The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released its latest Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2018. There is a growing consensus in the industry that, while mortality will continue to improve, the rates of mortality improvement over the next decade will be slower than the very high rates of improvement seen in the first decade of this century. When compared with the previous CMI_2017 Model, cohort life expectancies at age 65 are around five months lower for both males and females, at 19.8 years and 22.4 years, respectively.
The CMI Model estimates current mortality improvements by smoothing historical mortality rates. The smoothed data suggests that mortality improvements peaked some time ago with the highest improvements seen in 2004 for males and in 2006 for females. The version released today uses data for calendar years 1978-2018 and has been adjusted to place more weight on the lower mortality improvements in recent years. The resulting lower estimates of current mortality improvements lead to lower cohort life expectancies.
Tim Gordon, Chair, CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:
“It’s now widely accepted that mortality improvements in the general population since 2011 have been much lower than in the earlier part of this century. Average mortality improvements between 2000 and 2011 were typically over 2 per cent per year but have since fallen to around 0.5 per cent per year. The causes of the slowdown, and whether these current low improvements will persist, remain a subject of considerable debate. The CMI_2018 Model itself reflects increasing evidence that the lower level of improvements may be due to medium or long-term influences, rather than just short-term volatility.”
“The changes to the latest model are designed to reflect evolving thinking on the most appropriate methods. The CMI seeks to provide reliable data and, more importantly, analysis to help those working in pensions and insurance to understand how mortality may change in the years ahead. Since October 2018, we have also been providing analysis on England & Wales population mortality every quarter. This allows us to track mortality through the year and better understand how it will impact future mortality projections.”
For more information on The Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2018, please see the Briefing Note.
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager
Tel: 07525 592 198
Notes to Editors
- CMI Mortality Projections Model CMI_2018 Briefing Note. March 2018
- Cohort life expectancy depends on assumed future changes in mortality. It is a subjective measure, and is typically used by actuaries who need to use realistic assumptions about what may happen in the future. Cohort life expectancy changes if the assumptions about future mortality change. In contrast, period life expectancy depends only on past mortality rates. It is an objective measure that is often reported by the Office for National Statistics.
- The current CMI Mortality Projections Model was introduced in 2009 to replace previous projections and has been updated on a broadly annual basis since then. It is based on mortality data for the population of England & Wales, published by the Office for National Statistics.
- The Model is typically used by UK pension schemes and insurance companies which need to make assumptions about future mortality rates. The Model does not provide an assumption around long-term mortality improvements, requiring users to make their own assessment. The cohort life expectancies above use an illustrative long-term rate for mortality improvements of 1.5% per year.
- The illustrative cohort life expectancies are based on the general population of England & Wales. Life expectancy for different groups, such as particular pension schemes and groups of policyholders, can vary considerably, and the CMI encourages users of the CMI Model to make appropriate assumptions for the purpose that it is being used for.
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