The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021. The exceptional mortality experience during the coronavirus pandemic means that a version of CMI_2020 that takes account of mortality data for 2020 in the usual way would be likely to show substantial falls in life expectancy, which we think would be in excess of what most users of the Model would consider reasonable.
We are consulting on two proposed changes to the method for CMI_2020:
- To address the exceptional data for 2020, we propose to modify the calibration process for the Model so that users could place more or less weight on data for individual years. For the Core version of the Model, we currently propose to place no weight on data for 2020, and full weight on other years, but we will review this in light of mortality experience for the rest of 2020.
- Unrelated to the experience of 2020, we propose to amend the age range of the dataset that we use to calibrate the Model. The intention of this change is to avoid unrealistically low initial mortality improvements at high ages, caused by limitations in how the Model copes with large historical shifts in mortality improvements that have varied significantly by age.
Working Paper 137 seeks feedback on our proposals. The deadline for responses is 1 November 2020, and we expect to publish the results of the consultation by mid-December.
Updated 12 October 2020: We have issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation. This incorporates our proposed changes, and an illustrative dataset for 2020, consistent with Working Paper 137. The software is intended to allow users to better understand the implications of our proposals, and assist them in responding to the consultation.
Please note that:
- The illustrative software is provided as a “beta” version on an “as is” and “own risk” basis.
- Results from CMI_2020 will differ from those of the illustrative software.
Updated 14 December 2020: The consultation closed on 1 November 2020, and the results of the consultation were published in Working Paper 143.
The illustrative software reflects the calibration age range of 20-90 proposed in Working Paper 137. We have not updated it to reflect the revised intention, a calibration age range of 20-100, confirmed in Working Paper 143.
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