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Mortality Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination in England: publication of models and an update

This paper presents updated data and findings, as a follow-up to the earlier paper. The associated actuarial and machine learning models are published for open access.

Our results of experience in 80+ age group show:

  • Vaccination rates exceeded 90% by 7¬†February 2021
  • 75.7% of community antibody positivity over the period 4¬†February to 3 March 2021
  • 67% reduction in hospital mortality and 60% reduction in registered deaths, as of mid-March
  • During the period from mid-January 2021 until the end of February 2021, vaccination is estimated to have prevented 8,000 deaths
  • During the period from mid-January 2021 until 12 March 2021, vaccination is estimated to have prevented over 10,000 deaths

The above was compared against research published by Public Health England and Warwick University on 26 March 2021. PHE reported an estimated reduction of 6100 deaths up to the end of February 2021, while Warwick University estimated reduction of 6600 deaths. All three models adopted counterfactual approaches, but our model is based on real world data and does not rely on assumptions for vaccine uptake and effectiveness.

The COVID-19 vaccines are already preventing deaths at scale in England, where initially rolled out in first doses and from two brands, namely Pfizer and AstraZeneca.

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