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CMI Mortality Projections Model 2016 Launched

The latest CMI Mortality Projections Model – ‘CMI_2016’ – was released on 28 March 2017 based on statistical analysis of England & Wales population data up to 31 December 2016. It's findings include:

  • Recent population data has highlighted that, since 2011, the rate at which mortality is improving has been slower than in previous years
  • However, mortality is expected to continue to improve and there is significant uncertainty as to whether this will be at a slower rate than experienced in the first decade of this century
  • Analysis of recent data suggests that mortality rates for members of defined benefit pension schemes improved at a faster rate than the general population.

The CMI Mortality Projections Model is the model used by many UK pension schemes and insurance companies as a framework for them to form estimates of future changes in mortality. The first version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model was released in 2009 and it has been updated regularly since then to reflect emerging mortality data.

Recent versions of the Model have highlighted that, since 2011, population data shows that the rate at which mortality is improving has been slower than in previous years. It is, however, important to understand that mortality is expected to continue to improve and there is significant uncertainty as to whether this will be at a slower rate compared with the higher improvements seen in the first decade of this century.

The CMI’s analysis of its own pension scheme dataset suggests that the reduction in rates of mortality improvements observed in the national population between 2011 and 2015 has been less marked for defined benefit pension scheme members.

James Tait, Chairman of the CMI Executive Committee, said:

We are delighted to launch the latest iteration of the CMI’s Mortality Projection Model, featuring the latest data and up-to-date statistical analysis. The model is an important tool for the UK Pensions and Insurance markets, and the CMI will continue to produce high-quality projections and analysis for the benefit of these industries, and other users.

CMI_2016 has thrown more light on some very interesting trends – namely that, in recent years, the rate at which mortality is improving has been slower than in the first decade of this century. Although it is highly likely that mortality will continue to improve, there is significant uncertainty as to whether this recent slowing in the rate of improvement will continue.  The slowing raises important questions about contributing factors. Indeed, our analysis of pensions data implies that the causes could be more complex and stratified than the pure life expectancy figures, that only consider population data in aggregate alone, would suggest.”

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