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England & Wales population mortality updates

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales: 

  • We have published quarterly updates since Q4 of 2018.
  • We currently publish summary versions each week, with more detailed versions every quarter.
  • We have released “beta” software that allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates.
  • Working Paper 111 describes the methods used and contains the first update. 

The mortality monitors report on all-cause and COVID-19 mortality. They do not offer any view on other causes of death or reasons for changes in mortality rates.

Latest updates:

  • Weekly summary – Week 47 of 2024 (published 4 December 2024)
  • Quarterly – Q3 2024 (published 9 October 2024)           

Next planned updates:

  • Weekly summary – Week 48 of 2024, on 11 December 2024
  • Quarterly monitor – Q4 2024, in January 2025                  

International excess mortality

Working Paper 180 was published in October 2023. The paper contains analysis of excess mortality for 24 international territories using data from the Human Mortality Database’s short-term mortality fluctuations dataset. This paper is publicly available. 

Notes:

Results of the mortality monitor are based on the date of registration of deaths rather than date of occurrence. We discuss the impact of this, and changes in the timing of registrations in the “Registration delays” section below

We have updated population estimates from time to time, details are in the “Population estimates updates” section below.

All weekly updates:

Quarterly updates:

Population estimates updates:

  • On 31 July 2024, we updated our population estimates to reflect the census rollforward population estimates for mid-2023 published by the ONS. This led to slightly higher estimates of mortality for 2016 to 2024 and slightly lower mortality for 2014 and 2015 than the previous data. There is further information in this note.
  • On 10 July 2024, we updated our population estimates to reflect the population estimates used for CMI_2023. This led to slightly higher estimates of mortality for 2023 and 2024 than the previous data. There is further information in the mortality monitor for Q2 of 2024.
  • On 17 January 2024, we updated our population estimates to take account of more detailed results of the 2021 census published in November 2023. This led to lower estimates of mortality in 2021, 2022 and 2023 than the previous dataset. There is further information in the mortality monitors for week 1 of 2024 and Q4 of 2023.
  • On 11 July 2023, we updated our population estimates to take account of results of the 2021 census. This led to higher estimates for mortality since 2011 than the previous dataset. There is further information in the mortality monitors for week 26 of 2023 and Q2 of 2023.
  • On 12 October 2021, we updated our population estimate for the second half of 2021. This resulted in a slight decrease in expected deaths for weeks 27 to 38 of 2021 and a corresponding increase in excess deaths for those weeks.

Analysis of registration delays

The CMI mortality monitor uses provisional weekly deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS publishes data on both an “occurrences basis”, which assigns deaths to weeks based on when deaths occurred, and a “registrations basis”, which assigns deaths to weeks based on when deaths were registered.

The CMI mortality monitor uses weekly deaths data on a registrations basis, in order to provide timely analysis of emerging mortality data.

  • The appendix to the monitor for week 33 of 2023 considers how the results of the monitor for England & Wales would have differed if they were based on death occurrences rather than death registrations.
  • This note considers the extent to which death certification reforms, implemented with effect from 9 September 2024, may have affected delays between deaths occurring and being registered and provides an approximate initial estimate of the potential impact of the reforms on results from the mortality monitor.

Mortality monitor software and user guide:

The mortality monitor software allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates whenever they wish. It produces the output that is included in the quarterly mortality monitors, but not calculations of excess mortality.

We are making the software available as a “beta” version, which is provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. It will need to be updated from time to time, as described in the user guide, and may stop working if the ONS changes the format of its data.

Should you encounter any errors, lack of functionality, or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Although the mortality monitors are publicly available, the software is restricted to Authorised Users: employees of CMI subscribers, and researchers for non-commercial use. The CMI website has details of how to become an Authorised User if you are not already.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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