Papers and reports

The main object of this paper is to propound and discuss a new indifference rule for the prior probabilities in the theory of inverse probability. Being invariant in form on transformation, this new rule avoids the mathematical inconsistencies associated with the classical rule of ‘uniform distribution of ignorance’ and yields results which, particularly in certain critical extreme cases, do not appear to be unreasonable.

The method adopted in the calculation of the tables appended to this note was essentially that of the abridged mortality tables described by George King in JIA v.48. Special formulae were used to suit the form in which the statistics were presented and to deal with the select data of durations 1-4.

The method adopted in the calculation of the tables appended to this note was essentially that of the abridged mortality tables described by George King in JIA v.48. Special formulae were used to suit the form in which the statistics were presented and to deal with the select data of durations 1-4.

The Congress was to have been held at Lucerne in June 1940. When war broke out, most of the papers had been sent in, and the remainder were received not long afterwards. Dr Marchand, in his 1941 report to the Swiss Actuarial Congress, stated that it had been decided to publish these papers. Effect was given to this decision by the production of four volumes, excellently printed and bound in spite of war-time handicaps.

Nearly a century has passed since the original invention of the Card System, that simple but effective and now indispensable instrument for the convenient recording of data and their tabulation and subtabulation under any desired heads, whether for the purpose of calculating ‘exposed to risk’ of mortality, sickness, withdrawal, etc., or for the valuation of contracts. Yet the pages of the Journal contain only brief, scattered and rather inaccessible references to the invention of the method, now such an important part of everyday practice.