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England & Wales population mortality updates

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales: 

  • We have published quarterly updates since Q4 of 2018.
  • We have published weekly updates since April 2020 that focus on Covid-19 and “excess mortality”. We publish summary versions each week, with more detailed versions every quarter.
  • We have released “beta” software that allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates.
  • Working Paper 111 describes the methods used and contains the first update. 

The mortality monitors report on all-cause and COVID-19 mortality. They do not offer any view on other causes of death or reasons for changes in mortality rates.

Latest updates:

  • Weekly summary – Week 47 of 2023 (published 5 December 2023)  
  • Weekly full  – Week 39 of 2023 (published 10 October 2023)
  • Quarterly – Q3 2023 (published 10 October 2023)             

Next planned updates:

  • Weekly summary – Week 48 of 2023, on 12 December 2023
  • Weekly full – Week 1 of 2024, in January 2024
  • Quarterly – Q4 2024, in January 2024                     

International excess mortality

Working Paper 180 was published in October 2023. The paper contains analysis of excess mortality for 24 international territories using data from the Human Mortality Database’s short-term mortality fluctuations dataset. This paper is publicly available. 

Notes:

Results of the mortality monitor are based on the date of registration of deaths. Using date of occurrence would give different results, particularly since late 2022. The appendix to the monitor for week 33 of 2023 discusses this and estimates the impact.

On 11 July 2023, we updated our population estimates to take account of results of the 2021 census. This led to higher estimates for mortality since 2011 than the previous dataset. There is further information in the mortality monitors for week 26 of 2023 and Q2 of 2023.

On 12 October 2021, we updated our population estimate for the second half of 2021. This resulted in a slight decrease in expected deaths for weeks 27 to 38 of 2021 and a corresponding increase in excess deaths for those weeks.

All weekly updates:

Quarterly updates:

Mortality monitor software and user guide:

The mortality monitor software allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates whenever they wish. It produces the output that is included in the quarterly mortality monitors, but not calculations of excess mortality.

We are making the software available as a “beta” version, which is provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. It will need to be updated from time to time, as described in the user guide, and may stop working if the ONS changes the format of its data.

Should you encounter any errors, lack of functionality, or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Although the mortality monitors are publicly available, the software is restricted to Authorised Users: employees of CMI subscribers, and researchers for non-commercial use. The CMI website has details of how to become an Authorised User if you are not already.

The software was updated on 17 July 2023 so that it can produce results for the second half of 2023 and to revise the population estimates for 2012-2023 using results of the 2021 census available to 17 July 2023 (discussed further in Appendix 2 of the Q2 2022 mortality monitor). 

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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