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Mortality monitor

England & Wales population mortality updates

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales: 

  • We have published “quarterly” updates since Q4 of 2018.
  • We are publishing “pandemic” updates during the current coronavirus pandemic that focus on Covid-19 and “excess mortality”. From week 9 of 2021, we are publishing summary versions weekly, with more detailed versions every four or five weeks.
  • We have released “beta” software that allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates.
  • Working Paper 111 describes the methods used and contains the first update. 

Latest updates:

  • Summary pandemic – Week 18 of 2022 (published 17 May 2022)
  • Full pandemic – Week 13 of 2022 (published 12 April 2022)       
  • Quarterly – Q1 2022 (published 12 April 2022)             

Next planned updates:

  • Summary pandemic – Week 19 of 2022, on 24 May 2022
  • Full pandemic – Week 26 of 2022, on 13 July 2022
  • Quarterly – Q2 of 2022, on 13 July 2022                     

Note:

On 12 October 2021, we updated our population estimate for the second half of 2021. This results in a slight decrease in expected deaths for weeks 27 to 38 of 2021 and a corresponding increase in excess deaths for those weeks – from 5% of expected to 7% of expected over that period. This does not affect other results, including cumulative SMRs and cumulative mortality improvements, or results for earlier weeks.

All “pandemic” updates:

Quarterly updates:

Mortality monitor software and user guide:

The mortality monitor software allows Authorised Users to produce their own ad hoc updates whenever they wish. It produces the output that is included in the quarterly mortality monitors, but not calculations of excess mortality.

We are making the software available as a “beta” version, which is provided on an “as is” and “own risk” basis. It will need to be updated from time to time, as described in the user guide, and may stop working if the ONS changes the format of its data.

Should you encounter any errors, lack of functionality, or other problems whilst using the software, please let us know by contacting projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Although the mortality monitors are publicly available, the software is restricted to Authorised Users: employees of CMI subscribers, and researchers for non-commercial use. The CMI website has details of how to become an Authorised User if you are not already.

The software was updated on 19 January 2022 to work with deaths data for 2022, using the revised ONS data format. It was further updated on 25 January 2022 and 23 February 2022 to allow for further changes to the ONS data format.

Contact Details

If you have any questions about the CMI please email

info@cmilimited.co.uk

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Events calendar

  • CILA 2022

    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

  • Annual General Meeting 2022

    15 June 2022

    Spaces available

    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

    The Business of the AGM

  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Houndsditch, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
    Spaces available

    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.

     

  • Is your ESG offering a misselling risk? This innovative concept can resolve that risk

    20 July 2022

    Spaces available

    This webinar will cover:

    • Some background on the risks of misselling in an ESG context, including the DWS case

    • Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities

    • This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership

    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

  • Healthcare transformation in KSA: Opportunities for Actuaries

    11 August 2022

    Spaces available

    This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on  the expected future changes. Through examining  the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial  expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.