CMI Working Paper 173: Results of the CMI_2022 consultation

The CMI typically releases an updated version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model each year and we expect to release the next version, CMI_2022, by the end of June 2023. 

We issued Working Paper 168 in January 2023 which consulted on our proposed method for CMI_2022:

  • updating the period of calibration data by one year as usual, to 1982-2022 for CMI_2022; and
  • setting a weight of 25% for data in 2022.

While respondents to the consultation have a range of views, the responses as a whole are broadly supportive of the proposals in Working Paper 168. Because of this, we do not intend to make any changes to our proposal. Working Paper 173 sets out more detail on the responses received to the consultation. 

In CMI_2022 we will also introduce the new “overlay” parameters, described in the consultation, which would allow the Model’s results to be adjusted in a more detailed way than is currently possible.

We intend to increase the weights used for data in subsequent years. We will set out an indicative plan for weights in future years to assist with sensitivity analyses but will only confirm the final weights closer to the release of each new version of the Model.


The paper and accompanying spreadsheet are available to Authorised Users only.

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