Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available to view on the mortality projections page.
Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.
CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.
A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.
Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
Documents and further reading
- CMI Working Paper 129
- Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- CMI_2019 methods
- CMI_2019 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2019
- Derivation of the male dataset used in CMI_2019
- Derivation of the female dataset used in CMI_2019
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work -
Finance & Investment Virtual Conference 2021
Available to watch globally in May.10-12 May 2021
This year's Finance and Investment Virtual Conference takes on the timely theme of ‘resilience’, something we have all learnt a lot more about in the last year! Our diverse range of talks will explore the theme of resilience in a variety of ways including in building robust investment portfolios, in the incorporation of ESG factors, in govern -
FRC Webinar - Your chance to hear about the actuarial reform proposals in BEIS' consultation
12 May 2021Following publication of BEIS' Consultation Document Restoring trust in audit and corporate governance the FRC will be holding a webinar to discuss actuarial regulatory reform. This webinar will be focused on the statutory regulatory basis, setting, monitoring & enforcing standards, and regulating entities.
-
Wearables in insurance: a win-win opportunity
14 May 2021
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity. -
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list. -
General Insurance Spring Conference 2021 webinar series
Online conference19-25 May 2021
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally. -
CILA 2021
Available to watch globally in May.19-21 May 2021
We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; on-going financial consequences of the COVID pandemic; or self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements and accounting standards. -
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
-
The world is changing. The fourth industrial revolution, globalisation and the COVID-19 pandemic are up-ending traditional social and business norms around the world; changes that were once predictable and steady are now faster and more profound. In response to this tumultuous transformation, Tan Suee Chieh has advocated a reinvention of the actuarial profession, through the adoption of the IFoA’s Vision, Skills, Mindsets and Domains (VSMD) Strategy, to ensure actuaries remain relevant and forward-looking.
-
Tools like python/R are being heavily used to provide end-to-end analytical solutions for risk management. They help to set up a framework/platform to collect risk data and work out stochastic analytics to provide insights into the risks faced by a firm, be it in any sector. Data science techniques are being used to not only assess risk, but to predict outcomes in the future based on stochastic analysis and impacts of mitigation techniques. This webinar talks about the possible applications of technology to assist actuarial advice in such situations.
-
The webinar will look at several aspects of intergenerational fairness and our panel of experts will challenge you, society, taxpayers and generations X, Y and Z on key aspects of DB v DC pensions, public v private sector pensions, state benefits and key aspects of sustainability.
-
Pensions Conference 2021
Online webinar series16-22 June 2021
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion. -
Annual General Meeting 2021
24 June 2021Given our commitment to the safety of our members and employees, and as the easing of restrictions in respect of COVID-19 cannot be guaranteed at this point in time, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year.
The Business of the AGM
-
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.The proposals come from a recent review of the PC Scheme which was the first substantive look at the IFoA’s approach to the requirements and process for PCs since 2010. It responds directly to feedback received on how the current scheme works especially that received from members and PC Holders.
-
Actuaries in all practice areas have had an “alert” to consider climate risk. A plethora of scenarios and tools are being developed both internally and as part of industry-wide initiatives but is there yet a sense of good practice?
-
The paper “Asset liability modelling in the quantum era” shall be presented by its authors, Tim Berry and James Sharpe, and chaired by Andrew Smith, Assistant Professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at University College Dublin. This gives a summary of historical and current practices in ALM, and then gives an insight into what ALM may be like in the immediate future by demonstrating how quantum computers can be used for ALM. A quantum algorithm for optimising ALM calculations is presented and tested using a quantum computer.
-
Internal audit is often the Cinderella of the audit world. It’s a regulatory requirement for insurance companies to have an internal audit function, so why not make it as useful as possible? This session will look at how to link an internal audit plan to the risk register, and how that helps audit committees and boards to spot problems and fix them. And, of course, how to demonstrate that this is happening.
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work
This talk will explore the potential benefits that wearable tech can bring to health & protection insurers and their customers. The traditional approach of integrating wearables into insurance has largely focused on measuring steps and using rewards-based incentive programs to encourage more activity.
Join us for this talk with Professor Sir Adrian Smith as part of the 'Dr Patrick Poon Presidential Speaker Series'. Professor Smith joined The Alan Turing Institute as Institute Director and Chief Executive in September 2018. In November 2020, he became President of the Royal Society, in addition to his leadership of the Turing. He is also a member of the government's AI Council, which helps boost AI growth in the UK and promote its adoption and ethical use in businesses and organisations across the country. He received a knighthood in the 2011 New Year Honours list.
The General Insurance (GI) Spring Conference is a result of the General Insurance Lifelong Learning Committee (GILL) combining this year’s 'Current Issues in General Insurance' (CIGI) and 'Technical Issues in General Insurance' (TIGI) conferences into a virtual webinar series over 19 – 25 May that will be available to watch online globally.
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.
Welcome to the programme for our 2nd Virtual Pensions Conference. This year's conference features 11 webinars offering members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the pension industry. There will also be opportunity to ask questions and contribute to the discussion.
This is a free webinar on the consultation on changes to the Practising Certificates (PC) Scheme.