Results of the CMI_2020 consultation

The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2020, by the end of March 2021.

We proposed two changes in method for the CMI_2020 version of the Model, in Working Paper 137, published in September 2020, and sought feedback from Authorised Users.

Working Paper 143 summarises the responses to the consultation and describes our plans for CMI_2020:

  • Weighting mortality data for 2020: Following broad support from respondents to the consultation, we will modify the calibration process for CMI_2020 so that users could choose to place more or less weight on data for individual years. In particular the Core version of CMI_2020 will use a weight of 0% for 2020 data, and weights of 100% for all other years.
     
  • Change to calibration age range: Many respondents agreed with our proposal to change the calibration age range to 20-90, based on the supporting analysis in Working Paper 137. However a number of respondents noted that the analysis was sensitive to the period of data considered, and alternative analyses would justify retaining the existing approach. In light of these responses, and our further analysis, we will calibrate CMI_2020 to data for ages 20 to 100 inclusive, as in CMI_2019.

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  • The Growth Mindset for Actuaries

    13 October 2021 - 8 December 2021

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    This practical course is aimed at actuaries at any stage of their career who want to develop their own growth mindset and apply it to their work setting and personal or professional lifelong learning. The content of the course builds on the lecture given by Dr Helen Wright on Growth Mindset as part of the President’s 2021 Lecture series, and will be delivered over a period of 2 months, from mid-October to early December.

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    Content will be aimed at all actuaries looking to understand the issues surrounding mental health in insurance and in particular those looking to ensure products and processes widen access for, and are most useful to, those experiencing periods of poor mental health.