.75, 7, 7.25, 7.5, 7.75, 8, 8.25 and 8.5) then the software will not apply the correct smoothing to the initial mortality improvements.
The issue only affects CMI_2017 v3. It does not affect CMI_2017 v1, CMI_2017 v2, or versions of the software for other years.
Please note that we became aware in 2020 that the calculation of deviance and deviance residuals in CMI_2017 is incorrect when age/year cells in the calibration datasets have no deaths. This does not affect the Core dataset, and only has a marginal impact on the fitted model for other datasets that we have tested. Because of the limited impact, and the time since the release of CMI_2017, we have not issued a corrected version of the Model.
An updated version of the CMI_2017 software, v02, was released in August 2018 to allow the "live link" to continue to work following changes to the Human Mortality Database website. A further version, v03, was released in December 2018 to allow the smoothing parameters to be adjusted for populations of different sizes, as described in Working Paper 115. Neither change affects the CMI_2017 projections.
A Briefing note on CMI_2017 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides an overview of the latest version of the Model and is aimed at those receiving advice based on the Model, such as pension scheme trustees and Non-Executive Directors of insurance companies.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2017. Its method is the same as CMI_2016 apart from using an updated dataset, and a minor change to the method used to construct the dataset.
Core Projections generated by CMI_2017 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2016 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 105 contains numerical results from CMI_2017, and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. These are updated versions of Working Papers 98 and 99. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2017 dataset.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
The Committee hosted a meeting at Staple Inn on 3 April 2018, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. The presentation is available from the SIAS website.
- CMI Working Paper 105
- Briefing note for Working Paper 105
- CMI_2017 methods
- CMI_2017 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2017
- Derivation of the male dataset used in CMI_2017
- Derivation of the female dataset used in CMI_2017
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Delivered by the IFRS 17 Contractual Service Margin working party.
The Certified Actuarial Analyst (CAA) qualification has rapidly established itself as adding real value, to insurers and consultancies, and to the clients of consultancies, around the World. CAAs work alongside actuaries and actuarial students, as well as other financial services professionals, in an increasingly broad range of roles and fields.
This session is a repeat of the one earlier today at 09:30
Many individuals and institutions have a long-term focus, and invest funds for the benefit of future generations. Their strategy should reflect their long horizon. University endowments are one of the oldest classes of institutional investor, and I will present the first study of the management of these endowments over the very long term.
This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.
This year's Life Conference has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the life insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's website.
This webinar will provide an update on the emerging thinking around future regulation of DB schemes:
The webinar will discuss the challenges and opportunities schemes face in evaluating end game options, choosing a target state and understanding the impact this strategic decision could have on member outcomes long after the “end state” is reached. Adolfo, Kevin and Rhian bring over 60 years of experience in the industry and a variety of perspectives as scheme actuary, covenant adviser, trustee, de-risking adviser and insurer.
Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.
Patrick Kennedy, Partner at Gateley Legal and Founding Director of Entrust (a leading professional pensions trustee company), will be delivering an update on the latest legal developments during the course of 2020. With both a pensions legal perspective and over 25 years of trustee service, Patrick will seek to highlight how the letter of the law has continued to evolve against the backdrop of a difficult and challenging year
The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report.