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CMI Working Papers 97, 98 and 99

The CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2016

Note: More recent versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model have subsequently been released. View the full list of model versions

CMI Working Papers 97, 98 and 99 are issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2016.

Please note that we became aware in 2020 that the calculation of deviance and deviance residuals in CMI_2016 is incorrect when age/year cells in the calibration datasets have no deaths. This does not affect the Core dataset, and only has a marginal impact on the fitted model for other datasets that we have tested. Because of the limited impact, and the time since the release of CMI_2016, we have not issued a corrected version of the Model.

An updated version of the CMI_2016 software, v03, was released in August 2018 to allow the "live link" to continue to work following changes to the Human Mortality Database website.  This change does not affect the CMI_2016 projections.

An updated version of the CMI_2016 software, v02, with enhanced functionality was released in November 2017. These changes do not affect the CMI_2016 projections. A new version of Working Paper 99 has also been published to reflect these changes. Working Paper 103 describes the updates made to the software. An updated version of Working Paper 97 was also released in November 2017 to correct an error in Table A2.

An Executive Summary has been produced for Working Paper 97 and is contained in a separate document; this provides a brief synopsis of the working paper and is publicly-available.

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2016. Its method differs in a number of respects from earlier versions, following the consultation described in Working Papers 90, 91 and 93.

Core Projections generated by CMI_2016 produce lower expectations of life than those produced by CMI_2015 (with other parameters held constant) for all ages for both males and females.

Working Paper 97 contains numerical results from CMI_2016, and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and in the CMI SAPS dataset.

Previous versions of the Model have been accompanied by a User Guide. For CMI_2016 this is superseded by a combination of Working Paper 98, which contains technical details of the calculations, and Working Paper 99, which describes how to use the software. Two additional spreadsheets have been released to show the derivation of the CMI_2016 dataset.

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 2010 and Excel 2016 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software.  If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software, than please let us know at Projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee held a meeting at Staple Inn on 11 April 2017, in conjunction with the Staple Inn Actuarial Society (SIAS), to discuss recent mortality experience and the prospects for future mortality improvements.  Slides and an audio recording are available from the SIAS website.

 

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