CMI_2020 consultation

The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021. The exceptional mortality experience during the coronavirus pandemic means that a version of CMI_2020 that takes account of mortality data for 2020 in the usual way would be likely to show substantial falls in life expectancy, which we think would be in excess of what most users of the Model would consider reasonable.

We are consulting on two proposed changes to the method for CMI_2020:

  • To address the exceptional data for 2020, we propose to modify the calibration process for the Model so that users could place more or less weight on data for individual years. For the Core version of the Model, we currently propose to place no weight on data for 2020, and full weight on other years, but we will review this in light of mortality experience for the rest of 2020.
  • Unrelated to the experience of 2020, we propose to amend the age range of the dataset that we use to calibrate the Model. The intention of this change is to avoid unrealistically low initial mortality improvements at high ages, caused by limitations in how the Model copes with large historical shifts in mortality improvements that have varied significantly by age.

Working Paper 137 seeks feedback on our proposals. The deadline for responses is 1 November 2020, and we expect to publish the results of the consultation by mid-December.

We issued illustrative software to accompany the consultation, but this has been withdrawn following the publication of CMI_2020.

Updated 14 December 2020: The consultation closed on 1 November 2020, and the results of the consultation were published in Working Paper 143.

Documents:

 

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    23 May 2022 - 24 May 2022

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    We continue to live in a world of global uncertainty. Survival depends on our ability to simultaneously navigate through the diverse root-causes, ranging from: the consequences of Climate Change; transitioning to Net Zero; increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues; to self-imposed changes in regulatory requirements. CILA 2022 focuses on these challenges to ensure we continue to be informed and remain battle ready, as well as showcasing highlights of recent CMI outputs.

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    In the spirit of fostering the IFoA’s vibrant, global community and enabling our members to participate, we have decided to hold our AGM virtually again this year. This allows for greater accessibility to this important annual event, and for greater accountability of our organisation.

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  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Houndsditch, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
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    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.

     

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    • Under Universal ownership, investors have an appetite to make a loss in order to achieve positive impact, and yet still have no compromise on their fiduciary responsibilities

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