The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2020

Important note: updated version of CMI_2020 software

Version 2 of the CMI_2020 software was released in February 2022 to address an issue with the interface of the CMI_2020 software. The previous version could lead to misleading results in a specific set of circumstances.

The issue in version 1 of CMI_2020 occurs if a user:

  • opts to use Advanced projection parameters (on the main tab);
  • selects the Advanced option for the initial addition parameters within the advanced projection parameters tab, which allows users to set age-specific initial addition parameters;
  • specifies a non-zero value for one or more initial addition parameters; and
  • reselects the Core option for the initial addition parameters (on the advanced projection parameters tab) while retaining the Advanced option for projection parameters generally (on the main tab).

In that case:

  • the resulting projection uses the values of the age-specific initial addition parameters previously specified as advanced parameters, not the Core value of nil at all ages.

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available on our page.

CMI Working Paper 147 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2020.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2020 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2020. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality in 2020 was significantly higher than in recent years. In light of this exceptional experience, we have introduced the ability for users to vary the weight the Model places on data for individual years. The Core value of CMI_2020 places no weight on data for 2020, and 100% weight on all other years.

Core projections generated by CMI_2020 produce slightly lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2019 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages. Increasing the 2020 weight parameter above the Core value further decreases life expectancy compared to CMI_2019.

Working Paper 147 contains numerical results from CMI_2020 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:

  • Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2020 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet
  • A spreadsheet which includes the “Non-COVID” dataset for males and females used in Appendix 4 of Working Paper 147.

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee will host a meeting at Staple Inn on 13 April 2021, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss longevity and public policy. Further details are available from the SIAS website.

Documents

Note: The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the mortality projections page.

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Events calendar

  • CILA 2022

    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

    Spaces available

    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

  • Spaces available

    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

    The Business of the AGM

  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Houndsditch, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
    Spaces available

    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.

     

  • Spaces available

    This webinar will cover:

    • Some background on the risks of misselling in an ESG context, including the DWS case

    • Achieving positive impact is a strong antidote to the risks of greenwashing or ESG misselling, however this risks having a tension with fiduciary responsibilities

    • This tension can be resolved with a concept called Universal Ownership

    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

  • Spaces available

    This session will focus on the transformation roadmap of the healthcare sector in KSA and the role of actuarial capabilities in enhancing its evolution to the desired end stage as per the objectives of the Vision 2030. The discussion will focus how the system has evolved so far and shed light on  the expected future changes. Through examining  the transformation, we will highlight how the sector is and can use actuarial  expertise to not only assist with this transformation but also use basic actuarial principles to identify the key risks and their respective mitigation strategies.