The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021. The exceptional mortality experience during the coronavirus pandemic means that a version of CMI_2020 that takes account of mortality data for 2020 in the usual way would be likely to show substantial falls in life expectancy, which we think would be in excess of what most users of the Model would consider reasonable.
We are consulting on two proposed changes to the method for CMI_2020:
- To address the exceptional data for 2020, we propose to modify the calibration process for the Model so that users could place more or less weight on data for individual years. For the Core version of the Model, we currently propose to place no weight on data for 2020, and full weight on other years, but we will review this in light of mortality experience for the rest of 2020.
- Unrelated to the experience of 2020, we propose to amend the age range of the dataset that we use to calibrate the Model. The intention of this change is to avoid unrealistically low initial mortality improvements at high ages, caused by limitations in how the Model copes with large historical shifts in mortality improvements that have varied significantly by age.
Working Paper 137 seeks feedback on our proposals. The deadline for responses is 1 November 2020, and we expect to publish the results of the consultation by mid-December.
Updated 12 October 2020: We have issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation. This incorporates our proposed changes, and an illustrative dataset for 2020, consistent with Working Paper 137. The software is intended to allow users to better understand the implications of our proposals, and assist them in responding to the consultation.
Please note that:
- The illustrative software is provided as a “beta” version on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.
- Results from CMI_2020 will differ from those of the illustrative software.
Documents:
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Events calendar
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GIRO 2020 Virtual Conference
Available to watch globally in November.02-13 November 2020
This year's GIRO has been re-designed as a virtual conference to offer members and non-members the opportunity to get up to date content from leading experts in the general insurance field via online webinars. All sessions will be recorded and made available to purchase and re-watch post-event on the IFoA's GI Online Learning Resource area.
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Life Conference 2020 Webinar Series
Online16 November 2020 - 27 November 2020
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Autumn Pensions Webinar: Update from The Pensions Regulator (TPR)
Webinar1 December 2020
This webinar will provide an update on the emerging thinking around future regulation of DB schemes:
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Autumn Pensions Webinar: To the end game and beyond
Webinar2 December 2020The webinar will discuss the challenges and opportunities schemes face in evaluating end game options, choosing a target state and understanding the impact this strategic decision could have on member outcomes long after the “end state” is reached. Adolfo, Kevin and Rhian bring over 60 years of experience in the industry and a variety of perspectives as scheme actuary, covenant adviser, trustee, de-risking adviser and insurer. -
Data Science in Banking - Opportunities and Risks
Webinar3 December 2020Retail banking is going through a period of substantial change as it moves into the digital age. Banks have large amounts of data about their customers and about their risks. Open data application programming interface (APIs) and data science are enabling banks to use their data to offer innovative and sometimes personalised services. Data science is also adding value in risk areas such as fraud detection and cyber security. At the same time, the move to online banking is making it easier for firms including fintechs to enter banking without having to establish branch networks.
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Autumn Pensions Webinar: Cash is King - What next for CDI?
Webinar4 December 2020Cash-flow driven investing is a game-changer for DB pension funds navigating their end-game. Suitable for sponsors who want to reduce risks on their balance sheets. And for trustees, it shifts the focus to providing greater certainty of returns, managing funding level volatility and ensuring they have enough income to pay cash-flow requirements. -
Autumn Pensions Webinar: Legal update - The letter of the law
Webinar7 December 2020Patrick Kennedy, Partner at Gateley Legal and Founding Director of Entrust (a leading professional pensions trustee company), will be delivering an update on the latest legal developments during the course of 2020. With both a pensions legal perspective and over 25 years of trustee service, Patrick will seek to highlight how the letter of the law has continued to evolve against the backdrop of a difficult and challenging year -
Autumn Pensions Webinar: Impact of Dividends
Webinar8 December 2020The talk will provide an understanding of the priorities and relationships between deficit reduction contributions, in the context of wider scheme funding, and different types of value outflow from the employer based on the working party’s recently published report. -
An update from the IFoA’s Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] Risk Management workstreams
Webinar25 January 2021Covid-19 has required an urgent and cross-practice initiative to facilitate the extensive impact this pandemic has across all industries. IFoA members have been keen to contribute in a different way, so we developed the IFoA Covid-19 Action Taskforce [ICAT] to coordinate our effort, with a more efficient governance.
We have over 500 volunteers and countless topics which we have amalgamated into 93 workstreams.
