The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. A full list of the versions of the Model is available to view on the mortality projections page.

Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.

CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.

Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Documents and further reading

Note

The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.

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