Longevity basis risk arises because different populations, or subpopulations, will inevitably experience different longevity outcomes. This is a significant issue for those wishing to hedge longevity risk using a published mortality index – whether they be pension schemes, insurers, reinsurers, or banks.
This work will be beneficial to a wide variety of organisations and individuals, including pension schemes and their members as well as insurance companies, which write annuity business. These and other institutions which are exposed to, or would like to invest in, longevity risk will gain from a new methodology for quantifying risk related to longevity.
Phase 2: 2016/2017
The purpose of Phase 2 has been to:
- determine the most relevant metrics for measuring longevity basis risk and hedge effectiveness;
- apply the approach in Phase 1 to realistic worked examples based on appropriate data;
- present a robust quantification of basis risk to third parties such as regulators; and
- investigate the potential limitations of the time series processes.
Outputs:
| Research commissioned by: | The IFoA and the LLMA |
|---|---|
| Project conducted by: |
Macquarie University, University of Waterloo, Australian National University and Mercer Australia |
| Commenced: | 2016 |
| Status: | Completed in 2017 |
Phase 1: 2013/2014
Phase 1 of this research focused on producing a methodology that could be used to quantify longevity basis risk and assess the level of risk reduction that might be brought about through the use of an index-based longevity hedge. It resulted in a framework that recognised the fact that different practitioners will have different portfolios, different volumes and histories of experience data, and different constraints of the models that they can use in practice.
Outputs:
| Research commissioned by: | The IFoA and the LLMA |
|---|---|
| Project conducted by: |
The Cass Business School, City University, and Hymans Robertson LLP |
| Commenced: | 2013 |
| Status: | Completed in 2014 |
Contact Details
If you have any questions or wish to discuss any aspect of our funding for member-led research please contact the Research and Knowledge Team:
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Events calendar
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IFoA Members Reception, South Africa
Terrace area, Garden Court Sandton City, Cnr. West & Maude Streets, Sandown, Johannesburg, 219621 October 2019We warmly invite you to join us for a drinks reception, with the opportunity to meet Marjorie Ngwenya, past President of the IFoA, and Ben Kemp, General Counsel.
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CAA Global Event, South Africa
Sandton Convention Centre, 161 Maude St, Sandown, Sandton, 2196, South Africa22 October 2019
CAA Global warmly invites you to join us for a networking reception at the ASSA lounge, with the opportunity to meet Ben Kemp, Director, CAA Global, Mike Mcdougall, CEO of ASSA, and Marjorie Ngwenya, Past President of the IFoA.
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KSS Event – GAD: the 100 year life (Edinburgh)
KPMG Saltire Court 20 Castle Terrace Edinburgh EH1 2EG22 October 2019The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.
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KSS Event – Equity Release Mortgages: The Irish Experience
Room CM S.01 (Second floor, Colin Maclaurin Building, building 22 on the campus map.) Campus maps can be found at https://www.hw.ac.uk/uk/edinburgh/map.htm23 October 2019This is a co-branded KSS/Heriot-Watt University event. Equity release mortgages (ERMs), also called lifetime mortgages, have played an increasing role in generating income for retired home-owners. As new liquidity rules have reduced the supply of bank lending, so insurers have stepped in, encouraged by generous regulatory treatment for annuity writers.
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KSS event – GAD: the 100 year life (Glasgow)
Barnett Waddingham 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ24 October 2019The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) marks its centenary this year. George Russell, formerly Deputy Government Actuary, who currently heads up GAD’s Edinburgh office, leading on GAD support to the devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland, will outline GAD’s development over that period and its range of work today. Having just “celebrated” his 25th anniversary of joining GAD, George will also reflect on some of the challenges and opportunities of advising at the interface of the actuarial and the political worlds.
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NOCA event - The Actuary’s Duty to the Public Interest
N/A25 October 2019Presenter Simon Louw
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Sessional Meeting - Autonomous Vehicles and impacts on the wider insurance industry
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ28 October 2019The Sessional Meeting is now fully booked.
Please click here to register on the waiting list.
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries is running a sessional meeting on autonomous vehicles on 28th October. The session will showcase the work of the IFoA “Autonomous Vehicles” working party alongside a number of expert external presenters.
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ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ30 October 2019
ARC Event: Beyond Proportional Hazards: Statistical methods for assessment of the impact of medical advances and health interventions on longevity and population projections.
This workshop is being delivered by the Actuarial Research Centre’s (ARC) ‘Big Health and Actuarial Data’ Research Programme.
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Hot Topics in Health and Care: Networking and Drinks
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, London WC1V 6DR4 November 2019
This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University. -
SIAS Event: Introduction to the Mortality Research Steering Committee (MRSC)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ5 November 2019The MRSC is responsible for guiding the profession’s research in the areas of longevity, mortality and morbidity such that it is recognised as a thought leader in this area. It has recently been reviewing what the priorities and have identified 6 areas that we believe are the most important areas of research that should be the current focus and these are:
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IAA and IFoA event: Career opportunities in Banking: Retail and Group Risk
Webinar6 November 2019On behalf of the International Actuarial Association’s (IAA) Banking Working Group, the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s (ASSA) Banking Committee and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) Banking Member Interest Group, you are invited to participate in the upcoming webinar entitled Career opportunities in Banking: Retail and Group Risk.
The actuarial profession has much to offer the world of banking. In this second webinar on opportunities for actuaries in banking, we have three actuaries sharing their experiences:
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IFoA CPD Co-ordinators' Briefing
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ7 November 2019The theme of this year’s annual briefing is: Lifelong Learning – providing continuous development for our members.
This event is primarily for volunteer CPD Co-ordinators, who attend to represent their organisation. CPD Co-ordinators play a key role in effective engagement between organisations who employ our members and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA).
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The challenges for AI in Autonomous driving – Professor Andrew Blake
Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, 11 Queen Street, Edinburgh, EH2 1JQ11 November 2019In conjunction with the Scottish Board and supporting the IFoA’s focus on data science.The IFoA’s Scottish Board have arranged for UK pioneer in Computer Vision and Machine Intelligence, Professor Andrew Blake to speak to delegates on the subject of AI in Autonomous driving. This lecture will focus on safety-critical operation and the computation of risk.
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Autumn Pension Seminar
Grand Connaught Rooms, 61-65 Great Queen St, Holborn, London WC2B 5DA13 November 2019Join us for this brand new seminar that brings together our Current Issues in Pensions, Pensions and the Law, and Investment for Pension Actuaries events. The seminar builds on the IFoA’s Annual Pension Conference with sessions covering CDC, TPR’s code of practice, investments, legal updates and Professional Skills Training with a focus on interactive discussion throughout.
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KSS event: How is Scotland’s population changing and what are the implications?
Barnett Waddingham, 163 West George Street, Glasgow, G2 2JJ14 November 2019The National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects, preserves and produces information about Scotland's people and history to inform current and future generations - work that underpins the fabric of Scottish society and tells the story of our nation. This KSS talk will explore the following and other areas impacting Scotland’s changing population, and assess the potential implications of the changes:
- population statistics
- life expectancy
- changes in age structure
- birth and death rates, including causes of death statistics.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (14 November 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA14 November 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional Research Event: Practical guidance to climate change for insurance practitioners
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7QJ18 November 2019Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world. Scientific research points out that it is predominately driven by human activity. It will be a major source of risk and uncertainty for insurers over the coming years. -
NED Event: Building Appropriate Trust and Maintaining Integrity as a Non-Executive Director
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ19 November 2019
Designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This 2 hour workshop is aimed at those members holding Non-Executive Director roles and those aspiring to do so in future.
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Life Conference 2019
The Convention Centre Dublin, Spencer Dock, North Wall Quay, Dublin 120-22 November 2019
The Life Conference is the premier event for professionals interested in life insurance. Offering a wide range of workshops and plenary sessions it’s the perfect opportunity to discover what’s hot and current in life insurance ensuring you get up to date on the latest thinking and innovation whilst meeting and exchanging ideas with a broad range of professionals. -
Professional Skills Training - London (20 November 2019)
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn London WC1V 7Q20 November 2019A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event - Proxy Modelling using Machine Learning: LSMC case study
N/A29 November 2019Presenter Gaurang Mehta
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ARC Workshop: Modelling Socio-Economic Differences in English Mortality
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ2 December 2019
Purpose
The workshop will give participants detailed insights into how a large and detailed dataset can be used to assess levels of mortality inequality in England, using a number of novel statistical methods. We will also address the question: are regional variations in mortality real or imaginary? -
Autumn Lecture 2019, London - Dr Kay Swinburne
Lincoln's Inn The Treasury Office, London WC2A 3TL2 December 2019Change of Speaker Notification
Thank you for registering for the IFoA’s 2019 Autumn Lecture event. As you know, we had originally invited the Rt. Hon Nicky Morgan to speak, however, her appointment to Government as a senior Minister means she has subsequently left her position as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee. Unfortunately, in her new role, she will no longer be able to speak at our event.
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Autumn Lecture 2019: Live Streaming
Webinar2 December 2019Change of Speaker Notification
Thank you for registering for the IFoA’s 2019 Autumn Lecture event. As you know, we had originally invited the Rt. Hon Nicky Morgan to speak, however, her appointment to Government as a senior Minister means she has subsequently left her position as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee. Unfortunately, in her new role, she will no longer be able to speak at our event.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (3 December 19)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA3 December 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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SIAS Event: Discount Rates are Flawed
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ3 December 2019This talk will be given by Jon Spain who, as far back as 1983, has been working independently, trying to bring “long-term” back to UK actuarial thinking. His current focus is on discount rates (see discrate.com).
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A holistic study into Cash flow Driven Investment
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK4 December 2019Given that Cashflow Driven Investment strategy has attracted growing interests from pension funds and insurers at the backdrop of current market conditions and clients’ circumstances, the objective of this event is to gather thought leaders from asset managers, banks and insurers to offer attendees their perspectives and insights on main aspects of consideration when adopting this strategy. -
Professional Skills Training - London (10 December 2019)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ10 December 2019A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NOCA event - Model disclosures and Risk frameworks
N/A13 December 2019Presenter Russell Osman, FIA
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SIAS Event: My Journey to Data Science, Big Data and AI
Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ7 January 2020Patrick Lee is an actuary who has made the transition to working in software architecture and artificial intelligence (AI). He holds Microsoft Professional qualifications in Data Science, Big Data and AI and is currently working towards a DevOps (the automation of software testing and deployment) qualification. He is a member of the IFoA Council and is also President of the Wessex Actuarial Society. He is also a member of the IFoA and the RSS's joint Data Science Focus Group and will talk on the ethical use of AI.
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Behavioural Finance Research Launch- 14 January 2020
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR14 January 2020We are delighted to announce the launch of the findings from our ARC funded Behavioural Finance research with a special evening event at Staple Inn on Tuesday 14th January 2020. Entitled Behavioural Aspects of Institutional Investment Decision-Making, this research programme is being delivered by City, University of London, Leeds University Business School and Ipsos.
This event is now full. Please register for the waiting list.
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IFoA Volunteer Recognition Reception
Staple Inn, 4 High Holborn, Holborn, London WC1V 6DR, UK15 January 2020As a thank you to all our Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) volunteers, you are invited to join us at Staple Inn Hall, for an evening of drinks, canapes and networking, in London.
IFoA President, John Taylor, will be attending and will make a speech
If you support the IFoA as a volunteer (member or non-member), or in any other role, and you are going to be in London on 15 January, please book your place and join us at this reception.
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Professional Skills Training - London (16 January 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ16 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (23 January 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA23 January 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals: The role of actuaries
N/A31 January 2020Presenters: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Faye Alessandrello, Policy Manager, IFoA
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Professional Skills Training - London (11 February 2020)
Staple Inn, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ11 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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Sessional: Impact of E-cigarettes Working Party
Royal College of Physicians, 9 Queen St, Edinburgh EH2 1JQ24 February 2020This sessional meeting will be of direct interest to actuaries and others working in the in the Health and Care, Life or Pensions sectors or indeed actuaries with an interest in morbidity or mortality. -
Professional Skills Training - Edinburgh (25 February 2020)
IFoA (Edinburgh), Level 2, Exchange Crescent 7 Conference Square Edinburgh EH3 8RA25 February 2020A Trusted Profession
A 2 hour CPD event designed to meet the IFoA’s Stage 3 Professional Skills Training under the IFoA’s CPD Scheme 2019/2020. This session is suitable for actuaries working in any area (i.e. it is not specifically aimed at Pensions, GI or any other technical discipline) and is interactive, so you should come along prepared to take part in the discussions.
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NoCA event - Model Risk
N/A28 February 2020Presenter: Mark Pibworth
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NoCA event - Intergenerational Fairness: Thinking long-term
N/A27 March 2020Presented By: Rebecca Deegan, Head of Policy, IFoA, and Catherine Burtle, Senior Policy Analyst, IFoA
This evening will feature two new cases studies that highlight the implications for insurers of issues impacting on health and mortality for life, pensions, and health and care products; Impactability modelling: a worked example in Type II diabetes presented by Josephine Robertson, and Seasonal Mortality in England and Wales 1993-2016 presented by Mary Hall, Dublin City University.