Important note: updated version of CMI_2019 software
Version 2 of the CMI_2019 software was released in February 2022 to address an issue with the interface of the CMI_2019 software. The previous version could lead to misleading results in a specific set of circumstances.
The issue in version 1 of CMI_2019 occurs if a user:
- opts to use Advanced projection parameters (on the main tab);
- selects the Advanced option for the initial addition parameters within the advanced projection parameters tab, which allows users to set age specific initial addition parameters;
- specifies a non-zero value for one or more initial addition parameters; and
- reselects the Core option for the initial addition parameters (on the advanced projection parameters tab) while retaining the Advanced option for projection parameters generally (on the main tab).
In that case:
- the resulting projection uses the values of the age-specific initial addition parameters previously specified as advanced parameters, not the Core value of nil at all ages.
Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available to view on the mortality projections page.
CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.
A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.
Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
Documents and further reading
- CMI Working Paper 129
- Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- CMI_2019 methods
- CMI_2019 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2019 v2
- Derivation of the male dataset used in CMI_2019
- Derivation of the female dataset used in CMI_2019
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
The Gender Pension Gap
16 May 2022We’ve all heard about the gender pay gap. Sadly, the gap doesn’t just exist with base pay.
Research carried out by Legal & General in 2021 across the four million members in our Defined Contribution (DC) pensions, found that there’s a gender pension gap too, continuing the divide between men and women.
-
As current global events continue to demonstrate, geopolitical tensions present significant risks to corporates of all sizes. However, these types of risk are often not given the discussion time it needs at the board level or executive committee levels, nor the resources required to anticipate, analyse and mitigate them effectively.
-
Sessional Meeting: Pension Decumulation Pathways
17 May 2022At retirement, it has become very popular for those with Defined Contribution (DC) pensions to choose drawdown rather than an annuity, but drawing a sustainable lifetime income in this way is an impossible challenge for most people. We consider a Decumulation Pathway for the typical consumer, where a small part of the DC fund is set aside for any flexible access and legacy requirements. The bulk is then used to provide a lifetime income, utilising the pooling or insuring of longevity risk.
-
CILA 2022
23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.
-
Annual General Meeting 2022
15 June 2022In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.
The Business of the AGM
-
IFoA Presidential Address 2022
16 June 2022Join newly inaugurated IFoA President, Matt Saker, for his Presidential Address.
-
The IFoA Conference 2022
133 Liverpool St, London EC3A 7BX and Online22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.
