Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available to view on the mortality projections page.
Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.
CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.
A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.
Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.
The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
Documents and further reading
- CMI Working Paper 129
- Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
- CMI_2019 methods
- CMI_2019 software user guide
- The updated Model, CMI_2019
- Derivation of the male dataset used in CMI_2019
- Derivation of the female dataset used in CMI_2019
Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.
Filter or search events
Events calendar
-
TPR Climate Change Guidance Consultation
17 August 2021
Louise Pryor, IFoA President, will chair this free-to-view session, in which Alex Darsley, TPR, Actuarial Regulatory Policy, will be discussing the regulator’s Climate Change Guidance Consultation, which is seeking views on new guidance designed to help trustees meet tougher standards of governance in relation to climate change ri -
September 2021 - Exam Preparation Techniques Webinar
23 August 2021.
-
Internal audit is often the Cinderella of the audit world. It’s a regulatory requirement for insurance companies to have an internal audit function, so why not make it as useful as possible? This session will look at how to link an internal audit plan to the risk register, and how that helps audit committees and boards to spot problems and fix them. -
Climate change is one of the greatest risks facing our world today. Addressing it will require multi-faceted solutions. Through this panel session, we will explore the different levers that can be used to meet net-zero targets including climate science and data, government engagement, and mobilising green finance.
Louise Pryor, IFoA President, will chair this free-to-view session, in which Alex Darsley, TPR, Actuarial Regulatory Policy, will be discussing the regulator’s 
Internal audit is often the Cinderella of the audit world. It’s a regulatory requirement for insurance companies to have an internal audit function, so why not make it as useful as possible? This session will look at how to link an internal audit plan to the risk register, and how that helps audit committees and boards to spot problems and fix them.
Climate change is one of the greatest risks facing our world today. Addressing it will require multi-faceted solutions. Through this panel session, we will explore the different levers that can be used to meet net-zero targets including climate science and data, government engagement, and mobilising green finance.