CMI Working Paper 58 completes the further work identified in Working paper 50, which presented the "AC04 Series" of claim diagnosis rates for accelerated critical illness insurance, on a 'lives' basis, using data for claims settled in the period 2003 to 2006. Specifically, it describes the supplementary analyses designed to aid understanding of the AC04 Series rates.
Specifically, it describes the supplementary analyses designed to aid understanding of the AC04 Series rates. The main assumptions underlying the AC04 Series rates are restated and the sensitivity of the rates to them considered.
The Committee has developed an approach for deriving approximate standard errors to help actuaries to understand and allow for uncertainty associated with the rates. These also provide support for the existence of a select effect by duration.
The paper reports on the experience of subsets of the data to examine whether they exhibit different underlying claims experience and hence whether the characteristics used to define these subsets could be regarded as risk factors not allowed for explicitly in the AC04 Series rates
Two types of analysis were undertaken: a series of one-way analyses and a multivariate analysis, using a generalised linear model. The AC04 Series rates apply only to accelerated critical illness business; this paper also examines the experience of stand-alone business.
CMI Working Paper 58 contains a statement that the Committee intended to recommend the AC04 diagnosis rates for ‘adoption’ by the IFoA.
It was subsequently agreed that the concept of adoption was no longer relevant and this was not pursued. It should not be inferred that there was any dilution of quality standards in respect of the AC04 tables.
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Events calendar
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The Growth Mindset for Actuaries
13 October 2021 - 8 December 2021This practical course is aimed at actuaries at any stage of their career who want to develop their own growth mindset and apply it to their work setting and personal or professional lifelong learning. The content of the course builds on the lecture given by Dr Helen Wright on Growth Mindset as part of the President’s 2021 Lecture series, and will be delivered over a period of 2 months, from mid-October to early December.
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Pioneering Roles for Actuaries in Health and Care
29 November 2021
The role of actuaries within the health sector varies considerably from one country to another, due to differences in the local evolution of health systems and the funding models for health services. -
This paper outlines key frameworks for reserving validation and techniques employed. Many companies lack an embedded reserve validation framework and validation is viewed as piecemeal and unstructured. The paper outlines a case study demonstrating how successful machine learning techniques will become and then goes on to discuss implications. The paper explores common validation approaches and their role in enhancing governance and confidence.
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What next for Mental Health in Insurance?
1 December 2021Content will be aimed at all actuaries looking to understand the issues surrounding mental health in insurance and in particular those looking to ensure products and processes widen access for, and are most useful to, those experiencing periods of poor mental health.
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Pensions Winter Forum: Practical aspects of blending annuities and drawdown in retirement
1 December 2021
The IFoA Policy Briefing 'Can we help consumers avoid running out of money in retirement' examined the benefits of blending a lifetime annuity with income drawdown. Panellists, including providers and advisers, will look at the market practicalities of taking the actuarial theory through into the core advice propositions used by IFAs and Fund Managers. They will share a number of practical issues such as investment consequences before and after retirement and the level of annuity that is appropriate and answer questions from the audience. -
Speech from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey
Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL1 December 2021
The IFoA is pleased to be hosting the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, to deliver a speech on delivering policyholder protection in insurance regulation.
The speech will be presented to an in-person audience, and simultaneously live-streamed, at 14.00 on Wednesday 1st December.
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The Many Faces of Bias
2 December 2021
This webinar looks at the many types of biases, both conscious and unconscious and the impacts they can have in the workplace. Raising our own awareness and understanding of the issues can help us avoid the pitfalls of unconscious bias in particular. We’ve all heard the phrase ‘office banter’ but are we sure that’s how those on the receiving end perceive it and is it ok to go along with it? -
Actuaries need to take action now - but how? With a focus on climate change, this session will provide informed insight to enable you to improve your knowledge and understanding of the issues involved, demonstrate how it will impact advice to your clients, and highlight prospective opportunities for actuaries within pensions and wider fields. -
Pensions Winter Forum: Pension Scams
8 December 2021
Pension scams have become more prevalent as a result of the pandemic, and Trustees have increased responsibilities to protect members, which means that actuaries need to be in a position to provide advice in this area. Our specialist panel will include a professional trustee, an IFA and head administrator, two of whom are members of PASA. -
Sessional Meeting: Allowing for shocks in portfolio mortality models
15 December 2021The covid-19 pandemic creates a challenge for actuaries analysing experience data that includes mortality shocks. To address this we present a methodology for modelling portfolio mortality data that offers local flexibility in the time dimension. The approach permits the identification of seasonal variation, mortality shocks and late-reported deaths. The methodology also allows actuaries to measure portfolio-specific mortality improvements. Results are given for a mature annuity portfolio in the UK
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The Brian Hey Prize 2021 - LocalGLMnet: interpretable deep learning for tabular data
15 December 2021In this webinar, the authors of the 2021 Brian Hey prize winning paper present a new deep learning model called the LocalGLMnet. While deep learning models lead to very competitive regression models, often outperforming classical statistical models such as generalized linear models, the disadvantage is that deep learning solutions are difficult to interpret and explain, and variable selection is not easily possible.
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The dominant underwriting approach is a mix between rule-based engines and traditional underwriting. Applications are first assessed by automated rule-based engines which typically are capable of processing only simple applications. The remaining applications are reviewed by underwriters or referred to the reinsurers. This research aims to construct predictive machine learning models for complicated applications that cannot be processed by rule-based engines.
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Pensions Winter Forum: How to win the pensions endgame
19 January 2022
With the Pension Schemes Act 2021 requiring a long term strategy from Trustees and sponsors, choosing a pensions endgame strategy has become even more critical. However, it is important that the endgame options available are adequately assessed before choosing one. With an ever-increasing array of creative and innovative options available, this decision may not be straightforward.
The role of actuaries within the health sector varies considerably from one country to another, due to differences in the local evolution of health systems and the funding models for health services. 
The IFoA Policy Briefing 'Can we help consumers avoid running out of money in retirement' examined the benefits of blending a lifetime annuity with income drawdown. Panellists, including providers and advisers, will look at the market practicalities of taking the actuarial theory through into the core advice propositions used by IFAs and Fund Managers. They will share a number of practical issues such as investment consequences before and after retirement and the level of annuity that is appropriate and answer questions from the audience.
This webinar looks at the many types of biases, both conscious and unconscious and the impacts they can have in the workplace. Raising our own awareness and understanding of the issues can help us avoid the pitfalls of unconscious bias in particular. We’ve all heard the phrase ‘office banter’ but are we sure that’s how those on the receiving end perceive it and is it ok to go along with it?
Actuaries need to take action now - but how? With a focus on climate change, this session will provide informed insight to enable you to improve your knowledge and understanding of the issues involved, demonstrate how it will impact advice to your clients, and highlight prospective opportunities for actuaries within pensions and wider fields.
Pension scams have become more prevalent as a result of the pandemic, and Trustees have increased responsibilities to protect members, which means that actuaries need to be in a position to provide advice in this area. Our specialist panel will include a professional trustee, an IFA and head administrator, two of whom are members of PASA.
With the Pension Schemes Act 2021 requiring a long term strategy from Trustees and sponsors, choosing a pensions endgame strategy has become even more critical. However, it is important that the endgame options available are adequately assessed before choosing one. With an ever-increasing array of creative and innovative options available, this decision may not be straightforward.