The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2016
|Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions|
CMI Working Papers 97, 98 and 99 are issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2016.
An updated version of the CMI_2016 software, v03, was released in August 2018 to allow the "live link" to continue to work following changes to the Human Mortality Database website. This change does not affect the CMI_2016 projections.
An updated version of the CMI_2016 software, v02, with enhanced functionality was released in November 2017. These changes do not affect the CMI_2016 projections. A new version of Working Paper 99 has also been published to reflect these changes. Working Paper 103 describes the updates made to the software. An updated version of Working Paper 97 was also released in November 2017 to correct an error in Table A2.
An Executive Summary has been produced for Working Paper 97 and is contained in a separate document; this provides a brief synopsis of the working paper and is publicly-available.
The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2016. Its method differs in a number of respects from earlier versions, following the consultation described in Working Papers 90, 91 and 93.
Core Projections generated by CMI_2016 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2015 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.
Working Paper 97 contains numerical results from CMI_2016, and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and in the CMI SAPS dataset.
Previous versions of the Model have been accompanied by a User Guide. For CMI_2016 this is superseded by a combination of Working Paper 98, which contains technical details of the calculations, and Working Paper 99, which describes how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2016 dataset.
The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software, than please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.
The Committee held a meeting at Staple Inn on 11 April 2017, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements. Slides and an audio recording are available from the SIAS website.
If you have any questions about the CMI please email
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Presenter Matt Modisett
In collaboration with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the Principles of Responsible Investment is delighted to host this webinar discussing the response to the TCFD’s recommendations two years on from their publication. The webinar will feature new analysis of the 591 investors representing $45 trillion who responded to PRI’s 2019 climate indicators, insights from the past Chair of the IFoA’s Resource and Environment Board as well as an investor case study of implementation in practice from Aviva.
An introductory session to help you get ahead with climate change.
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This KSS talk, presented by the FCA Head of Department in Scotland, will focus on the following 3 main areas:
- FCA business plan priorities
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- FCA Engagement in Scotland
Friday, 6 September, Beijing Local Time (CST) 14.00-16.30; British Summer Time (BST) 07.00-9.30
The IFoA Beijing Office and China Life are pleased to be co-hosting a Professional Skills Training (PST) session in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen on Friday, 6 September. Wen Li (FIA), the IFoA Lead Representative in China and East Asia, will lead the PST presentation and discussion on ‘Getting it right!’.
The main venue will be in Beijing. Members in Shanghai and Shenzhen can join the interaction with Beijing via video conference at China Life’s regional venues. (see full details below)
This event is now fully booked. Please click here to register for the wait list.
The actuarial profession has much to offer the world of banking. In this second webinar on opportunities for actuaries in banking we have two actuaries sharing their experience
GIRO is attended annually by over 800 delegates and speakers who are keen to discuss key topics such as Pricing, Reserving, Modelling and the future of the insurance industry. GIRO 2018 was a huge success and we have opened bookings early for what we hope will be another brilliant conference at the EICC in Edinburgh this year.
Presenter Jon Spain
This workshop, now in its sixth year, is aimed at senior actuaries working in life insurance - predominantly Chief Actuaries, but also Reviewing Actuaries and others working in risk and financial reporting. It will provide seven hours of relevant CPD.
Three actuaries – and CEOs – discuss their views on how the business world is changing and what that might mean for actuaries in the future.
Have you ever thought about working in wider fields? Would you like to play a role in the fight against climate change to make the planet better?
It can be difficult to do this - but seeing an example you can follow can make it more realistic. In this ‘green’ case study a template is outlined to show how actuaries can apply their skills more broadly - and in doing so, to make a difference.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the Royal Statistical Society have worked together to develop joint ethics guidance on data science. This is the culmination of an 18 month programme of practitioner led work.
Join us for the launch of this new guidance, with a high-level panel discussion which will explore the role of data science practitioners and professional bodies in data ethics.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October. The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters.
ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.
This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.
This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.
Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.
The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:
- population statistics
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- changes in age structure
- birth and death rates, including causes of death statistics.
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals.
The IFoA is pleased to announce that this year’s Autumn Lecture will feature the Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP as its guest speaker. Nicky has previously served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Minister for Women. She now chairs the Treasury Select Committee whose remit is to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, along with all of its agencies and associated bodies.
Watch the live stream of this year's Autumn Lecture with guest speaker Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP.
We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.