Increases in life expectancy between 2011 and 2015 much lower than in the past

Analysis released today (28 September) by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) shows that increases in life expectancy between 2011 and 2015 have been much lower than in the past. And life expectancy at age 75 has shown no improvement at all between 2011 and 2015.

Between 2000 and 2011 life expectancy increased by over three months per year on average. If that trend had continued then life expectancy in 2015 would have been thirteen months higher than in 2011. However, the CMI’s analysis shows an increase of only four months, meaning that nine months of potential life expectancy have been lost.

The picture is potentially even worse at high ages: life expectancy at age 75 was expected to have increased by over seven months between 2011 and 2015, but the CMI’s analysis shows no improvement at all.

Tim Gordon, Chairman of the CMI, said, ‘Insurers and pension funds will need to consider whether this recent experience indicates a fundamental change in mortality improvement trends, or whether it is a short term variation due to influences such as influenza and cold winters – the financial implications are material.’

ENDS

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Annette Heninger
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Notes to editor

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) provides authoritative and independent mortality tables and projections that underpin the prudential and financial reporting of almost all for UK life insurers and pension funds.

The CMI’s analysis accompanies the 2015 update of its Mortality Projections Model, which is used widely throughout the pensions and life insurance industry to estimate life expectancy. It was first published in 2009 and is updated annually based on new mortality experience.

CMI is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.