The IFoA’s Head of Public Affairs and Research, Annette Spencer, gave a presentation to the Casualty Actuarial Society on the “Story of Brexit” last year. View the presentation for a more in-depth analysis of the timeline and attitudes that influenced the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
|7 May, 2015||Conservative Mandate||In the general election, David Cameron wins a 12-seat majority with a manifesto that includes the commitment to hold an in/out referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.|
|23 June, 2016||The Referendum||The referendum sees Leave campaigners win a narrow victory with 51.9% against and 48.1% for Remain. Mr Cameron resigns immediately as Prime Minister.|
|13 July, 2016||New PM||Theresa May becomes Prime Minister.|
|17 January, 2017||Lancaster House Speech||
The PM gives her first speech setting out the type of Brexit deal she will be pursuing when formal negotiations begin. The key points covered in the speech included:
|29 March, 2017||Article 50||The PM triggers Article 50 which starts the clock on the process of the UK leaving the EU.|
|8 June, 2017||Snap Election||Having surprised many by calling a general election, the PM loses her majority in Parliament. Northern Ireland's DUP - led by Arlene Foster - makes a deal with the Conservatives and its votes allow the PM to stay in power.|
|26 June, 2017||Negotiations Begin||Formal negotiations on withdrawal begin between the UK and the EU.|
|22 September, 2017||Florence Speech||
In an effort to break a deadlock in the negotiations, the PM set out the UK's position on how to move Brexit talks forward on the following key areas:
|13 December, 2017||Westminster Rebellion||Rebel Tory MPs side with the Opposition, forcing the government to guarantee a vote on the final Brexit deal, when it has been struck with Brussels.|
|15 December, 2017||Negotiations Phase 2||The EU agrees to move on to the second phase of negotiations after an agreement is reached on the Brexit “divorce bill”, Irish border and EU citizens’ rights.|
|2 March, 2018||Mansion House Speech||
The PM gives a third speech outlining her plans for the next phase of negotiations. Topics included:
|19 March, 2018||Negotiations Progress||The UK and EU make decisive steps in negotiations. Agreements include dates for a transitional period after Brexit day, the status of EU citizens in the UK before and after that time and fishing policy. Issues still to be sorted out include the Northern Ireland border.|
|6 July, 2018||Chequers Statement||
The Government forms a final list of demands from the EU at a ‘Cabinet Away Day’, attempting to reach a general consensus on the content of the Brexit legislation, and how the final round of negotiations will progress. It covered:
Preparation for a ‘no deal Brexit’
|12 July, 2018||White Paper Published||The Government published its Brexit White Paper, outlining the Government's approach to managing the country's withdrawal from the EU.|
|15 November, 2018||The Clock Runs Out||Theresa May presented the deal to Parliament.|
|25 November, 2018||EU Summit||EU Leaders agree to the Prime Ministers Brexit deal.|
14 January, 2019
|Vote||The Government was defeated in a 'meaningful vote' on the Withdrawal Agreement|
|12 March, 2019||Second Vote||The Government held its second 'meaningful vote' on the Withdrawal agreement which was defeated.|
|21 March, 2019||Extension||The Prime Minister secured a short extension to Article 50 to delay Brexit until 12 April. The EU has said that agreement on a further extension of Article 50 to the end of May would be possible, but only if the UK approves a withdrawal agreement before 12 April.|
|10 April 2019||Second Extension||
The Prime Minister and EU leaders agreed to a flexible extension of Article 50 until 31 October 2019. The UK has until this date to agree and pass a withdrawal deal.
|23 - 26 May, 2019||European Elections||The UK participates in European Elections, selecting 73 MEPs in 12 multi-member regional constituencies.|
|24 May, 2019||Theresa May resigns||Theresa May declares that she will step down as Prime Minister on 7 June 2019. The Conservative Party will select a new leader and Prime Minister. The new Government will take the lead in delivering Brexit.|
|24 July 2019||Boris Johnson confirmed as new Prime Minister||Boris Johnson succeeds Theresa May as the UK's 55th Prime Minister|
|17 October 2019||EU Summit||The final scheduled summit of EU leaders before the October 31 deadline begins in Brussels. The Prime Minister announces that a revised deal has been struck.|
|19 October 2019||Benn Act Deadline||
In accordance with the terms of the Benn Act, the PM asked the EU for a further extension of its departure date, as a deal had not been approved by Parliament, and Parliament did not consent to the UK leaving with no-deal.
|22 October 2019||MPs Vote on the Withdrawal Agreement||
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill passes its second stage reading in the House of Commons, but failed to pass its program motion, ensuring that the UK's departure on the 31 October would be delayed, with the EU’s agreement.
|28 October 2019||EU Agrees to Extension||
The European Union agreed to grant the U.K. up to three more months to finalise its departure. Brexit will take place on the first day of the month following the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, “or on 1 February 2020, whichever is the earliest.”
|1 December 2019||First Possible Departure Date||According to the terms of the extension of Article 50, the UK can leave the EU on this date if the House of Commons and the European Parliament ratify the exit deal before this date.|
|12 December 2019||General Election||A General Election was held and a new majority Government was formed.|
|23 January 2020||Withdrawal Agreement Bill||The EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill receives Royal Assent|
|31 January 2020||Second Possible Departure Date||The UK Leaves the EU and enters into the transition period.|
The ongoing negotiations between Westminster and the EU are constantly changing. There is still much uncertainty surrounding both how, and when, we will depart from the EU.
As the existing state of affairs develops we will endeavour to keep you updated with the latest news. Should you want any further information please contact the IFoA Policy team – firstname.lastname@example.org
Filter or search events
As part of the ARC Webinar Series 2021, this webinar will review the work of the UEA/Aviva research team over the last four years on a major research programme funded by the IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre.
Climate change poses a significant threat across many regions and sectors, and businesses. Insurers and asset managers, must play a role in ensuring transparency around climate related risks and opportunities.
Whilst insurers have been performing stress and scenario testing for many years, in the last 12 months the PRA has increased its focus on the ability to identify, measure and increase financial and operational resilience.
There is widening debate that many of our social, financial and regulatory institutions need to be rethought so that we can create more sustainable futures, particularly in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the policy/macro-economic response to the pandemic and how it affects consumers, as well as the impending climate crisis. This multi-day series of three keynote webinars, individually presented by leading economist John Kay, Sir Paul Collier, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Ashok Gupta, Chair at Mercer Ltd, and Nico Aspinall, Chief Investment Officer at B&CE, will open up discussion on these essential topics. The series will culminate in a panel session with Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane.
This webinar provides an overview of the state of the UK protection market, and how different insurers are using different levels of sophistication to price (such as using customer demand models). It considers how insurers have implemented these sophisticated pricing techniques, and the practical challenges they have faced.
This discussion will revolve around the latest industry developments including and introduction to Part VII transfers and Schemes of Arrangement (process, parties involved and recent events), insights and lessons from recent with-profits transactions and restructurings (including Equitable Life and Pru-Rothesay), how firms can apply these learnings to future arrangements, and the outlook for future with-profits transactions and restructurings (including the impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit)
What is stewardship and how has the landscape changed under the 2020 UK Stewardship Code? How does effective stewardship create long term value for beneficiaries and what roles do asset owners and asset managers play in active stewardship. This webinar will offer answers to these questions in a practical approach to stewardship reporting.
Dr Catherine Donnelly will present the basics of the structures for pooling longevity risks and summarise recent research results in this area in addition to outlinging future research around this topic. This is work under a research programme funded by the IFoA's Actuarial Research Centre, called 'Minimizing longevity and investment risk while optimising future pension plans'.
Mis-estimation risk is a key element of demographic risk, and past work has focused on mis-estimation risk on a run-off basis. However, this does not meet the requirements of regulatory regimes like Solvency II, which demands that capital requirements are set through the prism of a finite horizon like one year. This paper presents a value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk suitable for Solvency II work.