Working Paper 166 compares two mortality projection models – the latest version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021, and the latest Mortality Improvement Scale, MP-2021, produced by the Society of Actuaries (SoA) Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC). We applied both models to data for England & Wales and the US and compared results.
The two models have similar principles – both project mortality improvements by interpolating between recent mortality improvements, estimated based on historical data, and assumed long-term rates of mortality improvement. However, the details of the models differ, including how they estimate current mortality improvements and the period over which mortality improvements converge to the long-term rate.
Our analysis focusses on comparing how results for a given country vary between the two models, rather than how results vary between the countries. We find that for both datasets and most ages:
- MP--2021 leads to higher cohort life expectancies than CMI_2021.
- Life expectancy is more sensitive to the long-term rate for MP-2021 than for CMI_2021.
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