The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2020

CMI Working Paper 147 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2020.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2020 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2020. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality in 2020 was significantly higher than in recent years. In light of this exceptional experience, we have introduced the ability for users to vary the weight the Model places on data for individual years. The Core value of CMI_2020 places no weight on data for 2020, and 100% weight on all other years.

Core projections generated by CMI_2020 produce slightly lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2019 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages. Increasing the 2020 weight parameter above the Core value further decreases life expectancy compared to CMI_2019.

Working Paper 147 contains numerical results from CMI_2020 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:

  • Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2020 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet
  • A spreadsheet which includes the “Non-COVID” dataset for males and females used in Appendix 4 of Working Paper 147.

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee will host a meeting at Staple Inn on 13 April 2021, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss longevity and public policy. Further details are available from the SIAS website.

Documents

Note: The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the mortality projections page.

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