The library is intended to bring together previously-published tables of projections, and adjustments to these in common use, together with sample projections from the methodologies that the CMI has recently been researching, namely P-splines and Lee-Carter.
CMI Working Paper 27 was a consultation document, including an extensive list of specific questions. Consultation meetings were held in London and Edinburgh in July 2007 to discuss the library. Access the slides from these meetings.
The responses received to CMI Working Paper 27 and the draft library of mortality projections have been summarised in CMI Working Paper 30, as well as the CMI's reaction to these points, and the resultant changes incorporated in version 1.0 of the library.
Subsequent to the publication of CMI Working Paper 27 the CMI became aware that the dataset for permanent assurances for male lives used in recent research into mortality projections included initial exposures but was used as if these were central exposures. As a result, the results published in Working Papers 20, 25 and 27 and the projections in the draft library that used this dataset were inaccurate. The following errata and revisions are available:
CMI Working Paper 27 was not re-issued, as it was felt preferable to retain the version on which consultation took place. In addition it has effectively been superseded by CMI Working Paper 30, and the user guide.
The draft library has now effectively been replaced by version 1.0 of the library. Please contact the CMI should you require a copy of the draft library.
CMI Working paper 27. The library of mortality projections and the draft "library" of mortality projections10 July 2007
- 30 June 2007
- 23 November 2007
- 23 November 2007
- 1 November 2007
CMI Working paper 20 (revised). Stochastic projection methodologies - Further progress and P-Spline model features, example results and implications.1 November 2007
CMI Working paper 25 (revised). Stochastic projection methodologies: Lee-Carter model features, example results and implications23 November 2007
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