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CMI Working Paper 129

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019

Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.

CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.

Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet. 

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Documents and further reading

Note

The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.

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  • Asia Conference Webinar Series

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    7 September 2020 - 25 September 2020

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    There will be a prestigious line-up of international speakers discussing the insurance and financial industry’s innovation and change in Asia.  The conference will take place throughout September via an online platform. The webinars consist of plenary speaking sessions and a series of workshop sessions including Life, GI, Data Science, Sustainability, Risk Management and Investment.

    This will be the perfect opportunity for you to discover,ask questions and be at the forefront of current and developing actuarial/financial topics and trends in Asia.

     

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    23 September 2020

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    This free 90 minute webinar is designed to support the IFoA CPD Co-ordinators, and others, involved in supporting our members to achieve their CPD requirements. 

    The programme will include an overview of the new CPD Scheme; specifically sharing with you key messages to support you implement and embrace the new CPD Scheme for our members within your organisation and regional community; how to arrange a reflective practice discussion; and an interactive reflective practice discussion learning exercise.  In addition, delegates will gain information about accessing, and making the most of the IFoA event Toolkits which you can make use of to run your own in-house events and events for regional communities. 

  • Asia Conference Webinar: The Role of Data Science in Customer-centric Insurance

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    23 September 2020

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    Consumer expectations are changing Insurance. The Royal Commission in Australia, Design Obligations in the UK, the insurtech ecosystem, and digital-first consumers demanding personalised solutions will all revolutionise how insurance looks like in the future.

  • Asia Conference Webinar: Ageing/Mortality Panel Session

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    24 September 2020

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    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presenter / panel workshop hybrid will be anchored by two presentations examining the socioeconomic, medical and technological factors that will have a significant impact on mortality and our pricing over the next 20 years and beyond. It will also discuss whether significant mortality improvement will continue in Asia or whether varying experience of low improvements or deterioration. 

  • Asia Conference:The C-Ross Phase II and its Potential Impact on Chinese Market

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    25 September 2020

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    12.00-13.00 GMT+8

    This presentation aims to provides an overview of the reformation of current Chinese regulatory solvency regime, how industry coping with the new normal after pandemic time and how the reformation of the regulation could help the insurance industry gets back on its feet as well as coming back to the “protection” core value for the policyholders. The presentation would include:

  • Asia Conference:Changes of China’s 2nd set Standardized CI definitions and Mortality Table

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    25 September 2020

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    16.00-17.00 (GMT+8) | 09.00-10.00 (BST)

    The basic data of China’s 2nd Critical Illness Mortality Table covers 2000+ products in Chinese market, including about 340 million insurance policies and 5.1 million claimants. Presenter will give the audience a general understanding including but not limited to the following contents:

  • Autumn Lecture 2020: Professor Elroy Dimson

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    14 October 2020

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    Many individuals and institutions have a long-term focus, and invest funds for the benefit of future generations. Their strategy should reflect their long horizon. University endowments are one of the oldest classes of institutional investor, and I will present the first study of the management of these endowments over the very long term.

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    02-13 November 2020
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    This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.

  • Autumn Pensions Webinar: Cash is King - What next for CDI?

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    4 December 2020

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    Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements.

  • Autumn Pensions Webinar: Impact of Dividends

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    8 December 2020

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    The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report.