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Mortality and Longevity Webinar Series 2020

Wednesday 22 July 2020 08:00 - Monday 10 August 2020 13:00

This webinar series will provide topical and practical updates and discussion on the latest thinking and innovations in mortality and longevity, and is designed to be very accessible to a broad range of experience.

Recordings of webinars can be purchased by visiting our Online Learning Resource page covering mortality and demographics. 
Video costs: Members £15.00 | Non-Members £35

Audience

The series is designed for life, pensions and health and care actuaries, academics, researchers, underwriters and related practitioners eager to learn about the latest developments in mortality and longevity.  

Please click on the links below to book on. 

22nd July

09:00-10:00: 'Researching research' - how to make use of medical research papers

Insurers are making increasing use of medical research to help with assumption, models and underwriting

Experienced mortality/ longevity specialists discuss the issues in the interpretation of  medical research papers, using a range of case studies.  The case studies will include COVID-19 points of current importance. Many of the concepts discussed (data bias, inference of causation) are also applicable to equivalent questions in 'big data' and advanced analytics.

Speakers: Matthew Edwards, Willis Towers Watson and Dan Ryan, COIOS Research

12.00-12.50: What can we learn from mortality by cause of death?

Members of the Mortality Working Group of the IAA have analysed changes in mortality for about 30 causes of death  and will discuss the following:

  • how causes of death are classified, and the problems of long-term data
  • appropriate metrics, including "years of life lost" (YLL)*
  • causes of death - a "measure of cohortness"
  • the changes in dominant causes of death at older ages

Can these types of studies enhance mortality forecasting.

Speaker: Dov Raphael, Consulting Actuary

23rd July

12.00-13.00: Towards Precision Insurance: dynamic hazards modelling in Big Data

Predictive risk assessment and risk stratification models based on postcode-level consumer classification are widely used for life insurance underwriting. However, these are socio-economic models not directly related to health information. Similar to precision medicine, precision life insurance should aim to tailor policy pricing/reserving to the individual health characteristics of each client.

In real life, people develop new health conditions, lifestyle habits, and they can start and stop a certain treatment regime at any time.

Additionally, clinical guidelines are regularly updated with new evidence, resulting in new eligibility criteria and treatment courses. This requires the ability to dynamically classify clients into time-varying subgroups with the predictable life expectancy based on the presence of evolving health-related conditions, treatments and outcomes.

In this talk, we demonstrate how the landmark survival modelling of electronic health records (EHR) can be used for dynamic prediction of individual and population life expectancy. 

We discuss a case-study based on landmark analysis of the use of statins. For this case study, we consider a cohort of 110,243 participants who reached age 60 between 1990-2000 with no previous history of cardiovascular disease or statin prescription at baseline. Participants’ medical history was updated at ‘landmark’ time points occurring every six months.

Speaker: Elena Kulinskaya, University of East Anglia

28th July

12:00-13:00: Clusters and correlations in international mortality trends

Over the past decades, many countries have exhibited mortality rates approximately following a piecewise linear law. This is visible in the form of steady improvements over multiple years, followed by a rather abrupt trend change, and then again stable improvements according to the new trend. We investigate trend change events across various countries and both genders in detail, revealing cross-country clusters and serial correlations in the trend change signs. This sheds light on how population mortalities may evolve with respect to each other, which can be helpful in setting correlation assumptions in internal models.

Speaker: Florian Gomez, Partner Re

6th August

13:00-14:00: A New Framework for Future Mortality

Our presentation will examine the challenges arising in setting mortality improvement assumptions, exposing known but under-explored vulnerabilities of current practices. 

An entirely new framework is proposed, one built around the characteristics of short-, medium- and long-term outlooks, which puts greater weight on forward-looking (rather than extrapolative) approaches. We will also discuss herding and “group think” and why these might be problematic.

Speakers: Richard Marshall and Kenneth McIvor, Willis Towers Watson with Nicola Oliver, Medical Intelligence

10th August

09:00-10:00: Beyond control - what could be our next big health threat?

As an industry, it has been important to be able to look to the future to identify the next quantifiable risk. In this session, I will explore some of the less tangible, but none-the-less concerning risks to future health, such as the health risks associated with exposure to pesticides, ingestion of plastic in the food chain, and the hazards of indoor air pollution through exposure to volatile organic compounds.

Speaker: Nicola Oliver, Medical Intelligence

12:00-13:00: The IFoA diabetes working party - our journey so far

The working party will help the industry to update and enhance how potential risk from diabetes and excess mortality is considered, including the need to understand the underwriting implications as treatments improve, and potentially to develop new products that are tailored to those with diabetes.

Speakers: Scott Reid, Zurich and Nicola Oliver, Medical Intelligence

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