The CMI Mortality Projections Model – Interim update

CMI Working Paper 127 was published in December 2019. It contains a number of analyses that are intended to be helpful to users of the CMI Model, including:

  • Discussions of calculation methods for, and interpretation of, confidence intervals for mortality improvements.
  • Mortality improvements by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).
  • Mortality improvements in CMI datasets.
  • International mortality improvements and how England & Wales compares.
  • The impact of calibrating the Model to data for Scotland, Northern Ireland, or the United Kingdom.
  • Uncertainty in population estimates, and the possibility of revisions following the 2021 census.

An updated Working Paper 127 was issued in January 2020 to correct minor issues in Sections 5.1 and 8.1.

Important note: Whilst analysing improvements in the SAPS dataset for Working Paper 144, we discovered that we had inadvertently omitted a number of submissions from the analysis for this working paper. These omitted submissions have been included in the calculations in Working Paper 144, which supersedes the analysis in this working paper, and we have reissued this working paper with a prominent “health warning”.

These outputs are available to Authorised Users only.

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  • The IFoA Conference 2022

    133 Liverpool St, London EC3A 7BX and Online
    22 June 2022 - 23 June 2022
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    We’re delighted to welcome you back to our first in-person conference since early 2020, also being delivered virtually in our first-ever hybrid event. The theme of our inaugural two-day conference is ‘Focusing on tomorrow’s actuary’ and will explore the contribution actuarial science is making to some of tomorrow’s biggest issues.