CMI Working Paper 33 further develops the methodology previously used by the CMI Critical Illness Committee to analyse critical illness experience

CMI Working Paper 33 also describes the derivation of best estimate assumptions of the claim development distribution and off rates.

The methodology and assumptions are used to produce results for accelerated critical illness experience on a lives basis for the years 1999-2004. These are the first results the Committee has calculated that properly match claims to exposure, but they do so in terms of settled claims, not diagnosed claims, and so need careful interpretation. Results for 1999-2002 are contained in this paper; results for 2003 and 2004 are being sent to member offices. The interpretation of these results is discussed in the paper which also illustrates the sensitivity of the results to some of the key assumptions.

The Committee now intends to use the revised methodology to produce results for other subsets of critical illness business and to generate realistic claim rates.

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