The research found that the evidence for resource constraints is significant and that these constraints are not presently factored in to decision making by actors* for the global economy or business leaders in a meaningful and proactive fashion.
At present there is a largely reactive approach to resource constraints. These can have significant economic impact and this can result in social and political shockwaves, as seen recently with the Arab Spring and food shortages.
Using actuarial modelling techniques that project ahead for 25 years and longer, and applying this model to pensions, several scenarios were generated, ranging from positive to severely negative. The positive outcomes shared a reliance upon proactive decision making by key actors in the global economy as well as by business leaders. Reactive policies and responses to resource constraints all led to negative outcomes and in one scenario this led to the collapse of pension savings.
Peter Tompkins, from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries said;
“Despite strong evidence that there is a risk that resource constraints could have significant economic impacts, these risks are not being factored in by many actors in the global economy.
“Our research is focused, in particular, on the impact to the financial services industry and to businesses. Modelling work suggests that factoring resource constraints into risk management measures now could significantly limit future damage. Our research finds that many current savings structures, such as pension schemes, may have to be re-designed if we are entering a low-growth economic paradigm.
“Actuaries have a key role to play in advising decision makers on risk. With this research we aim to help actuaries to lead the way in modelling these risk factors and providing a voice for these risks within their sectors.”
Dr Aled Jones Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University and an author of the report said;
“This is the first time resource constraint data has been applied to the financial services sector using actuarial modelling techniques. The resulting scenarios are compelling. We will be running more models for other sectors of the financial services industry across 2013 and look forward to sharing our results with corporate leaders and policy makers who are interested in seeing how such data can be practically applied and utilised in decision making processes.”
The research is available on www.actuaries.org.uk
* Actors references decision makers for the global economy.
Notes to editors:
A jpeg image of Peter Tompkins and Dr Aled Jones are available on request.
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More about the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
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