The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019

Meeting postponed: The Committee planned to host a meeting at Staple Inn on 1 April 2020, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS). This meeting has been postponed indefinitely, in light of the coronavirus.

CMI Working Paper 129 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2019.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2019 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2019.

Core projections generated by CMI_2019 produce slightly higher expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2018 (with other parameters held constant) for most ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 129 contains numerical results from CMI_2019 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2019 dataset for males and females. The adjustments to population estimates at high ages are carried out in a separate spreadsheet

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

Documents and further reading

Note

The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed on the Mortality Projections page.

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Events calendar

  • Finance in the Public Interest Series

    16 March 2021 - 23 March 2021

    Spaces available

    There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.

  • The price is righter

    16 March 2021

    Spaces available

    This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.

  • Spaces available

    This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)

     

  • Spaces available

    What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.

  • Spaces available

    Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis.  However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year.  This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.