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Mortality monitor

England & Wales population mortality updates

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales: 

  • We have published “quarterly” updates since Q4 of 2018.
  • We are publishing “pandemic” updates during the current coronavirus pandemic, which focus on COVID-19 and “excess mortality”. From week 9 of 2021 we are publishing summary versions weekly, with more detailed versions every four or five weeks.
  • We have released “beta” software that allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates.
  • Working Paper 111 describes the methods used and contains the first update. 

Latest updates:

  • Summary pandemic – Week 46 of 2021 (published 1 December 2021)
  • Full pandemic – Week 44 of 2021 (published 16 November 2021)             
  • Quarterly – Q3 of 2021 (published 12 October 2021)             

Next planned updates:

  • Summary pandemic – Week 47 of 2021, on 7 December 2021
  • Full pandemic – Week 48 of 2021, on 14 December 2021
  • Quarterly – End of 2021, on 11 January 2022                     

Note:

On 12 October 2021, we updated our population estimate for the second half of 2021. This results in a slight decrease in expected deaths for weeks 27 to 38 of 2021 and a corresponding increase in excess deaths for those weeks – from 5% of expected to 7% of expected over that period. This does not affect other results, including cumulative SMRs and cumulative mortality improvements, or results for earlier weeks.

All “pandemic” updates:

Quarterly updates:

Mortality monitor software and user guide:

The mortality monitor software allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates whenever they wish. It produces the output that is included in the quarterly mortality monitors, but not calculations of excess mortality.

We are making the software available as a “beta” version, which is provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. It will need to be updated from time to time, as described in the user guide, and may stop working if the ONS changes the format of its data.

Should you encounter any errors, lack of functionality or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Although the mortality monitors are publicly available, the software is restricted to Authorised Users: employees of CMI subscribers, and researchers for non-commercial use. The CMI website has details of how to become an Authorised User, if you are not already.

The software was reissued on 12 October 2021 to update the population estimate, as noted above.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • The Growth Mindset for Actuaries

    13 October 2021 - 8 December 2021

    Fully booked.

    This practical course is aimed at actuaries at any stage of their career who want to develop their own growth mindset and apply it to their work setting and personal or professional lifelong learning. The content of the course builds on the lecture given by Dr Helen Wright on Growth Mindset as part of the President’s 2021 Lecture series, and will be delivered over a period of 2 months, from mid-October to early December.

  • Pensions Winter Forum: Pensions and Sustainability - challenges for actuaries

    6 December 2021

    Spaces available

    Actuaries need to take action now - but how?  With a focus on climate change, this session will provide informed insight to enable you to improve your knowledge and understanding of the issues involved, demonstrate how it will impact advice to your clients, and highlight prospective opportunities for actuaries within pensions and wider fields.

  • CMI Mortality Projections and SAPS committees – December 2021 webinar

    8 December 2021

    Spaces available

    A joint webinar from the CMI Mortality Projections and SAPS committees that will cover: recent mortality experience in the SAPS dataset and the general population; the CMI Model benchmarking survey; the MPC 2021 interim update paper; plans for CMI_2021; and initial thoughts on possible "S4" Series pensioner mortality tables.

    The webinar will be presented by Cobus Daneel (Chair of Mortality Projections Committee) and Matthew Fletcher (Chair of SAPS Committee).

  • Pensions Winter Forum: Pension Scams

    8 December 2021

    Spaces available

    Pension scams have become more prevalent as a result of the pandemic, and Trustees have increased responsibilities to protect members, which means that actuaries need to be in a position to provide advice in this area. Our specialist panel will include a professional trustee, an IFA and head administrator, two of whom are members of PASA.

  • Sessional Meeting: Allowing for shocks in portfolio mortality models

    15 December 2021

    Spaces available

    The Covid-19 pandemic creates a challenge for actuaries analysing experience data that includes mortality shocks.  To address this we present a methodology for modelling portfolio mortality data that offers local flexibility in the time dimension.  The approach permits the identification of seasonal variation, mortality shocks, and late-reported deaths.  The methodology also allows actuaries to measure portfolio-specific mortality improvements.  Results are given for a mature annuity portfolio in the UK

  • The Brian Hey Prize 2021 - LocalGLMnet: interpretable deep learning for tabular data

    15 December 2021

    Spaces available

    In this webinar, the authors of the 2021 Brian Hey prize winning paper present a new deep learning model called the LocalGLMnet. While deep learning models lead to very competitive regression models, often outperforming classical statistical models such as generalized linear models, the disadvantage is that deep learning solutions are difficult to interpret and explain, and variable selection is not easily possible.

  • Predictive Machine Learning for Underwriting Life and Health Insurance

    12 January 2022

    Spaces available

    The dominant underwriting approach is a mix between rule-based engines and traditional underwriting. Applications are first assessed by automated rule-based engines which typically are capable of processing only simple applications. The remaining applications are reviewed by underwriters or referred to the reinsurers. This research aims to construct predictive machine learning models for complicated applications that cannot be processed by rule-based engines.

  • Pensions Winter Forum: How to win the pensions endgame

    19 January 2022

    Spaces available

    With the Pension Schemes Act 2021 requiring a long term strategy from Trustees and sponsors, choosing a pensions endgame strategy has become even more critical. However, it is important that the endgame options available are adequately assessed before choosing one. With an ever-increasing array of creative and innovative options available, this decision may not be straightforward.