The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021. The exceptional mortality experience during the coronavirus pandemic means that a version of CMI_2020 that takes account of mortality data for 2020 in the usual way would be likely to show substantial falls in life expectancy, which we think would be in excess of what most users of the Model would consider reasonable.
We are consulting on two proposed changes to the method for CMI_2020:
- To address the exceptional data for 2020, we propose to modify the calibration process for the Model so that users could place more or less weight on data for individual years. For the Core version of the Model, we currently propose to place no weight on data for 2020, and full weight on other years, but we will review this in light of mortality experience for the rest of 2020.
- Unrelated to the experience of 2020, we propose to amend the age range of the dataset that we use to calibrate the Model. The intention of this change is to avoid unrealistically low initial mortality improvements at high ages, caused by limitations in how the Model copes with large historical shifts in mortality improvements that have varied significantly by age.
Working Paper 137 seeks feedback on our proposals. The deadline for responses is 1 November 2020, and we expect to publish the results of the consultation by mid-December.
Updated 12 October 2020: We have issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation. This incorporates our proposed changes, and an illustrative dataset for 2020, consistent with Working Paper 137. The software is intended to allow users to better understand the implications of our proposals, and assist them in responding to the consultation.
Please note that:
- The illustrative software is provided as a “beta” version on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.
- Results from CMI_2020 will differ from those of the illustrative software.
Updated 14 December 2020: The consultation closed on 1 November 2020, and the results of the consultation were published in Working Paper 143.
The illustrative software reflects the calibration age range of 20-90 proposed in Working Paper 137. We have not updated it to reflect the revised intention, a calibration age range of 20-100, confirmed in Working Paper 143.
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Presidential Speaker Series - The New Long Life
Webinar26 January 2021Drawing from his most recent book “The New Long Life” and his longevity research Andrew J Scott will outline how longer lives and new technologies will fundamentally reshape how we structure our lives and transform the economy. As well as looking at the agenda this will set governments and corporates he will focus on the implications for you and how you prepare your future career.
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Pensions: Actuarial Factors used to Calculate Benefits in UK Pension Schemes
Webinar28 January 2021The IFoA’s Actuarial Review Team has published its first thematic review, which looked at the actuarial advice given by scheme actuaries to UK pension scheme trustees on setting transfer values and commutation rates.
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India Town Hall
Webinar28 January 2021
IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual India Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Member Mahidhara Davangere and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. -
Winter Thought Leadership Lecture with Vicky Pryce
Webinar3 February 2021What are the options for the world economy looking ahead?
In this Thought Leadership Lecture, Economist, Vicky Pryce, will be discussing world economic trends, including the differences in geographical performance and how output is recovering and where.
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Professional Skills Training Webinar - 9 February 2021
Webinar9 February 2021
Trust and Leadership for ActuariesLed by Dr. Jim Baxter, University of Leeds, this webinar introduces some key ideas in the ethics of trust, with a particular focus on those in, or on the path to, leadership roles. Dr Baxter is joined by a panel of experienced leaders who will give their personal perspectives on how they understand the value of trust and how they seek to promote and inspire trust, drawing on their experiences of leadership. The panel includes:
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Health and Care Hot Topics webinar
Online webinar10 February 2021In this webinar, we have two presentations showing the latest research on the implications for life and health insurers of two key issues: genomics and pandemic risk.
Dr Peter Joshi and Paul Timmers will share their research on how well-established underwriting processes can allow for genomics in predicting expected mortality and morbidity. They will then discuss the potential for stratified screening and personalised medicine to improve health and reduce claim costs.
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As the world’s attention begins to turn to COP26 later this year in Glasgow, Sarah Gordon (Chief Executive, Impact Investing Institute) will share her vision for how the financial services industry can deliver for people and the planet, as well as how to encourage more investment with the intention to generate positive, measurable social and environmental impact alongside a financial return.
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Sub-Saharan Africa Town Hall
26 February 2021IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual SSA Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Members Mukami Njeru, Prosper Matiashe and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann. -
MENAP Town Hall
2 March 2021IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual MENAP Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.
IFoA Immediate Past President John Taylor would like to invite you to the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) virtual India Town Hall 2021, hosted by John Taylor with IFoA Council Member Mahidhara Davangere and IFoA Chief Executive, Stephen Mann.