Working Paper 166 compares two mortality projection models – the latest version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021, and the latest Mortality Improvement Scale, MP-2021, produced by the Society of Actuaries (SoA) Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC). We applied both models to data for England & Wales and the US and compared results.
The two models have similar principles – both project mortality improvements by interpolating between recent mortality improvements, estimated based on historical data, and assumed long-term rates of mortality improvement. However, the details of the models differ, including how they estimate current mortality improvements and the period over which mortality improvements converge to the long-term rate.
Our analysis focusses on comparing how results for a given country vary between the two models, rather than how results vary between the countries. We find that for both datasets and most ages:
- MP-2021 leads to higher cohort life expectancies than CMI_2021.
- Life expectancy is more sensitive to the long-term rate for MP-2021 than for CMI_2021.
At the request of a Subscriber, in October 2024 we released the US data used in the analysis along with a version of the CMI_2021 Model with US data included that is used in the calculations in Working Paper 166. Please note that the US data is publicly available to download and the CMI_2021 Model is available only to CMI Subscribers. The US data was prepared by the Society of Actuaries (SoA) Research Institute’s Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) and is described in Section 2.2 of Working Paper 166.
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