International excess mortality

CMI Working Paper 180 includes an analysis of excess mortality for 24 international territories (including England & Wales and Scotland) using data from the Human Mortality Database’s short-term mortality fluctuations dataset.  

To measure expected deaths used in the calculation of excess deaths, we used the fitted age-standardised mortality rate (“ASMR”) in 2019 based on the trend in annual ASMRs for the period 2010 to 2019 (except for four territories for which we use a shorter period to 2019 and allowing for a seasonality effect using weekly ASMRs in the same period).

The working paper includes the following analyses:

  • Weekly excess mortality for 2020 to 2022
  • Cumulative excess mortality from week 10 of 2020 to week 52 of 2022
  • Cumulative excess mortality from week 26 of 2021 to week 52 of 2022

We also include as appendices weekly ASMRs, the annual ASMRs and the seasonality factors calculated for the 24 international territories. 

The outputs that accompany this paper are:

These outputs are publicly available.

An updated Working Paper 180 was issued in January 2024 to correct a minor typo in Section 3.7.

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