CMI Working Paper 202

Working Paper 202 was published in July 2025. The paper describes the experience of mortality and accelerated critical illness (ACI) term assurances in 2023. Results are compared with updated 2022 experience, as well as the combined 2016-2019 period.

For the first in an annual term assurance experience report, analysis is included by cause of death (for mortality benefits).

The analyses show:

• The mortality experience in 2023 is around 4% lighter than is expected by the T16 tables (with no allowance for trends), compared with 1% lighter in the updated 2022 data. Experience in 2023 is broadly similar for both female smoker status subsets in 2023, however for males the results show non-smoker experience was heavier than smoker experience (noting the use of smoker-specific comparator tables). The 2022 experience is marginally heavier for all subsets than 2023 but generally still lighter than the expected basis.
• The ACI experience is close to that expected by the AC16 tables in 2023 (1% higher) and in line with the tables for 2022. Experience in 2023 is lighter for both smoker subsets than its corresponding non-smoker subset (again, noting the use of smoker-specific comparator tables). 2022 experience was generally lighter across all subsets other than female smokers where 2022 experience is considerably heavier than 2023.

We have also published a spreadsheet that includes the values used in the charts in the working paper..

Note: this paper and the spreadsheet are available to Authorised Users only.