Working Paper 74: The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2014

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions

CMI Working Paper 74 accompanies the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2014, and is issued alongside the Model and an updated User Guide.

The structure of CMI_2014 is identical to that of the previous versions; however, 

  1. the default parameters contained in the Model have been updated to reflect England & Wales population mortality data for calendar year 2013, and for the first nine months of 2014; and
  2. the method for calibrating the default Core parameters for the Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement has been amended to take into account the quality of the available population mortality data

The default Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement in CMI_2014 are lower than those published in CMI_2013 for most ages for both males and females. This means that Core Projections generated by CMI_2014 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2013 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females. A notable exception to this is for men in their 90s – as the changes to the method used to derive Initial Rates of Mortality Improvement have largely removed the previously anomalous effect of the 1919 cohort.

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