Working Paper 164: “All offices” mortality and long-term care experience of equity release mortgage holders in 2016-2019 and 2020

Working Paper 164 was published in October 2022. The paper describes the mortality and long-term care experience of equity release mortgage holders in 2016-2019 and 2020. Results and values underlying charts are available in accompanying spreadsheets.

The analyses show that:

  • For both males and females, the all-ages, all-durations mortality experience of the 2016-2019 dataset is lower than the projected UK population tables (obtained by graduating UK population data) on both a lives-weighted and an amounts-weighted basis.
  • Mortality experience is particularly heavy at younger ages and decreases as age increases for both genders, although there is a slight increase at ages 90+.
  • Mortality experience is heavier for mortgage holders who took out an equity release mortgage at a younger age, although the dataset is relatively immature and we do not have data at long durations so it is not clear how long these differentials would continue as mortgage holders age.
  • Mortality experience in 2020 is higher than in 2016-2019, as might be expected given the COVID-19 pandemic, but the increase is lower than was seen at population level or for annuitants. This may reflect the concentration of COVID-19 deaths for people in care homes, which are not included in the equity release mortgage dataset.
  • Experience for mortality and long-term care exits combined in 2016-2019 is around 5% higher than mortality only experience for males and around 14% higher for females, indicating higher long-term care exits for females

The accompanying results are available in two forms:

The summary results spreadsheets provide a high-level overview of the results but do not allow users to choose an alternative base table. Users wishing to see more granular data, and to alter the comparison basis, should refer to the datasheets.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper.

Note: this paper and the accompanying spreadsheets are available to Authorised Users only.


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