Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.
CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.
A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.
Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
Documents and further reading
- CMI Working Paper 129
- Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- CMI_2019 methods
- CMI_2019 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2019
- Derivation of the male dataset used in CMI_2019
- Derivation of the female dataset used in CMI_2019
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.
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Events calendar
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Life Conference 2020 Webinar Series
Online16 November 2020 - 27 November 2020
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Autumn Pensions Webinar: Update from The Pensions Regulator (TPR)
Webinar1 December 2020
This webinar will provide an update on the emerging thinking around future regulation of DB schemes:
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Autumn Pensions Webinar: To the end game and beyond
Webinar2 December 2020The webinar will discuss the challenges and opportunities schemes face in evaluating end game options, choosing a target state and understanding the impact this strategic decision could have on member outcomes long after the “end state” is reached. Adolfo, Kevin and Rhian bring over 60 years of experience in the industry and a variety of perspectives as scheme actuary, covenant adviser, trustee, de-risking adviser and insurer. -
Data Science in Banking - Opportunities and Risks
Webinar3 December 2020Retail banking is going through a period of substantial change as it moves into the digital age. Banks have large amounts of data about their customers and about their risks. Open data application programming interface (APIs) and data science are enabling banks to use their data to offer innovative and sometimes personalised services. Data science is also adding value in risk areas such as fraud detection and cyber security. At the same time, the move to online banking is making it easier for firms including fintechs to enter banking without having to establish branch networks.
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UK Town Hall 08:30-09:30
Webinar4 December 2020
IFoA President Tan Suee Chieh would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual UK Town Hall 2020, hosted by Tan Suee Chieh with IFoA’s Immediate Past President, John Taylor, President Elect, Louise Pryor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. -
UK Town Hall 10:00-11:00
Webinar4 December 2020IFoA President Tan Suee Chieh would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual UK Town Hall 2020, hosted by Tan Suee Chieh with IFoA’s Immediate Past President, John Taylor, President Elect, Louise Pryor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. -
Autumn Pensions Webinar: Cash is King - What next for CDI?
Webinar4 December 2020Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements. -
Autumn Pensions Webinar: Legal update - The letter of the law
Webinar7 December 2020Patrick Kennedy, Partner at Gateley Legal and Founding Director of Entrust (a leading professional pensions trustee company), will be delivering an update on the latest legal developments during the course of 2020. With both a pensions legal perspective and over 25 years of trustee service, Patrick will seek to highlight how the letter of the law has continued to evolve against the backdrop of a difficult and challenging year -
Autumn Pensions Webinar: Impact of Dividends
Webinar8 December 2020The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report. -
Sessional Webinar: To the end game and beyond
Webinar11 January 2021
Running off the £2 trillion of UK corporate sector defined benefit liabilities in an efficient and effective fashion is the biggest challenge facing the UK pensions industry. Trustees and sponsors overseeing those schemes need to be clear on their target end-state and the associated journey plan – but too few have well articulated and robust plans.
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Inside the Banking Boardroom – Opportunities for Actuaries
Webinar14 January 2021The actuarial skill set has much to offer the banking industry. So many of the skills that actuaries acquire during their working life translate across to the world of banking and yet banking is perceived as an alien environment to many actuaries. But is it?
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An update from the IFoA’s Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] Risk Management workstreams
Webinar25 January 2021Covid-19 has required an urgent and cross-practice initiative to facilitate the extensive impact this pandemic has across all industries. IFoA members have been keen to contribute in a different way, so we developed the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] to coordinate our effort, with a more efficient governance.
We have over 500 volunteers and countless topics which we have amalgamated into 93 workstreams.
IFoA President Tan Suee Chieh would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual UK Town Hall 2020, hosted by Tan Suee Chieh with IFoA’s Immediate Past President, John Taylor, President Elect, Louise Pryor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. 