One of the main responsibilities of the Mortality Research Steering Committee (MRSC) is to steer the Profession’s research relating to the demographic risks of mortality, morbidity and longevity. We have reviewed what we believe should be the priorities for research activity and have identified five areas.
1. Predicting future population mortality improvement
The IFoA (through the CMI) provides the Mortality Projections Model, which is a world-leading model that smooths recent trends in mortality and blends it into projected long-term mortality improvements. However, there is no equivalent robust and reliable method for deriving plausible population mortality improvement assumptions from more discrete data sources (such as a cause of death data), necessarily supported by subjective judgements. The MRSC wants to see a methodology created that does this, and our current approach is to use a bespoke multiple cause of death dataset provided by the ONS.
The MRSC has undertaken to produce a model that provides a method of deriving plausible population mortality improvement assumptions for the UK general population by looking at data showing deaths by cause, and then considering how these may change in the future as a result of longevity ‘catalysts’. As an initial step to understanding these longevity catalysts and their potential impacts on different cause of death groups, a paper ‘Universe of Longevity Catalysts: Call For Research’ has been written that sets out a universe of material catalysts and which causes of death they are most likely to impact.
The MRSC steering committee are now looking for the assistance of the actuarial community and its wider contacts to help identify research that can provide evidence to help parameterise the resulting model. We are asking people to read this paper and let us know of any research that has been carried out in the areas identified.
2. Forecasting trends in morbidity
Forecasting morbidity is currently a difficult task, as morbidity trends are complex, influenced by changes in the biological incidence of diseases and affected by changes in diagnostic techniques. We want to improve the understanding of these trends and their interactions to help maintain access to protection products serving a strong consumer need, and also provides richer insights into mortality and longevity trends.
The MRSC intends to address this priority by a) engaging with academics carrying out morbidity research to highlight those areas of most interest to the actuarial profession b) supporting the IFoA’s activities to break down barriers restricting access to data that can improve public understanding of morbidity
3. Supporting the profession's efforts to resolve the challenge of providing older age care
In recent years the UK population has aged significantly and is expected to continue to age in the future. As a result, the number of people requiring good quality care has increased but the provision of the required care has not met the needs of society. The solutions that the actuarial profession can devise may help to address this issue and the MRSC can contribute to this.
4. Managing risk in products providing longevity protection
The risk management of longevity is still in its infancy and there are a number of aspects that could improve this:
- Creation of an industry standard definition of all the risks behaviours underlying longevity risk.
- Development of a method to benchmark the output of different risk models used by individual companies using this standard definition.
- Identification of new ways to reduce risk using this standard definition to identify the intrinsic and avoidable risks.
- Consideration of the differing longevity risk exposures of different kinds of beneficiaries
5. Longevity in the Post Covid World
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to many areas of life since the beginning of 2020 and this disruption is likely to affect mortality improvements and expectations of mortality improvement for many years to come. The uncertainty this causes is likely to be an ongoing challenge to longevity practitioners and the MRSC will look to broaden and share understanding of the issues ranging from the impact on health care provision to changes in individual behaviour. Since 2021 the MRSC has been sponsoring a webinar series on this topic and we would welcome any suggestions for topics or other activities that would be of benefit to members of the actuarial profession and the wider public.
Further details can be found at https://www.lmaforum.org.uk/ or via Linked In”
We have started to work on advancing the five areas above and we will publish any research and outputs on these areas via the IFoA website. For more information on Secondary Priorities and a summary of some of the research outputs above, please look at our Secondary Priorities page.
We would welcome any further feedback or comments on our research priorities. Please let us know any comments at research@actuaries.org.uk.
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