You are here

My account » CMI Working Paper 201
CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2024

CMI Working Paper 201 is issued alongside the updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2024.

A frequently asked questions (FAQ) page on CMI_2024 has also been issued and is publicly available alongside this paper. It provides a brief overview of mortality improvements and the latest version of the Model. 

The latest version of the Model is calibrated to England & Wales population mortality data up to 31 December 2024. We have consulted on the method for CMI_2024 in Working Paper 197, with the results of the consultation published in Working Paper 200. In summary, the changes in method compared to CMI_2023 are as follows:

  • including a “fitted overlay” in the new age-period-cohort-overlay improvement” (APCOI) model; 
  • extending the APCOI model to have five period terms (using a quadratic basis) rather than one;
  • applying cohort constraints after fitting the APCOI model, rather than within it; 
  • changing the algorithm used to fit the APCOI model; and
  • changing the cohort convergence period to be shorter at younger ages. 

Core projections generated by CMI_2024 produce cohort life expectancies that are higher than those produced by CMI_2023 (with other parameters held constant) for ages 45 and above for males and ages 65 and above for females, and lower than CMI_2023 for ages below age 45 for males and below age 65 for females. 

Working Paper 201 contains numerical results from CMI_2024 and commentary. It also contains analysis of recent mortality in the general population and illustrations of the sensitivity of the Model to new data.

The Model is accompanied by a methods paper, containing technical details of the calculations, and a user guide, describing how to use the software. Three additional spreadsheets have been released:

  • Two spreadsheets show the derivation of the CMI_2024 dataset for males and females. 
  • A spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the results working paper. 

The software has been tested and found to work properly using Excel 365 in a Windows environment. If you see a yellow banner in Excel with buttons saying e.g. ‘Enable Editing’ or ‘Enable Content’ then you will need to click on these buttons in order to run the software. If however you see a red banner and the button to proceed is disabled preventing you from running the software than please let us know at projections@cmilimited.co.uk.

The Committee hosted a webinar on 17 July 2025 to discuss CMI_2024. A link to the recording of the webinar is available in this document. The presentation slides are available here and we have published a document that answers a number of questions asked using the webinar Q&A feature that the presenters ran out of time to answer.

Documents

This paper and accompanying documents are available to Authorised Users only.

Note
The previous versions of the CMI Mortality Projections Model can all be accessed here.

Events calendar

No results found.